Week 3 NFL Prop Bet Picks 2023 Best Player Prop Predictions
NFL Week 3 Prop Bet Picks 2023
Week 3 NFL Prop Bet Picks 2023 will be based on the best sportsbook odds I can find. As always, shop around for the best odds. I have 3 US sportsbooks and 3 offshore sportsbooks. The odds below are the first out so look for better odds.
Week 3 NFL Prop Bet Picks 2023 Thursday Night Football
- Team : New York Giants
- Position : Quarterback
- Prop Bet : Passing yards
- BetOnline Betting Line : 212.5 0(-114) u(-114)
Daniel Jones has been a pretty good under bet on his passing bets. What I really like is the correlation between two bets on the game against the San Francisco 49ers.
Over the last two seasons (2022 & 2021) Daniel Jones has gone over on his passing yards props 10 times and under 16 times. Seems like a strong lean to the under. However, that is not enough for a good same game parlay bet. When the game total has gone over he went over on his passing yards props 6 times and under 4 times. So, if you like the game total to go over then the same game parlay bet would be to add the game total going over also.
However, I like the game total to go under 43.5 points. When the game total has gone under, Daniel Jones went over on his passing yards prop 4 times and under 11 times. That works out to just 26.7% of the time.
Daniel Jones Passing Yards UNDER 212.5 (-114)
Giants vs 49ers Game Total UNDER 43.5 (-110)
Same Game Parlay Bet :
Jones UNDER & Game Total UNDER + 186
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Sunday NFL Player Prop Bet Picks
- Team: Dallas Cowboys
- Position: Quarterback
- Prop Bet: Passing Yards
- Betting Line: 233.5 0(-114)
Dak has been great at going over on his passing yards props when the game total also goes over. In 2022 & 2021 combined, he went over 11 times and under just 3 times when the game total went over.
Passing Yards OVER 233.5 (-114)
Game Total OVER 43.0 (-110)
- Team: Miami Dolphins
- Position: Quarterback
- Prop Bet: Passing Yards
- Betting Line: 269.5 o(-114)
Tua has been money when he goes over on his passing yards prop. That is the key, if you like him to go over then add these two other bets on. When Tua has gone over on his passing yards prop the game total has gone over 8 times and under just 1 time. And, the Dolphins have covered the point spread 10 times and failed to cover 3 times. Make this bet if you like Tua to go over on his passing yards prop and want a boost in the payout.
Passing Yards OVER 269.5 (-114)
Dolphins Game Spread -6.5
Game Total OVER 48.0
Travis Etienne Jr.
- Team: Jacksonville Jaguars
- Position: Running Back
- Prop Bet: Rushing Yards
- Betting Line: 67.5 o(-114)
The Jaguars are playing a really bad Houston Texans team and this is a chance for them to start looking like a playoff team again. A key to the Jaguars game totals results has been Travis Etienne Jr. in the rushing game. Over the last two seasons, when the Jaguars games have gone under the total. Etienne has gone over on his rushing yards prop 8 times and under just 1 time. When the game total went over, Travis Etienne Jr. went over on his rushing yards prop 3 times and under 2 times. With the lead, the Jags will just hand it off and try and run out the clock.
Rushing Yards OVER 67.5 (-114)
Game Total UNDER 44.5 (-110)
- Team: Chicago Bears
- Position: Tight End
- Prop Bet: Receiving Yards
- Betting Line: 29.5 o(-114)
Cole Kmet has been a good boost to betting on the Bears game totals result. When the Bears games go over on the game total, Kmet has gone over on his passing yards prop 10 times and under 5 times. However, when the game total goes under, Kmet has gone over on his passing yards prop 4 times and hit the under 10 times. Strong correlation and I like the total to go over 48.0 points so I am on Kmet to go over on his receiving yards prop.
Receiving Yards OVER 29.5 (-114)
Game Total OVER 48.0 (-110)
NFL Prop Bet Predictions 2023 will based on our exclusive betting model with over 75,000 player prop bet results since the 2017 season.There are many ways to bet on players in the NFL. One thing most prop bettors do not look at is how have other players done against an opposing defense on the same prop. It is a vital part of our NFL player prop prediction model.
As always, shop around for the best odds. I have 3 US sportsbooks and 3 offshore sportsbooks. The odds below are the first out so look for better odds.
NFL Player Prop Bet Model
NFL player prop bet picks are based on our exclusive betting model with over 75,000 player prop bet results since the 2015 season.There are many ways to bet on players in the NFL. Bet on a quarterbacks passing yards or interceptions. A running backs rushing or receiving yards. Not only are there more props to bet on but there are also more players to bet on. In 2015 when we started collecting player prop bet results. There were just over 6,000 prop bet results for the regular season. Compare that with over 15,000 player prop bet results for the 2022 season. In 2015 only the primary running back had props on him. Many tight ends didn’t have props to wager on. This all changed as fantasy football took off and people migrated over to making real money NFL bets on players.
NFL Player Prop Bet Strategy – Bet the Under
Somethings have not changed over the years. There is still a built in advantage for betting the under on NFL player props. Most fans want to bet the over and the sportsbook managers will take advantage of this by shading the lines a little bit. If Patrick Mahomes should have a passing yards prop of 285.5 yards. The books will put out a 290.5. They know the fans will still want to bet the over. If you are in it for entertainment then make the bet. However, if you are in it for the money then take advantage of the 3% built in edge for under bets.
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