NFL Same Game Parlay Picks & Prop Bet Correlations Week 01
Week one will have several teams with new quarterbacks which is not what I want. I like consistency to make my prop bets. Because of this there will be a few games with limited betting but overall there will be a lot of bets to start the season.
If you didn’t read it here is the Bills vs Rams Same Game Parlay Picks for Week 1
A quick look at the type of information used to make the prop betting predictions is the passing yards prop bet results below. This is just an overview of one prop. Of course the model breaks down the results to individual players and how the opponent did against each prop is also part of the model.
If you are going to make some game totals bets then take a look at the Bills and the Cowboys. Both had a very strong relationship to going over the game total and over on passing yards props. But, if you like the under in the game then both were also good bets to go under the total.
Independent Betting Odds vs Correlated Betting Odds
Because of the correlation between some prop bets and spread or game totals results you will not see the traditional 2.6 win on a two team parlay. An indepth understanding of what type of odds you should be getting on same game parlay bets is available in our article:
This is a good article to increase your overall ability to make prop and SGP bets.
Quarterback Passing Yards Prop Bet Results
Below is a pic of how quarterbacks did on just their passing yards prop bets in 2021.
- All passing yards prop bet results
- Passing yard props results when the quarterbacks team covers the spread
- Passing yard prop results when a quarterbacks team does not cover the spread
- Passing yard props results when the game goes over the total
- Passing yard prop results when the game goes under the total
No correlation to spread results but a strong one to game totals results.
Want to do your own research? Use our FREE Player Prop Bet Database to get started. NFL Player Prop Betting Results
Saints vs Falcons Same Game Parlay & Prop Picks
There is a little turnover on these two teams so the confidence level in the first couple of weeks isn’t there. I always prefer the head coach and quarterback return for consistency.
Jameis Winston is returning after a limited about of games last season. When he did play he had a strong tendency for under on the QB prop bets. Overall, he went under on 23 props, over on 14 with 1 push. It did not matter if the Saints covered the spread or if the game total went over. The only prop he went over on more than under was rushing yards and that was only 3 over and 2 under.
If you are looking for someone to bet the over on in this game, then go straight to Mark Ingram’s prop lines. He has a very strong correlation to going over on his props when the game total results. When the game went over the total, Ingram went over on 17 props, under on 3 with 1 push. When the game total went under, he went over on 3 props and under on 15. This is the type of correlation you like to have on your bets. Whichever side you like on the total it is worth adding on Ingram to bump up your bet.
With a new quarterback for Atlanta and the return of Tre’Quan Smith I am going to sit out WR bets on this game.
Saints vs Falcons Free Picks
- Falcons +5.5 (-110)
- Game Total Under 42.5 (-105)
- Jameis Winston Passing Yards Under 224.5 (-114)
- Jameis Winston Passing Attempts Under 29.5 (-114)
- Marcus Mariota Passing Attempts Under 29.5 (-114)
Browns vs Panthers Same Game Parlay & Prop Picks
Another game with changes at quarterback. However, there are other players to bet on. An example is 3rd stringer D’Ernest Johnson. Not a guy you root for every week but you should have been betting on him. He only had 9 props offered last season. He went over on all 9. Not a big sample but if you have a need to bet the over then he is worth the reach.
Another RB worth looking at is Chuba Hubbard. I know Christian McCaffrey gets all the media attention but there will be odds posted on Hubbard and he is worth a look. When the game goes over the total he went over 4 times and under 16 times. When the game went under the total he went over 11 times and under 6 times.
With new QBs I am going to take a pass on the receivers in week one. I just want the chance to look at the game replays and pass distribution before I make these bets.
