Week 1 NFL Prop Bet Picks 2023

Week 1 NFL Prop Bet Picks 2023 Best Player Prop Predictions

Week 1 NFL Prop Bet Picks 2023

Week 1 NFL Prop Bet Picks 2023 will based on our exclusive betting model with over 75,000 player prop bet results since the 2015 season.There are many ways to bet on players in the NFL. One thing most prop bettors do not look at is how have other players done against an opposing defense on the same prop. It is a vital part of our NFL player prop prediction model.

As always, shop around for the best odds. I have 3 US sportsbooks and 3 offshore sportsbooks. The odds below are the first out so look for better odds.

Week 1 Thursday Night Football

Jahmyr Gibbs

  • Team: Detroit Lions
  • Position: Running back
  • Prop Bet: Receiving yards
  • Betting Line: 33.5 yards (-114)

Betting on a rookie making his debut on Thursday Night Football? He has an excellent matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs defense. Over the last two seasons opposing running backs have gone over on their receiving yards props 21 times and under just 7 times. It is driven by the defensive scheme that the Chiefs employ and will not change for this game. Chiefs opposing wide receivers have gone over on just 37.6% of their receiving yards props over the last two seasons. The Chiefs let opponents throw underneath. Gibbs will be open all day and Goff is perfectly willing to throw short passes all night.

Bet: Jahmyr Gibbs Receiving yards OVER 33.5 (-114) at BetOnline.

Loser: First half 2 targets, 2 receptions and 18 yards. Second half 0 targets. This guy reminds me of Tony Pollard. He should be getting 10 rushes and 5 receptions a game. Frustrated in the second half watching him sit on the bench but that is part of prop betting.

BetOnline.ag & MyBookie have several NFL contests available. Including a FREE $200,000 Mega Contest.

See our list of onshore & offshore contests available.

Enter until Sunday morning so hurry.

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Sunday NFL Player Prop Bet Picks


Justin Fields

  • Team: Chicago Bears
  • Position: Quarterback
  • Prop Bet: Passing yards
  • Betting Line: 180.5 (-115)

Fans love to bet the over. Bears fans are real believers in Fields. That explains why they keep betting the over on his passing yards props. All I can say to Bears fans is keep up the good work. Over the last two seasons Fields has gone over on his passing yards props 8 times and under 16. The Packers defense has held opposing quarterbacks under 42.4% of the time on this prop. With the Packers offense taking a  major step back. Why would the Bears throw when they can win just running the ball?

Bet: Passing yards UNDER 180.5 (-115)

Loser


Daniel Jones

  • Team: New York Giants
  • Position: Quarterback
  • Prop Bet: Passing touchdowns
  • Betting Line: 1.5 TDs (-238)

Another team with a large fan base. Good, keep betting the over on passing touchdown props Giants fans because it helps keep the line down. Over the last 2 seasons he has gone over on 8 of the 27 games this prop was offered. That is just 29.6%. He is going against a Dallas team that has held opposing quarterbacks under on this prop 58.3% of the time. Jones will get his touchdowns but it will be with his legs and not throwing.

Bet: Passing touchdowns UNDER 1.5 (-238)

Winner

Bet: Anytime touchdown scorer YES +185

Loser


Brain Robinson Jr

  • Team: Washington
  • Position: Running back
  • Prop Bet: Rushing yards
  • Betting Line: 46.5 (-115)

Brian went over on 8 of his 10 rushing yards props last season. He will be getting plenty of touches and draws a great match up in week one against a very weak Cardinals defense. What better way to help out a quarterback than by running Robinson 25+ times.

Bet: Rushing yards OVER 46.5 (-115)

Winner


Tony Pollard

  • Team: Dallas Cowboys
  • Position: Running back
  • Prop Bet: Combined rushing & receiving yards
  • Betting Line: 84.5 (-115)

Tony Pollard is the man now. He will get his touches against the Giants. Pollard was the better running back last season and it was frustrating to see him come off the field when he still looked fresh. The thing I really like about Pollard is he is a very good receiving back. Over the last two season Pollard has gone over on his combined yards prop 19 of the 25 times it was offered. This is a higher percentage than either his receiving yards or rushing yards props.  Instead of trying to guess if he will get a big run or reception. Cover the board and take the combined yardage.

Bet: Combined rushing and receiving yards OVER 84.5 (-115)

Loser


Justin Herbert

  • Team: Los Angeles Chargers
  • Position: Quarterback
  • Prop Bet: Passing attempts
  • Betting Line: 37.5 (-130)

This isn’t an easy prop to find. Passing attempts isn’t a stat that most people will ever care about. However, if you are betting for money and not entertainment then try this one. Over the last 2 seasons Herbert has gone over 19 times and under just 8 times. The reason for this hasn’t changed. The Chargers can not run the consistently. In must run situations they are just horrible. When it is third and one expect the Chargers to throw the ball.

Bet: Justin Herbert passing attempts OVER 37.5 (-130)

Winner


Joe Burrow

  • Team: Cincinnati Bengals
  • Position: Quarterback
  • Prop Bet: Passing yards
  • Betting Line: 256.5 (-115)

Joe Burrow is going to need to get lucky to hit the over on his passing yards prop. The Cleveland defensive line is stacked and should be able to control the line of scrimmage. Joe Burrow over the last two regular seasons has gone over on his passing yards prop 15 times and under 17.  Not bad with just a slight lean to the under. However, the Cleveland Browns defense over the last two regular seasons has held opposing quarterbacks under 22 of 31 times the prop was offered. That is just a 29% rate of quarterbacks covering the over.

Bet: Passing yards UNDER 256.5 (-115)

Winner


Amari Cooper

  • Team: Cleveland Browns
  • Position: Wide receiver
  • Prop Bet: Receptions
  • Betting Line: 4.5 (-140)

Amari Cooper has not been a very productive receiver over the last couple of seasons. There is hope that Deshaun Watson will lift his production but he was on the downward trend with the Cowboys. The public keeps betting the over and he keeps cashing for the sportsbook going over just 8 times and under 20 times in the last two seasons. Bengals opposing wide receivers have gone over on receptions props just 43% of the time over the last two seasons. The Bengals do a good job of funneling opposing teams away from the wide receivers which is one reason the target share for opposing wide receivers is a relatively low 58%.

Bet: Receptions UNDER 4.5 (-140)

Winner

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NFL Player Prop Bet Model

NFL player prop bet picks are based on our exclusive betting model with over 75,000 player prop bet results since the 2015 season.There are many ways to bet on players in the NFL. Bet on a quarterbacks passing yards or interceptions. A running backs rushing or receiving yards. Not only are there more props to bet on but there are also more players to bet on. In 2015 when we started collecting player prop bet results. There were just over 6,000 prop bet results for the regular season. Compare that with over 15,000 player prop bet results for the 2022 season. In 2015 only the primary running back had props on him. Many tight ends didn’t have props to wager on. This all changed as fantasy football took off and people migrated over to making real money NFL bets on players.

NFL Player Prop Bet Strategy – Bet the Under

Somethings have not changed over the years. There is still a built in advantage for betting the under on NFL player props. Most fans want to bet the over and the sportsbook managers will take advantage of this by shading the lines a little bit. If Patrick Mahomes should have a passing yards prop of 285.5 yards. The books will put out a 290.5. They know the fans will still want to bet the over. If you are in it for entertainment then make the bet. However, if you are in it for the money then take advantage of the 3% built in edge for under bets.