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NFL Prop Bet Picks & Strategy

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NFL Same Game Parlay Strategies

XSportsbook has collected 13,487 player prop betting results from just the 2021 season and analyzed them for how likely each prop bet is to go over or go under the betting line. As you will see if you are not betting the under you are most likely losing money. However, that was not enough to take full advantage of the player prop betting information so I also ran the data against the spread betting results for every game of the 2021 season. There were 283 including the Super Bowl with 2 games finishing in a push against the spread.

NFL Prop Bet Picks & Correlations

  • Is a quarterback more likely to go over or under on a passing yards prop when his team covers the spread?
  • How much money would I have won or lost by just betting the over on every player prop?
  • What is the best player prop to bet the over on when a team covers the spread?
  • What is the best player prop to bet the over on when a team loses against the spread?
  • What is the correlation between different prop bets and a game spread?

These and many more questions will be answered, and you will be able to see the math behind the answers. I would be willing to bet that most people will not like seeing the results but those of you who care more about winning money than the entertainment of gambling will be able to use these charts to change how you are betting.

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