Browns vs Panthers Free Picks
- Panthers Money Line (-104)
- Jacoby Brissett Passing Yards Under 200.5 (-114)
- Christian McCaffrey Combined Rush & Rec Yards Over 115.5 (-114)
49ers vs Bears Same Game Parlay & Prop Picks
Justin Fields is a good player to make some correlation bets on if you like to bet the over on game totals and player props. When the Bears games went over the total he went over on 14 props, under on 3 and pushed on 2. However, when the game went under the total he went over on only 9 props and under on 30. His rushing yards props on games that went over the total also went over all 3 times while he went over only 2 times and under 5 times when the Bears games went under the total. What about when the Bears covered the point spread? Fields went over 6 times and under 15 times. When the Bears failed to cover the spread he went over 17 times and under 18 times. So, if you like the Bears to cover then he is not a player you want to bet the over on.
George Kittle had some nice correlations but not the ones that fans like to bet on. Overall, Kittle went over on only 15 props and under on 32 with 1 push. When the 49ers covered the spread he went over 7 times and under 25 times. When the game went over the total he went over 8 times and under 7 times. But, when the game went under the total he went over just 7 times and he went under on his props 25 times. If you like the 49ers to cover the spread and the game to go under the total. This combo had kittle going over 1 time and under 9 times on his receptions props.
49ers vs Bears Free Picks
- Justin Fields Passing Yards Under 201.5 (-114)
- Justin Fields Completions Under 18.5 (-114)
- Bears +7 (some have already moved to 6.5 so shop around)
Steelers vs Bengals Same Game Parlay & Prop Picks
Joe Burrow was consistent last season that when the game total went over so did his prop bets and when the game total went under his props went under. The strongest correlation was passing attempts. When the game went over the total he went over 6 times and under 2 times but, when the game went under the total he went over 3 times and under 9 times.
When the Bengals lost against the spread he was quickly abandoned to the downfield passing game. This caused Joe Mixon’s rushing yards props and his rushing attempts prop to go over just 1 time and under 5 times when the Bengals failed to cover the game spread. If you like the Steelers to cover then an under bet on Mixon can be added in.
When it comes to the Bengals TE’s and SGP bets. When the Bengals went over the game total C.J. Uzomah went over 8 times and uner 1 time on his receptions props. He has moved on but this shows the type of targets that Bengals TE’s are capable of getting? Not taking action on them in this game but it is something to watch.
You can use our player prop database to see last years TE’s and this years to make a comparison.
Tee Higgins was not the biggest name on the Bengals but he was money when the game total went over. He went over on 17 props and under on just 7 when the Bengals games went over the total. Another player to look at is Tyler Boyd. When the Bengals covered the spread he went over on his props 11 times and under 25 times. However, when the Bengals failed to cover the spread he went over on 14 props and under just 3 times. This is guy that replaces Joe Mixon touches when the Bengals are behind.
Steelers vs Bengals Free Picks
- Bengals -6.5
- Game Total Over 44.5
- Joe Burrow Passing Yards Over 260.5 (-114)
- Joe Burrow Completions Over 22.5 (-114)
- Mitchell Trubisky Passing Yards Under 227.5 (-114)
- Mitchell Trubisky Rushing Yards Under 18.5 (-114)
- Tee Higgins Anytime Touchdown Scorer +155
- Tee Higgins Receiving Yards Over 70.5 (-114)
Eagles vs Lions Same Game Parlay & Prop Picks
I know Jared Goff gets a lot of flack for being a game manager but when it comes to props he has some bettable tendincies. When the Lions games go over the total he went over on ; completions, pass attempts and, interception props a total of 12 times and under 1 time. Jalen Hurts has a good correlation to go under on his passing yards and the Eagles covering the spread. This is a normal correlation for most quarterbacks so the odds on it will not be that great.
Kenneth Gainwell went over on 6 props and under on 11. Doesn’t seem like much but, when the Eagles covered the point spread he went over 0 times and under 11. When the Eagles lost against the spread he went over 6 times and under 0. Decide if you think the Eagles will cover then add him on.
