Cardinals vs Chargers — NFL New Prop Bet Model
Sun, Sept. 13, 2026 · 4:25 p.m. ET · SoFi Stadium · CBS
Market (shown only after the score): LAC -9.5 / 47.5
Weather: Indoor. Ignore Inglewood weather.
Jacoby Brissett starts on the road. Isaiah Adams is out. Jeremiyah Love is questionable. Justin Herbert is at home with Omarion Hampton. This is the biggest spread on the slate for a reason.
Method
- Score both offenses from personnel and situation.
- Ignore the posted spread until the score is locked.
- Then compare the independent score to the board.
- Only keep props that cash if that independent score is right.
1. Independent Score
Chargers 28, Cardinals 17
| Period | ARI | LAC | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | 3 | 7 | Hampton scores first |
| H1 | 10 | 17 | Herbert hits two |
| Final | 17 | 28 | Home closer |
Team totals: Cardinals 17 · Chargers 28
Independent margin: LAC by 11
Independent total: 45
2. Why this score, without the line
Arizona’s offense is Brissett plus Trey McBride plus Marvin Harrison Jr. That is a 17-point road unit against this Chargers defense, not a 21-point unit. Los Angeles’s offense is Herbert plus Hampton plus Ladd McConkey. That is a 28-point home unit, not a 31-point unit. Love sitting or limited keeps Arizona from a mid-20s total. CBS landed 27–17. Farmer landed 27–20. This card splits them and still covers the number.
3. Market comparison (after the score)
| Market implied | New Model | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI score | ~19.0 | 17 | −2 |
| LAC score | ~28.5 | 28 | even |
| Margin | LAC −9.5 | LAC −11 | Chargers −9.5 |
| Total | 47.5 | 45 | Under |
The disagreement is the total, not a fade of the favorite. The board prices Arizona closer to 19. The model prices Brissett on the road at 17.
4. Cardinals vs Chargers Correlated Prop Board
A. Passing
| Player | Market | Play | Why it matches 28–17 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | Pass TDs 1.5 | Over | 28-point Chargers total |
| Justin Herbert | Pass yds ~230.5 | Lean Over | Do not need 280 |
| Jacoby Brissett | Pass yds ~223 | Under | Chargers pass D + no Love |
| Brissett | Completions 22.5 | Under | Same script |
| Brissett | Pass TDs 1.5 | Under | McBride is the one score |
B. Rushing
| Player | Market | Play | Why it matches 28–17 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Omarion Hampton | Anytime TD | Yes | Cleanest Chargers ground score |
| Hampton | Rush yds ~67–70 | Lean Under the higher number | Herbert still throws |
| Jeremiyah Love | Anytime TD | Yes only if active | Do not stack if he sits |
C. Receiving
| Player | Market | Play | Why it matches 28–17 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ladd McConkey | Rec 57.5 yds | Small Over | Herbert has two scores |
| Trey McBride | Anytime TD | Yes only at plus money | Do not stack with Harrison |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | Rec 47.5 yds | Under | Brissett volume is thin |
D. Game props
| Market | Play vs independent score |
|---|---|
| Game total 47.5 | Under |
| Chargers −9.5 | Yes |
| Cardinals +9.5 | No |
| First team to score | Los Angeles |
| OT | No |
5. Cardinals vs Chargers Same-Game Parlay
- Chargers −9.5
- Hampton Anytime TD
- Brissett Under 223.5 pass yards
Alternate 3-leg: Under 47.5 + Herbert Over 1.5 pass TDs + Hampton Anytime TD
Do not add: Brissett Over 1.5 pass TDs, Harrison 80+ yards, game Over.
6. Cardinals vs Chargers Final Card
Independent score: Cardinals 17, Chargers 28
Vs market: Cover LAC −9.5 · Under 47.5
Primary correlated props
- Chargers −9.5
- Omarion Hampton Anytime TD
- Jacoby Brissett Under 223.5 passing yards
- Justin Herbert Over 1.5 passing TDs
- Under 47.5
- Brissett Under 22.5 completions
SGP: Chargers −9.5 + Hampton Anytime TD + Brissett Under pass yards
Skip: Brissett passing-TD Over, stacking Love and Hampton TDs if Love is limited, any Cardinals WR Over 80 yards.
Last Updated on 2 weeks ago by Krieg Wolfson
