Week 2 NFL Prop Bet Picks 2023 Best Player Prop Predictions
Week 2 NFL Prop Bet Picks 2023
Week 2 NFL Prop Bet Picks 2023 will be based on the best sportsbook odds I can find. As always, shop around for the best odds. I have 3 US sportsbooks and 3 offshore sportsbooks. The odds below are the first out so look for better odds.
Sunday NFL Player Prop Bet Picks
Zach Wilson
- Team: New York Jets
- Position: Quarterback
- Prop Bet: Completions
- Betting Line: 17.5 u(+100)
Zach Wilson will start for the injured Aaron Rodgers. There was a reason that the Jets went after Rodgers even though they had Wilson on the roster. He is too hesitant to be consistent. Over the last 2 regular seasons when the completions prop has been offered. Zach Wilson has gone over 5 times and under 16 times. Wilson will be going against one of the top passing defenses in the NFL. Look for the Jets to try and run the ball a lot of Wilson might end up on the IL with Rodgers.
Bet: Completions UNDER 17.5 (+100)
Winner
Josh Reynolds
- Team: Detroit Lions
- Position: Wide Receiver
- Prop Bet: Receiving Yards
- Betting Line: 38.5 o(-113)
Jared Goff has gotten a lot of attention for the Lions turn around over the last couple of seasons. One of the benefituries of the Lions passing game has been Josh Reynolds. Not a big name player but he keeps covering the over on his receiving yards at a 66.6% clip. The Seahawks defense isn’t what it used to be as the Rams showed in week 1. Looks for Reynolds to have another 50+ receiving yard game and hammer him before the rest of the prop bettors catch on.
Bet: Receiving Yards OVER 38.5 (-113)
Winner
Kendrick Bourne
- Team: New England Patriots
- Position: Wide Reiver
- Prop Bet: Receiving Yards
- Betting Line: 38.5 o(-124)
The Patriots are not a pass first offense but last week they showed that they will pass when the are behind. Expect the Miami Dolphins to be able to put up points and force the Patriots to throw more than usual. Kendrick Bourne is in a good situation to take advantage of the Pats need to pass. Over the last 2 seasons Bourne has gone over on his passing yards props 11 times and under just 5 times. He has been little noticed but productive. The 38.5 yards should fall as our model has him going over 49 yards.
Bet: Receiving Yards OVER 38.5 (-124)
Loser
Gerald Everett
- Team: Los Angeles Chargers
- Position: Tight End
- Prop Bet: Receiving Yards
- Betting Line: 28.5 o(-118)
Gerald Everett doesn’t get the attention of other players but he is a consistent producer. In 21 and 22 he combined to go over on 14 of his 22 receiving yards props during the regular season. The Titans allow opposing tight ends to go over on receiving yards 54.5% of the time.
Bet: Receiving Yards OVER 28.5 (-118)
Winner
Matthew Stafford
- Team: Los Angeles Rams
- Position: Quarterback
- Prop Bet: Passing Yards
- Betting Line: 225.5 u(-107)
Stafford is a mobile quarterback not a running quarterback. Against the 49ers he will be running a lot just to stay alive. The Rams offense looked good against the Seahawks but in this game they will be playing against one of the top defenses in the NFL and for the Rams to have a chance to win this game they will need to rely on running that ball and keeping the game close. Without Cooper Kupp making long gains out of short passes, Stafford just won’t have the big plays needed to rack up the passing yards. Over the last 2 regular seasons opposing quarterbacks are going over on their passing yards props just 28.7% of the time against the 49ers.
Bet: Matthew Stafford Passing Yards UNDER 225.5 (-107)
Loser
Derrick Henry
- Team: Tennessee Titans
- Position: Running Back
- Prop Bet: Rushing Yards
- Betting Line: 87.5 (-113)
The Titans have to lean on their best player in this game. Derrick Henry should get 20+ rushes in this game and will need to go over 100 yards for the Titans to have a chance. The Los Angeles Chargers defense has allowed opposing running backs to go over on 61.4% of their rushing yards props. Henry might get stacked up early but he will also break at least one long run to rack up the yards. I was really surprised when I saw a line under 100 yards and will be looking to bet the alternative rushing line to boost my profit.
Best Bet: Rushing Yards OVER 87.5 (-113)
Loser
Week 2 NFL Prop Bet Picks 2023 Thursday Night Football
Kirk Cousins
- Team: Minnesota Vikings
- Position: Quarterback
- Prop Bet: Passing yards
- BetOnline Betting Line: 267.5 0(-113) u(-113)
Kirk Cousins is one of my favorite garbage players. Does little in the first half and then has to pass every down in the second half to get the Vikings back in the game. Sounds like a good bet for the over, right. No way. One of the least understood parts of prop betting is how well the opposing team has held a player under on a particular prop bet.
Over the last two regular seasons the Philadelphia Eagles have been a top team in holding down opposing quarterbacks. Passing yards props are a good example of this. 32 regular season games had opposing quarterback passing yards props listed. In those games the quarterback has gone over 6 times and under 26 times. Yes, those are real numbers and it isn’t just because they are second rate quarterbacks. In the Super Bowl the Eagles held Mahomes under on his passing yards prop. The Eagles win games by running the ball and playing the best pass defense in the NFL. I suggest you shop around and don’t be afraid to bet late as the average gambler will always bet the over.
Bet:
Kirk Cousins Passing Yards UNDER 267.5 (-113)
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Loser
NFL Prop Bet Predictions 2023 will based on our exclusive betting model with over 75,000 player prop bet results since the 2017 season.There are many ways to bet on players in the NFL. One thing most prop bettors do not look at is how have other players done against an opposing defense on the same prop. It is a vital part of our NFL player prop prediction model.
As always, shop around for the best odds. I have 3 US sportsbooks and 3 offshore sportsbooks. The odds below are the first out so look for better odds.
NFL Player Prop Bet Model
NFL player prop bet picks are based on our exclusive betting model with over 75,000 player prop bet results since the 2015 season.There are many ways to bet on players in the NFL. Bet on a quarterbacks passing yards or interceptions. A running backs rushing or receiving yards. Not only are there more props to bet on but there are also more players to bet on. In 2015 when we started collecting player prop bet results. There were just over 6,000 prop bet results for the regular season. Compare that with over 15,000 player prop bet results for the 2022 season. In 2015 only the primary running back had props on him. Many tight ends didn’t have props to wager on. This all changed as fantasy football took off and people migrated over to making real money NFL bets on players.
NFL Player Prop Bet Strategy – Bet the Under
Somethings have not changed over the years. There is still a built in advantage for betting the under on NFL player props. Most fans want to bet the over and the sportsbook managers will take advantage of this by shading the lines a little bit. If Patrick Mahomes should have a passing yards prop of 285.5 yards. The books will put out a 290.5. They know the fans will still want to bet the over. If you are in it for entertainment then make the bet. However, if you are in it for the money then take advantage of the 3% built in edge for under bets.
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