D’Andre Swift had a similar betting split. When the Lions cover the spread he went over on 25 props and under on 10. When the Lions failed to cover the spread he went over on 5 and under on 12. Use our prop bet DB to break it down further but you can see with these two RB’s you can increase your return by adding the right props onto your game bet.
At TE T.J. Hockenson is a good player to add on if you like the over in the game. When Lions game totals went over he went over on 10 props and under on just 2.
Eagles vs Lions Free Picks
- Lions +4.5 (-114)
- D’Andre Swift Rushing Yards Over 49.5 (-114)
- D’Andre Swift Receiving Yards Over 32.5 (-114)
Colts vs Texans Same Game Parlay & Prop Picks
Another game with changes at quarterback. If fact there are several changes on the Colts roster. I am not going to take any action on this game this week. However, if you want to reasearch your prop bets. Use our DB and choose T22 for teams. This will show the players on the roster this season with last years prop betting results.
Colts vs Texans Free Picks
No action on this game.
Patriots vs Dolphins Same Game Parlay & Prop Picks
Tua was an under bet on almost everything last season but the Dolphins have added Tyreek Hill and he has the ability to turn a 10 pass into a 60 yard touchdown on his own. Staying away from Dolphin QB bets this week.
On the Patriots side Mac Jones was consistent. If you like betting the over on interceptions props then you want the Patriots to lose against the spread. When the lost ATS last season he went over 6 times and under just 1 time.
At TE Hunter Henry has a negative correlation with covering the spread. When the Pats covered the point spread he went over 5 times and under 15 times but, when the Pats lose against the spread he went 13 times and under 8 times. So, if you like the Dolphins to cover then adding him on to go over on his longest reception prop would be the one to take.
WR Kendrick Bourne as a prop bet dream for covering overs last season. It didn’t matter if the Pats covered the spread or if the game went over. He went over on 28 props and under on just 10. For the Dophins there has been a massive upgrade at wide receive but I will be waiting to next week to make any bets on the Fins WRs. I want to see if Tua can just get them the ball in a good position for the receivers to make a move after they catch it.
Patriots vs Dolphins Free Picks
- Dolphins -3.5 (-105)
- Mac Jones Interceptions Yes (-114)
- Jaylen Waddle Receiving Yards Over 59.5 (-114)
Ravens vs Jets Same Game Parlay & Prop Picks
Zach Wilson is out but Lamar is still in action, Lamar Jackson has some nice betting splits on game ATS results. When the Ravens cover the spread he went over 12 times and under 22 times but when the Ravens lose against the spread he went over 28 times and under 17 times. If you like the Jets to cover then take a look at taking Lamar over on his Passing yards prop.
Not taking any action on the running backs. Too many changes to get an early read on. At WR I hope you like betting the under. A player to look at is Corey Davis. When the Jets lost against the spread he went over on his receiving yards props 1 time and under 5 times.
I know most bettors want to bet the over on player props. Well, here is a guy to bet on. Mark Andrews went over on 31 props and under on 14 last season. Lamar likes to use him a lot and it doesn’t matter if the Ravens cover the spread or not. When the Ravens do cover the spread he went over on receiving yards props all 5 times. Nice way to get an odds boost if you like the Ravens to cover against the Jets.
Ravens vs Jets Free Picks
- Ravens -6.5 (-115)
- Lamar Jackson Passing Yards Under 228.5 (-114)
- Lamar Jackson Rushing Yards Over 59.5 (-114)
- Mark Andrews Receiving Yards Over 67.5 (-114)
Jaguars vs Commanders Same Game Parlay & Prop Picks
Carson Wentz is on another team and I want to wait a week to see how Washington alters the pass distribution. One guy on Washington that I do feel comfortable with is Antonio Gibson. Last season he was the key to covering the point spread. When Washington won ATS he went over 20 times and under 7. However, when Washington lost ATS he went over 8 times and under 23. Add him on your same game parlay depending on if you like them to cover or not.
