Sunday NFL Player Prop Bet Picks

Justin Fields

• Team: Chicago Bears
• Position: Quarterback
• Prop Bet: Passing yards
• Betting Line: 180.5 (-115)

Fans love to bet the over. Bears fans are real believers in Fields. That explains why they keep betting the over on his passing yards props. All I can say to Bears fans is keep up the good work. Over the last two seasons Fields has gone over on his passing yards props 8 times and under 16. The Packers defense has held opposing quarterbacks under 42.4% of the time on this prop. With the Packers offense taking a  major step back. Why would the Bears throw when they can win just running the ball?

Bet: Passing yards UNDER 180.5 (-115)

Loser

Daniel Jones

• Team: New York Giants
• Position: Quarterback
• Prop Bet: Passing touchdowns
• Betting Line: 1.5 TDs (-238)

Another team with a large fan base. Good, keep betting the over on passing touchdown props Giants fans because it helps keep the line down. Over the last 2 seasons he has gone over on 8 of the 27 games this prop was offered. That is just 29.6%. He is going against a Dallas team that has held opposing quarterbacks under on this prop 58.3% of the time. Jones will get his touchdowns but it will be with his legs and not throwing.

Bet: Passing touchdowns UNDER 1.5 (-238)

Winner

Bet: Anytime touchdown scorer YES +185

Loser

Brain Robinson Jr

• Team: Washington
• Position: Running back
• Prop Bet: Rushing yards
• Betting Line: 46.5 (-115)

Brian went over on 8 of his 10 rushing yards props last season. He will be getting plenty of touches and draws a great match up in week one against a very weak Cardinals defense. What better way to help out a quarterback than by running Robinson 25+ times.

Bet: Rushing yards OVER 46.5 (-115)

Winner

Tony Pollard

• Team: Dallas Cowboys
• Position: Running back
• Prop Bet: Combined rushing & receiving yards
• Betting Line: 84.5 (-115)

Tony Pollard is the man now. He will get his touches against the Giants. Pollard was the better running back last season and it was frustrating to see him come off the field when he still looked fresh. The thing I really like about Pollard is he is a very good receiving back. Over the last two season Pollard has gone over on his combined yards prop 19 of the 25 times it was offered. This is a higher percentage than either his receiving yards or rushing yards props.  Instead of trying to guess if he will get a big run or reception. Cover the board and take the combined yardage.

Bet: Combined rushing and receiving yards OVER 84.5 (-115)

Loser

Justin Herbert

• Team: Los Angeles Chargers
• Position: Quarterback
• Prop Bet: Passing attempts
• Betting Line: 37.5 (-130)

This isn’t an easy prop to find. Passing attempts isn’t a stat that most people will ever care about. However, if you are betting for money and not entertainment then try this one. Over the last 2 seasons Herbert has gone over 19 times and under just 8 times. The reason for this hasn’t changed. The Chargers can not run the consistently. In must run situations they are just horrible. When it is third and one expect the Chargers to throw the ball.

Bet: Justin Herbert passing attempts OVER 37.5 (-130)

Winner

Joe Burrow

• Team: Cincinnati Bengals
• Position: Quarterback
• Prop Bet: Passing yards
• Betting Line: 256.5 (-115)

Joe Burrow is going to need to get lucky to hit the over on his passing yards prop. The Cleveland defensive line is stacked and should be able to control the line of scrimmage. Joe Burrow over the last two regular seasons has gone over on his passing yards prop 15 times and under 17.  Not bad with just a slight lean to the under. However, the Cleveland Browns defense over the last two regular seasons has held opposing quarterbacks under 22 of 31 times the prop was offered. That is just a 29% rate of quarterbacks covering the over.

Bet: Passing yards UNDER 256.5 (-115)

Winner

Amari Cooper

• Team: Cleveland Browns
• Position: Wide receiver
• Prop Bet: Receptions
• Betting Line: 4.5 (-140)

Amari Cooper has not been a very productive receiver over the last couple of seasons. There is hope that Deshaun Watson will lift his production but he was on the downward trend with the Cowboys. The public keeps betting the over and he keeps cashing for the sportsbook going over just 8 times and under 20 times in the last two seasons. Bengals opposing wide receivers have gone over on receptions props just 43% of the time over the last two seasons. The Bengals do a good job of funneling opposing teams away from the wide receivers which is one reason the target share for opposing wide receivers is a relatively low 58%.

Bet: Receptions UNDER 4.5 (-140)

Winner