NFL Thanksgiving Day Game Betting Predictions 2021

Chicago at Detroit (+3)

Per usual, the Lions host the first game at 12:30 p.m. ET and it’s on Fox. Could Detroit still be winless at this point? Very possible. The Bears beat the Lions 24-14 in Chicago in Week 4. Chicago rookie QB Justin Fields was 11-for-17 for 209 yard and a pick. David Montgomery rushed for 106 yards and two TDs. Jared Goff had a good day for the Lions in throwing for 299 yards and two scores.

This will be the third time in four years the two teams will face off against each other on Thanksgiving. In 2018, Chase Daniel led the Bears over the Lions in a 23-16 victory. The following year, Mitchell Trubisky defeated a Matthew Stafford-less Lions team, 24-20. None of those quarterbacks are still around.

Chicago could have projected left tackle and second-round rookie Teven Jenkins back by this game. Jenkins has been sidelined since undergoing back surgery in mid-August but has been working out with the team. Chicago traded up to select Jenkins in the second round back in April.

These days have faced off 18 times on Thanksgiving overall and Chicago leads 10-8. Last year, Detroit lost 41-25 at home to Houston on the holiday. Texans QB Deshaun Watson had a pair of go-ahead touchdown passes in the first half and threw for two more scores in the fourth quarter. Detroit scored first before collapsing with turnovers on two straight snaps and three consecutive possessions in the first half.

Last week Andy Dalton finally got another chance and did move the Bears offense and gave Chicago a chance to win the game. This bet is based on Dalton getting the start against a Lions team that just doesn’t have the talent to win.

Bet: Andy Dalton starts take the Bears if Fields starts take the Lions

Bet: Bears -3

Score Prediction: Bears 23 – Lions 16

Las Vegas at Dallas (-7.5)

Again per usual, the Cowboys host the mid-afternoon game at 4:25 p.m. ET and on CBS. The Cowboys became the second regular Thanksgiving Day participant beginning in 1966. All but two Thanksgivings have included games featuring both the Lions and Cowboys since Dallas’ inclusion.

The Raiders will be making the franchise’s first Thanksgiving appearance since 2013. It will be their first since moving to Las Vegas. The team has compiled a 3-4 record during seven previous Thanksgiving Day appearances.  The Raiders visited Dallas on Thanksgiving in 2009 and 2013. They lost both of those matchups and also lost their last meeting with the Cowboys at home in 2017.

The Raiders of course let coach Jon Gruden go earlier this season and there are rumors they could be looking at Dallas offensive coordinator Kellen Moore to be his long-term replacement after the year. For now, special-teams coordinator Rich Bisaccia – a former Dallas Cowboys assistant – is serving as interim head coach.

Last year, Dallas lost 41-16 at home to Washington on Thanksgiving. Antonio Gibson ran for three touchdowns. Andy Dalton was the Cowboys’ QB then but is now in Chicago.

Prediction:

Cowboys have a weaknesses on defense but Derek Carr will not be able to take advantage of them. When the Cowboys have the ball they will be able to move against the Raiders and are in good position to cover the team total of 30 points.

Bet: Cowboys -7.5 and over 30 on the team total.

Score Prediction: Cowboys 38 – Raiders 20

Buffalo at New Orleans (+5.5)

The annual Thursday night game kicks off at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC and this rotates hosts, although the Saints are also playing on Thanksgiving for the third time in the last four years. They beat the Falcons at home in 2018 and beat them in Atlanta the next year.

Buffalo garnered one of the highest ratings in Thanksgiving history in 2019 when they routed the Dallas Cowboys. It was the best regular-season rating of any game in three years (at the time) and the most-watched Thanksgiving game on CBS in 27 years.

This game lost a bit of luster when the Saints lost starting quarterback Jameis Winston to a season-ending injury recently.  Now they use a combination of former seventh-round pick Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill.

Bet: No quarterback is a bad option to go against one of the better defenses in the league. The Bills do have trouble stopping the run and if Kamara can play that would keep the game close enough for me not to make a bet. If Kamara does not play then the Bills get to do to the Saints what the Colts just did to them.

Bet: Bills -5.5

Score Prediction: Bills 34 – Saints 17