Article from XSportsbook

NFL Same Game Parlay & Prop Bet Correlations & Strategy

XSportsbook has collected 13,487 player prop betting results from just the 2021 to 2022 season and analyzed the NFL same game parlay outcomes. As you will see if you are not betting the under you are most likely losing money. However, that was not enough to take full advantage of the player prop betting information so I also ran the data against the spread betting results for every game of the 2021 season.

With this information I was able to correlate the likelyhood of a prop bet going over or under based on if the game either went over or under the AND if a team covered the point spread.

Looking for Player Prop Correlation Results?

See the 2022 season here

FAQ for Same Game Parlay & Player Prop Bet Correlations

• Is a quarterback more likely to go over or under on a passing yards prop when his team covers the spread?
• How much money would I have won or lost by just betting the over on every player prop?
• What is the best player prop to bet the over on when a team covers the spread?
• What is the best player prop to bet the over on when a team loses against the spread?
• What is the correlation between different prop bets and a game spread?

These and many more questions will be answered, and you will be able to see the math behind the answers. I would be willing to bet that most people will not like seeing the results but those of you who care more about winning money than the entertainment of gambling will be able to use these charts to change how you are betting.

Example of NFL Player Proposition Bet & Same Game Parlay

Let’s start with a real line from week one of the 2021 season in a game between the Dallas Cowboys and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Dak Prescott: Prop Bet Completions line 25.5, odds over (-135) & odds under (+105)

One thing that stands out is that the over and under are not at (-110) like you would normally see on game betting lines. This is common on player props because most gamblers want to bet the over so the over gets more action and that can cause the odds to be reduced or the prop bet line total to be moved.

What were the real results?

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