Dolphins vs Raiders — NFL Prop Bet New Model
Sun, Sept. 13, 2026 · 4:25 p.m. ET · Allegiant Stadium · FOX
Market (shown only after the score): LV -3 / 40.5
Weather: Closed roof. Indoor game. Ignore the desert heat.
Jeff Hafley and Klint Kubiak both debut. Malik Willis starts for Miami. Brock Bowers is out. Ashton Jeanty and De’Von Achane are the two offenses. This is a 16–20 game, not a 24–21 game.
Method
- Score both offenses from personnel and situation.
- Ignore the posted spread until the score is locked.
- Then compare the independent score to the board.
- Only keep props that cash if that independent score is right.
1. Dolphins vs Raiders Independent Score
Raiders 20, Dolphins 16
| Period | MIA | LV | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | 3 | 7 | Jeanty scores first |
| H1 | 6 | 10 | Willis stalls |
| Final | 16 | 20 | Home closer |
Team totals: Dolphins 16 · Raiders 20
Independent margin: LV by 4
Independent total: 36
2. Why this score, without the line
Miami’s offense is Willis plus Achane. That is a 16-point road unit in a new system, not a 21-point unit. Las Vegas’s offense is Geno plus Jeanty, without Bowers. That is a 20-point home unit, not a 24-point unit. Crosby still exists. Hafley’s first script will run Achane until it doesn’t. Dimers landed 21–19 Raiders. This card is harsher on both passing games and still lands on the home side.
3. Market comparison (after the score)
| Market implied | New Model | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA score | ~18.8 | 16 | −3 |
| LV score | ~21.8 | 20 | −2 |
| Margin | LV −3 | LV −4 | LV −3 is thin, not a fade |
| Total | 40.5 | 36 | Under |
The disagreement is the total. The board prices two mid-20s offenses. The model prices two featured backs and two limited pass games.
4. Dolphins vs Raiders Correlated Prop Board
A. Passing
| Player | Market | Play | Why it matches 20–16 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Willis | Pass yds 179.5 | Under | Dual-threat, 16-point total |
| Malik Willis | Pass TDs 0.5 / 1.5 | Over 0.5 only; fade 1.5 | One score, not two |
| Geno Smith | Pass yds ~210 | Under | No Bowers |
| Geno Smith | Pass TDs 1.5 | Under | Jeanty is the score |
B. Rushing
| Player | Market | Play | Why it matches 20–16 |
|---|---|---|---|
| De’Von Achane | Anytime TD | Yes | Miami’s only reliable TD |
| Achane | Rush yds ~68.5 | Over | Volume on a 16-point script |
| Ashton Jeanty | Anytime TD | Yes | Cleanest Raiders ground score |
| Jeanty | Rush yds ~59.5 | Over | Home closer, Bowers out |
Do not stack Willis rushing TD with Achane TD as a must-hit SGP.
C. Receiving
| Player | Market | Play | Why it matches 20–16 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Tucker / Michael Mayer | Rec yds | One small Over, not both | Geno has one score, not two 80-yard games |
| Miami WR1 | Rec yds | Under | Willis volume is thin |
| Achane rec yds | Lean Under the higher number | Checkdowns exist; don’t need the catch Over |
D. Game props
| Market | Play vs independent score |
|---|---|
| Game total 40.5 | Under |
| Raiders −3 | Thin Yes |
| Dolphins +3 | No |
| First team to score | Las Vegas |
| OT | No |
5. Dolphins vs Raiders Same Game Parlay
- Under 40.5
- Jeanty Anytime TD
- Willis Under 179.5 pass yards
Alternate 3-leg: Under 40.5 + Achane Anytime TD + Geno Under 1.5 pass TDs
Do not add: Geno Over 1.5 pass TDs, Willis Over pass yards, game Over.
6. Dolphins vs Raiders Final Card
Independent score: Dolphins 16, Raiders 20
Vs market: Cover LV −3 (thin) · Under 40.5
Primary correlated props
- Under 40.5
- De’Von Achane Anytime TD
- Ashton Jeanty Anytime TD
- Malik Willis Under passing yards
- Geno Smith Under 1.5 passing TDs
- Raiders −3
SGP: Under 40.5 + Jeanty Anytime TD + Willis Under pass yards
Skip: Geno passing-TD Over, stacking Willis rush TD with Achane TD, any Miami WR Over 70 yards.
Last Updated on 2 weeks ago by Krieg Wolfson
