Patriots vs Seahawks Score and Correlated Prop Bets
Wed, Sept. 9, 2026 · 8:20 p.m. ET · Lumen Field · NBC
Market: SEA -3.5 / 44.5
Weather: Mid-70s at kick, light north wind, no rain. Weather is not a reason to bet the Under.
This is a Super Bowl LX rematch. Seattle is the home favorite and defending champ; New England is the road underdog with Drake Maye and new receivers (A.J. Brown, Romeo Doubs). Seattle is without Kenneth Walker III (now in Kansas City) and Zach Charbonnet (PUP). TreVeyon Henderson has not practiced and is a real Week 1 doubt, which funnels Patriots early-down work to Rhamondre Stevenson.
1. Game Setup
- Implied market scores: Seattle ~24, New England ~20–21
- Model score: Seahawks 23, Patriots 17
- Model total: 40 vs 44.5 → Under
- Cover lean: Seattle -3.5 (small), moneyline Seattle
- Script: Home favorite, one-score-to-two-score win. Seattle leads most of the night. Patriots play from behind in spots but never turn this into a track meet. Two good defenses, new Seattle backfield, cross-country opener for New England.
2. Score Worksheet
| Period | NE | SEA | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | 3 | 7 | Seattle scores first more often than not |
| H1 | 10 | 13 | Tight, field-goal heavy |
| Final | 17 | 23 | Seattle adds one late score / clock-kill drive |
Game type: Defensive grind / modest home-favorite win
Score Prediction: Team totals: Patriots 17 · Seahawks 23
3. Why this score
Seattle should still be the better team at home, but the offense that beat New England in February is different: Walker is gone, Charbonnet is out, and a rookie (Jadarian Price) is the likely lead back in a committee with George Holani.
New England’s offense is more talented at receiver than it was in the Super Bowl, which keeps Maye viable. It does not keep the Patriots’ team total high against this Seattle defense on the road in a Wednesday opener. Dimers’ sim lands nearby at 24–21 Seattle; this card is a tick lower because both fronts should win downs and kickers should matter.
4. Correlated Prop Board
A. Passing
| Player | Market | Play | Why it matches 23–17 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | Pass TDs 1.5 | Under | Patriots team total 17 does not support two passing TDs |
| Drake Maye | Pass yds ~231.5 | Lean Under / small Over only if line is 224.5 | Behind-script volume exists, but Seattle’s D caps explosives. 200–240 is the live range |
| Drake Maye | Rush yds ~25.5 | Over | Designed + scramble yards still show up when the pocket breaks |
| Sam Darnold | Pass yds ~227.5–230.5 | Under | Leading script. He does not need 240+ to win 23–17 |
| Sam Darnold | Pass TDs 1.5 | Under | One pass TD + a rush/FG package fits better than 2+ air scores |
| Sam Darnold | Completions ~19.5–21.5 | Over the lowest number (19.5) | Short, high-percentage throws while protecting a lead |
B. Rushing
| Player | Market | Play | Why it matches 23–17 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | Rush yds ~57.5 | Over if Henderson is out; no bet if Henderson is active | If Henderson sits, Stevenson is the clock/early-down back on a team that still needs 15–18 carries |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | Rush+rec ~69.5 | Over if Henderson is out | Same script plus checkdowns when Maye is under pressure |
| Jadarian Price | Rush yds (likely mid-50s) | Small Over / avoid receptions | Lead-back early downs if Seattle is ahead. Committee risk (Holani / Wilson) caps the ceiling. Fade his receptions |
| Jadarian Price | Anytime TD | Lean No / small Yes only at plus money | Goal-line work may go to Holani. Do not force a rookie TD in a 23-point team-total game |
C. Receiving
| Player | Market | Play | Why it matches 23–17 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Receptions 6.5 | Over | Best correlated skill prop on the board. JSN is Seattle’s passing game even when the score stays modest |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Rec yds | Mild Over only if the line is not juiced into shootout territory | Volume yes, 130-yard explosion no |
| A.J. Brown | Rec yds | Lean Over the lowest number / fade 2+ TDs | New WR1 gets targets. A 23–17 road loss still produces 5–7 targets |
| Romeo Doubs | Rec yds ~33 | Small Over | Secondary target if Brown is covered. Fits “Maye has to throw, not score a lot” |
| Hunter Henry / AJ Barner | Anytime TD | Barner Yes only at long plus-money; otherwise skip | TE scores are the leftover red-zone crumbs in a low-20s Seattle total |
D. Scoring / kickers
| Player | Market | Play | Why it matches 23–17 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Myers | FGs 1.5 | Over | Classic Under-game kicker spot. Seattle wins with FGs + one TD |
| Anytime TD (stars) | Stevenson / JSN | Stevenson Yes if Henderson out; JSN Yes is the cleanest Seattle scorer | Do not stack three TD “yes” bets on a 40-point game |
| 2+ TD scorers | Anyone | No | Anti-script |
E. Game / team props
| Market | Play |
|---|---|
| Game total 44.5 | Under |
| Seahawks -3.5 | Lean Seattle |
| First team to score | Seattle |
| Highest-scoring half | Second half slight lean, but this is not a must-bet |
| OT | No |
5. Best Correlated Same-Game Parlay
Core 3-leg SGP
- Under 44.5
- JSN Over 6.5 receptions
- Maye Under 1.5 pass TDs or Myers Over 1.5 FGs
If Henderson is ruled out, swap in:
- Stevenson Over rushing yards / rush+rec
instead of the kicker or Maye under on TDs
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6. Same Game Parlay – All Correlations
Score pick: Patriots 17, Seahawks 23
Correlated props
- Under 44.5
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 6.5 receptions
- Drake Maye Under 1.5 passing TDs
- Sam Darnold Under passing yards (market ~228–230)
- Jason Myers Over 1.5 field goals
- Rhamondre Stevenson Over rush / rush+rec only if Henderson is out
SGP: Under 44.5 + JSN Over 6.5 rec + Maye Under 1.5 pass TDs
Skip: shootout passing overs, Price receiving props, stacked anytime TDs, Patriots team-total Over.
Henderson’s Tuesday/Wednesday designation is the one lineup swing. If he plays meaningful snaps, take Stevenson overs off the card and keep the Under / JSN / Maye TD Under core.