At TE for Jacksonville Sam Darnold is out and Evan Engram was more of a blocking tight last season for Giants last season. No action on TE in this game.
At WR the guy to watch is Jaguars. He was underrated by the media and the fans last season in Arizona. He went over on 31 of 45 player props last season and there is no reason he can’t be the same underrated player in Jacksonville. Everyone is down on the Jags but we aren’t talking about wins here. We want players who perform betting than the betting public expects. It didn’t matter if the Cardinals covered against the spread or if the game went over the total. Kirk was on over bet in all four outcomes.
Jaguars vs Commanders Free Picks
- Jags Money Line +120
- Antonio Gibson Rushing Yards Under 58.5 (-114)
- Travis Entienne Rushing Yards Over 46.5 (-114)
Giants vs Titans Same Game Parlay & Prop Picks
Daniel Jones and Ryan Tannehill? Whatever you do, do not bet the over on touchdown passes with these guys. An under bet on TD passes would have covered 22 times and lost just 6. Might take a look at betting both under as the running backs should be getting the redzone touches.
At RB Derrick Henry was a good over bet on rushing attempts. He went over 6 times and under 2 times last season. No reason to think this will change. Betting the under on Saquon Barkley rushing yards was profitable as it covered 7 out of the 10 times he was on the board last season.
At TE it is a complete roster change so no action on that position for week 1. At WR Danny dimes and Kenny Golladay teamed up to cash a lot of under player prop bets last year. Golladay went over on 8 props and under on 26 last season. Bet the under on longest reception. Last year it hit 10 of the 12 times it was offered and it doesn’t matter if the Giants covered the spread or not.
Giants vs Titans Free Picks
- Titans -5.5 (-110)
- Ryan Tannehill Passing Touchdowns Under 1.5 (-174)
- Daniel Jones Passing Touchdowns Under 1.5 (-180)
- Derrick Henry Rushing Yards Over 98.5 (-108)
Chiefs vs Cardinals Same Game Parlay & Prop Picks
Like to bet the over on Patrick Mahomes props? Then bet the over on interceptions. He went over 12 times and under 8 last season. Kyler Murray also went over on his int props, 8 over and 6 under last year. The real correlation for Kyler is on spread losses. He went over on int props 5 times and under just 1 time when the Cardinals lost ATS. How about a bet on Patrick Mahomes and the game going over the total? Yes, his rushing yards prop went over 9 times and under just 2 times when the game total went over.
At RB there is a lot of turnover for the Chiefs so I am going to limit myself to betting on the Cardinal backs this week. James Conner went over on rushing & receiving yards props 4 times and under just 1 time when the game total went over. Something to throw on with the Patrick Mahomes rushing prop if you like the game to go over the total.
At WR A.J. Green also goes well with a game going over the total. He went over on 11 props and under just 2 times when a game went over last season. Again, this is the way to build out correlation bets. If you like the over in this game there are several player to bet on.
Just take a look at our prop betting database to add a few more.
Chiefs vs Cardinals Free Picks
- Cardinals +5.5 (-105)
- Kyler Murray Touchdown Passes Over 1.5 (102)
- James Conner Rushing Yards Over 52.5 (-114)
- Travis Kelce Receiving Yards Under 76.5 (-114)
Raiders vs Chargers Same Game Parlay & Prop Picks
Want an over prop bet in this game? Derek Carr and Justin Herbert combined to go over 23 times and under just 11 times on interception props. If you like the Chargers to cover the spread, Carr went over on interception props all 8 times that the Raiders lost against the spread. Sounds bad? Herbert went over on all 9 times the Chargers lost against the spread. Pick a side and take the opposing QB to go over on his int prop.
At RB, Austin Ekeler has been good at going over on his combined rushing and receiving yards props. He went over 11 times and under 5 times last year.
At wide receiver, Mike Williams is a guy you need to look at. He was a consistent over on props when the Chargers covered or the game went over the total. The best prop for either of these outcomes is the longest receiving yards prop. So, if you like the Chargers to cover or the game to go over then add on Williams to go over on his longest receiving yards prop bet.
