Week 4 NFL Prop Bet Picks 2023 Same Game Parlay Betting Correlations
NFL Week 4 Prop Bet Picks 2023
Week 4 NFL Prop Bet Picks 2023 Betting Breakdown
- 5 games
- 13 straight bets
- 5 same game parlay bets
- 9 player prop bets
- 3 game totals bets
- 1 spread bet
Week 4 NFL Prop Bet Picks 2023 will be based on the best sportsbook odds I can find. As always, shop around for the best odds. I have 3 US sportsbooks and 3 offshore sportsbooks. The odds below are the first out so look for better odds.
Week 4 NFL Prop Bet Picks 2023
Thursday Night Football Correlation Bets
Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers
Thursday Night Football has the Detroit Lions playing the Green Bay Packers. There is a good correlation player prop bet and game total bet for the Lions. Jared Goff and his passing yards prop with the game total.
When Lions games have gone over the game total, he has gone over on his player prop 10 times and under 4 times. However, when the Lions game go under the game total, he has gone over 5 times and under 11 times. This has a good correlation with the Green Bay defense. Over the 2022 and 2021 seasons. When Packers games have gone over the game total, opposing quarterbacks went over on their passing yards props 9 and under 5 times. When Packers games go under the game total, opposing quarterbacks went over on their passing yards props 5 times and under 12 times. The key to this is do you like the game to go over or under the game total. I have the game going under, so I am betting on Jared Goff to go under on his passing yards prop AND the game total to go under. If, however, you like the game total to go over then you should also add Jared Goff to go over on his passing yards prop to take advantage of the player prop and game total correlation.
Jared Goff
- Team : Detroit Lions
- Position : Quarterback
- Prop Bet : Passing yards
- Betting Line : 257.5 0(-104) u(-120)
Straight Bets :
- Game Total : UNDER 46.0 (-110) Loser
- Jared Goff Passing Yards Prop : UNDER 257.5 (-120) Winner
Correlation Bet :
- Game Total UNDER
- Jared Goff Passing Yards Prop UNDER
Result: Loser and not even close
Below are the Jared Goff prop bet correlations for the 2022 season only.
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Sunday NFL Correlations Bets
Atlanta Falcons vs Jacksonville Jaguars
To be played in the United Kingdom with a 6:30am Las Vegas Time kickoff.
Travis Etienne has been a solid bet on his combined rushing and receiving yards prop. In 2022 he went over 9 times and under just 5 times. This matches up well with the Atlanta Falcons weakness against opposing running backs on this prop. For the 2022 and 2021 regular seasons combined the Falcons opposing running backs went over on the combined yardage prop 24 times and under just 13 times.
Want to make it a correlation bet? Look at the results for game totals and the correlation with the over or under on this bet. When the game total went under he went over 6 times and under just 1 time.
Travis Eteinne
- Team: Jacksonville Jaguars
- Position: Running Back
- Prop Bet: Combined Rushing & Receiving Yards
- Betting Line: 90.5 0(-115)
Straight Bets :
- Travis Etienne OVER on Combined Rushing and Receiving Yards 90.5 (-115) Loser
- Game Total UNDER 43.5 (-110) Winner
Correlation Bet :
- Game Total UNDER
- Travis Eteinne Combined Yards OVER
Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers
The game between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Los Angeles Chargers is a good example of using correlations to make a same game parlay. Some player prop bet correlations work with two players. Josh Jacobs of the Raiders and Gerald Everett of the Chargers both have a strong correlation to their team covering the point spread.
For Jacobs he does better on covering the over on his rushing yards prop when the Raiders cover the point spread. This should be expected that a team winning the game would run the ball more. The correlation between the spread and the player prop for Gerald Everett is in line with what you would expect with a team losing. He is more likely to go under on his receiving yards prop when the Chargers cover the spread and more likely to go over when the Chargers fail to cover the spread. A team behind will pass the ball more and the tight end will get more targets when down late in the game. Use both correlations to build out a same game parlay. Bet the Raiders to cover with Josh Jacobs going over on his rushing yards prop and Gerald Everette to go over on his receiving yards prop or, bet on the Chargers to cover the point spread and Josh Jacobs to go under on his rushing yards prop with Gerald Everett going under on his receiving yards prop. I like the Chargers to cover the spread in the game but if you like the Raiders to cover then you have a 3-leg same game parlay correlation ready to go.
Josh Jacobs
- Team: Las Vegas Raiders
- Position: Running Back
- Prop Bet: Rushing Yards
- Betting Line: 67.5 u(-114) Winner
Gerald Everett
- Team: Los Angeles Chargers
- Position: Tight End
- Prop Bet: Receiving Yards
- Betting Line: 29.5 u(-114) Winner
Straight Bets :
- Spread Winner : Chargers -6 Winner
- Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards Prop : UNDER Winner
- Gerald Everett Receiving Yards Prop : UNDER Winner
Correlation Bet :
- Chargers Spread
- Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards UNDER
- Gerald Everett Receiving Yards UNDER
Dallas Cowboys vs New England Patriots
The Dallas Cowboys looked pathetic against the Arizona Cardinals last week and you might expect them to come out strong this week. However, they will be facing one of the better pass defenses in the league and this plays into a good correlation bet for the Cowboys. Over the 2022 & 2021 regular seasons, when Dallas Cowboys games go under the total, Dak has gone over on his passing yards prop just 1 time and under 10 times. Now add on CeeDee Lamb in the same situation. When the game total has gone under, he went over on his receiving yards prop 5 times and under 10 times. These two players are the key to the game total bets on the Cowboys.
