Ravens vs Colts — NFL Prop Betting Model
Sun, Sept. 13, 2026 · 1:00 p.m. ET · Lucas Oil Stadium · CBS
Market: BAL -3.5 / 47.5
Weather: Retractable roof. Treat it as indoor. Ignore the outdoor rain number.
Lamar and Henry on the road against Daniel Jones coming back from last year’s Achilles tear. Pittman is gone. This is a Ravens script with two featured backs, not a 31–28 track meet.
1. Ravens vs Colts Game Setup
- Implied market scores: Ravens ~25.5, Colts ~22
- Model score: Ravens 27, Colts 20
- Model total: 47 vs 47.5 → Lean Under
- Cover lean: Ravens -3.5
- Script: Road favorite, Henry scores, Lamar throws two, Taylor still finds the end zone, Jones stays under his yard line.
2. Ravens vs Colts Score Worksheet
| Period | BAL | IND | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | 7 | 3 | Henry or Lamar early |
| H1 | 17 | 10 | Ravens control |
| Final | 27 | 20 | Baltimore answers |
Game type: Favorite win, run-heavy, one-score-to-two-score
Team totals: Ravens 27 · Colts 20
3. Why this score
47.5 assumes Jones looks like a full starter immediately. He does not need to. A 20-point Colts total is Taylor plus one passing score and a field goal. A 27-point Ravens total is Henry plus two Lamar passing TDs. That combination hits the Under and still covers -3.5. Last 10 meetings have leaned Under; this version of Indianapolis has less WR firepower after Pittman left.
4. Ravens vs Colts Correlated Prop Board
A. Passing
| Player | Market | Play | Why it matches 27–20 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | Pass TDs 1.5 | Over | 27-point Ravens total |
| Lamar Jackson | Pass yds ~220.5 | Under / small Over only at 216.5 | Run-first closer |
| Lamar Jackson | Rush yds ~37.5 | Over | Dual-threat closer |
| Daniel Jones | Pass TDs 1.5 | Under | 20-point Colts total |
| Daniel Jones | Pass yds ~233.5 | Under | Rust + no Pittman |
B. Rushing
| Player | Market | Play | Why it matches 27–20 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | Anytime TD | Yes | Cleanest Ravens prop on the board |
| Derrick Henry | Rush yds ~80.5 | Lean Over | Workhorse if they lead |
| Jonathan Taylor | Anytime TD | Yes | Cleanest Colts prop |
| Jonathan Taylor | Rush yds ~76.5 | Lean Over if game stays within 10 | Featured back |
C. Receiving
| Player | Market | Play | Why it matches 27–20 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | Anytime TD | Yes at plus money | Do not stack with Henry and Lamar 1.5 |
| Mark Andrews | Rec yds ~35 | Under | Volume is thin lately |
| Tyler Warren / Josh Downs | Rec yds | One small Over, not both | Jones checkdowns if they trail |
D. Game props
| Market | Play |
|---|---|
| Game total 47.5 | Lean Under |
| Ravens -3.5 | Yes |
| First team to score | Slight Baltimore |
| Henry first TD | Live at plus money |
| OT | No |
5. Ravens vs Colts Same Game Parlay
- Ravens -3.5
- Henry Anytime TD
- Lamar Over 1.5 pass TDs
Alternate 3-leg: Ravens -3.5 + Henry Anytime TD + Jones Under pass yards
Do not add: Jones Over 1.5 pass TDs, Lamar 250+ pass yards, three anytime TDs plus the Under.
6. Ravens vs Colts Final Card
Score pick: Ravens 27, Colts 20
Primary correlated props
- Ravens -3.5
- Derrick Henry Anytime TD
- Lamar Jackson Over 1.5 passing TDs
- Jonathan Taylor Anytime TD
- Daniel Jones Under passing yards (~233.5)
- Ravens 1st Half -1.5
SGP: Ravens -3.5 + Henry Anytime TD + Lamar Over 1.5 pass TDs
Skip: Jones passing-TD Over, Andrews yard Over, Flowers + Henry + Taylor stacked with the Over.