Raiders vs Chargers Free Picks
- Chargers -3.5 (-104)
- Derek Carr Interceptions Yes (-114)
- Austin Ekeler Rushing Yards Over 61.5 (-114)
- Austin Ekeler Combined Rush & Rec Yards Over 97.5 (-114)
Packers vs Vikings Same Game Parlay & Prop Picks
Are you ready to bet the under? Aaron Rodgers interception props have been hitting the under for years. Last season was no different as Rodgers went over 3 times and under 13 times. Want a nice correlation? When the game total went over Rodgers went under on all 7 of his int props. What about Kirk Cousins? When the Vikings covered the point spread he went over on touchdown passing props 6 times and pushed 2 times. How about Vikings games that went over the total? On passing touchdown he went over 6 times under 1 with 2 that pushed. Like the Vikings and the over then add Cousins on your same game parlay prop to go over on touchdown passes.
At running back for the Packers Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon had an interesting correlation. When the Packers games went over the total; Jones went over on 15 props and under on 6 while Dillon went over on just 6 and under on 12. To give you an idea of how dependent the Vikings are on Dalvin Cook. When the Vikings covered the spread he went over on 6 rushing yards props and under on just 1. However, when the Vikings lost against the spread Cook on all his props went over just 6 times and under 21 times. Stop Cook and you stop the Vikings. So, if you like the Packers to cover the spread then betting under on rushing yards or his combined rushing and receiving yards to the way to go.
I am not taking any Packers tight end or wide receiver props into I have a better picture of the Packers pass distribution this season. I still like Aaron Jones and Dillon in the passing game but I want to watch this game and get a better understanding of the offense.
A lot of talk about how good Justin Jefferson is. However, it doesn’t matter how good he is. What matters is how good he is against the betting line on his props. Last season he was barely above .500 going over 25 times and under 22 times. It might be worse this year as all of the hype will let the books artificially raise the betting line even higher. A player that gets little recognition but should be on your same game parlay if you like the game to go under the total is K.J. Osborn. last year when Vikings games went under the point total he went over on just 1 prop and under on 10.
Packers vs Vikings Free Picks
- Packers -1.5 (-110)
- Game Total Under 47.5 (-115)
- Delvin Cook Rushing Yards Under 71.5 (-114)
Buccaneers vs Cowboys Same Game Parlay & Prop Picks
Do you like to bet the over on your player props? Last season when these two teams played in week 1 Dak Prescott went over on all 6 of his player props (completions, interceptions, passing yards, passing attempts, rushing yards, touchdown passes). Who else on the Cowboys had a good day on the over? Tony Pollard went over on 3 of 4 props. Think every Cowboy player hit the over in last years shootout? Ezeikiel Elliot went under on all 5 of his player props. CeeDee Lamb also went over on all 3 player props. It was a great game to bet the over on as long as you faded the aging Elliot.
What about the Bucs? Tom Brady went over on 5 of 6 player props. Which one did he go under on? Rushing yards. You had to pick the right running back for your bets. Leonard Fournette went over on 4 out of 5 props while Ronald Jones went under on all 4 props.
Buccaneers vs Cowboys Free Picks
- Game Total Over 50.5 (-110)
- Tom Brady Passing Yards Over 274.5 (-114)
- Dak Prescott Passing Yards Over 268.5 (-114)
- Ezekiel Elliott Rushing Yards Under 46.5 (-114)
- CeeDee Lamb Receiving Yards Over 72.5 (-114)
NFL Player Prop Betting Database
If you want to make money this year then spend a little time doing research. Find out which is the player prop to go along with how you think the game will turn out.
Take a look at Tom Brady passing yards prop bet results.
Look at how his prop results differ based on game total finishes going over the total or under the total.
Read more from XSportsbook.com
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