How have the New England Patriots done on this prop? For the 2022 and 2021 seasons, the Patriots opposing quarterbacks have gone over on their passing yards props 11 times and under 21 times. Drill down on the data one more level. When Patriot games go under the total. Opposing quarterbacks have gone over on their passing yards prop 3 times and under 14 times.
Dak Prescott
- Team: Dallas Cowboys
- Position: Quarterback
- Prop Bet: Passing Yards
- Betting Line: 233.5 u(-114)
CeeDee Lamb
- Team: Dallas Cowboys
- Position: Wide Receiver
- Prop Bet: Receiving Yards
- Betting Line: 69.5 u(-114)
Straight Bets :
- Game Total : UNDER 42.5 (-110) Winner
- Dak Prescott Passing Yards Prop : UNDER 233.5 Loser
- CeeDee Lamb Receiving Yards Prop : UNDER 69.5 Winner
Correlation Bet :
- Game Total UNDER
- Dak Prescott UNDER
- CeeDee Lamb UNDER
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Monday NFL Correlations Bets
New York Giants vs Seattle Seahawks
Monday Night Football has the disappointing New York Giants facing the inconsistent Seattle Seahawks. Not exactly a must-see game but you don’t have to watch it to make money betting on it. I will be out somewhere in Vegas eating dinner and checking the score on my phone. So be it, as long as I cash. With that lets look at some key numbers.
I know Daniel Jones is considered to be a lousy passing quarterback. To that I say good. I hope that narrative is all over New York media this week. Because, if you look at the numbers, for the 2022 and 2021 regular seasons combined. Daniel Jones went over on his completions prop 17 times and under 9 times. He isn’t a good passer, but the line has been skewed down by the negative media. Part way there but It isn’t a same game parlay with just one bet.
Where else to target these teams? The tight end position. The Seahawks are one of the worst teams in the NFL at letting the opposing tight end go over on his player props. Who else allows the tight end to go over on receiving yards props? The New York Giants. This game should feature both tight ends getting plenty of targets. For the 2022 & 2021 seasons. Noah Fant went over on his receptions prop 16 times and under 10 times. The Giants allowed opposing tight ends to go over at a 57.5% rate. The Seahawks allowed opposing tight ends to go over on their receptions prop at an NFL high 71.4% rate. Darren Waller was a disappointment with the Las Vegas Raiders but, he was also teamed with Derrick Carr who liked to throw to the wide receivers and often ignored an open tight end. This is a good matchup for Darren Waller, and I expect with to get 8 targets for 5+ receptions.
Update: Noah Fant might not play so odds are not posted.
Daniel Jones
- Team: New York Giants
- Position: Quarterback
- Prop Bet: Completions
- Betting Line: 20.5 o(-114)
Darren Waller
- Team: New York Giants
- Position: Tight End
- Prop Bet: Receptions
- Betting Line: 4.5 o(-114)
Noah Fant
- Team: Seattle Seahawks
- Position: Tight End
- Prop Bet: Receptions
- Betting Line: 0.5 o(-114) No Bet Questionable
Straight Bets :
- Daniel Jones Completions Prop OVER Winner
- Noah Fant Receptions Prop N/A
- Darren Waller Receptions Prop OVER Loser
Correlation Bet :
- Daniel Jones Completions Prop OVER
- Noah Fant Receptions Prop N/A
- Darren Waller Receptions Prop OVER
NFL Prop Bet Predictions 2023 will based on our exclusive betting model with over 75,000 player prop bet results since the 2017 season.There are many ways to bet on players in the NFL. One thing most prop bettors do not look at is how have other players done against an opposing defense on the same prop. It is a vital part of our NFL player prop prediction model.
As always, shop around for the best odds. I have 3 US sportsbooks and 3 offshore sportsbooks. The odds below are the first out so look for better odds.
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NFL Player Prop Bet Model
NFL player prop bet picks are based on our exclusive betting model with over 75,000 player prop bet results since the 2015 season.There are many ways to bet on players in the NFL. Bet on a quarterbacks passing yards or interceptions. A running backs rushing or receiving yards. Not only are there more props to bet on but there are also more players to bet on. In 2015 when we started collecting player prop bet results. There were just over 6,000 prop bet results for the regular season. Compare that with over 15,000 player prop bet results for the 2022 season. In 2015 only the primary running back had props on him. Many tight ends didn’t have props to wager on. This all changed as fantasy football took off and people migrated over to making real money NFL bets on players.
NFL Player Prop Bet Strategy – Bet the Under
Somethings have not changed over the years. There is still a built in advantage for betting the under on NFL player props. Most fans want to bet the over and the sportsbook managers will take advantage of this by shading the lines a little bit. If Patrick Mahomes should have a passing yards prop of 285.5 yards. The books will put out a 290.5. They know the fans will still want to bet the over. If you are in it for entertainment then make the bet. However, if you are in it for the money then take advantage of the 3% built in edge for under bets.
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