Same Game Parlay & Prop Correlation Picks NFL 2023 Week 6
NFL Prop Bet Picks 2023 Week 6
Thursday Night Football Correlation Bets
Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs
Thursday Night Football has the Denver Broncos visiting the Kansas City Chiefs. This AFC West game may just end up as a blowout. The Broncos are one of the worst teams in the NFL and the Chiefs are one of the bets.
When making correlation bets the first thing to start with is what game outcome do you like. Spread or totals bet? Maybe both?
If you like an outcome then please use our NFL correlations betting database to do research and find the player prop bet that matches your game prediction.
For this game I am just going with a prop bet parlay.
Russel Wilson
- Team : Denver Broncos
- Position : Quarterback
- Prop Bet : Interceptions
- Betting Line : 0.5 0(-115) u(-115)
Isiah Pacheco
- Team : Kansas City Chiefs
- Position : Running Back
- Prop Bet : Rushing Yards
- Betting Line : 100+ (+245)
Straight Bets :
- Russel Wilson : Interceptions OVER 0.5 (-110)
- Isiah Pacheco : Rushing Yards Prop OVER 100 +245
Correlation Bet : +500
- Russel Wilson Interceptions OVER
- Isiah Pacheco Rushing Yards Prop OVER
One important part of betting on props is getting a game script in mind. What do I expect to happen and then look at the bets that correlate to the outcome. In this game I have the Chiefs getting out to a 2 or 3 touchdown lead. Sounds good for Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. However, the Chiefs get conservative in the second half of games when they have a lead. I fully expect Isiah Pacheco to get 18+ carries against a weak Broncos rushing defense. For the Broncos, Russell Wilson just doesn’t have the arm strength he used to have. But, what are you going to do if you are the Broncos and down by 20 points going into the fourth quarter? Bench Wilson? Maybe, but not until he has thrown at least one interception or maybe even two. This is just a bad match up for the Broncos who do not have the defensive talent to stop the Chiefs and also have an old quarterback with a noodle arm.
Loser. Wilson came through but Isiah didn’t get the touches I expected in the second half. A really frustrating game to watch.
Want to do your own research? Use our SGP Database for 2022 FREE
Looking for online wagering promotions? Here are current bonuses for casino, poker, sports betting and more. Online Betting Bonus Codes
Sunday NFL Correlations Bets
Baltimore Ravens vs Tennessee Titans
To be played in Europe with a 6:30am Las Vegas Time kickoff.
Lamar Jackson has been a good bet on the under when the game total goes under. Last weeks game against the Steelers showed that the Ravens are still not a consistent offense other than when Lamar runs the ball. The total is at 41.5 and the under is the bet I have on the game. To correlate with the under for game total I am adding on Lamar Jackson under on his passing yards prop.
Lamar Jackson
- Team: Baltimore Ravens
- Position: Quarterback
- Passing Yards
- Betting Line: 220.5 u(-120)
Lamar Jackson
- Team: Baltimore Ravens
- Position: Quarterback
- Passing Attempts
- Betting Line: 29.5 u(-131)
Lamar Jackson
- Team: Baltimore Ravens
- Position: Quarterback
- Rushing Yards
- Betting Line: 44.5 0(-125)
Straight Bets :
- Lamar Jackson Passing Yards UNDER 220.5 (-117)
- Lamar Jackson Passing Attempts UNDER 29.5 (-131)
- Lamar Jackson Rushing Yards OVER 44.5 (-125)
- Game Total UNDER 41.5 (-110)
Correlation Bet : +4.50
- Lamar Jackson Passing Yards UNDER 220.5
- Lamar Jackson Passing Attempts UNDER 29.5
- Lamar Jackson Rushing Yards OVER 44.5
- Game Total UNDER
Carolina Panthers vs Miami Dolphins
This game has a very obvious prop bet and game total correlation.
When the Dolphins games go over the point total over the last two seasons. Tua has gone over on his passing yards prop 9 times and under 1 time. Compare that to when the game total goes under. He went over on his passing yards prop 7 times and under 8 times.
After watching and betting on several Miami Dolphin games one important part of prop betting has become clear. The Dolphins keep trying to score even after the game outcome has been decided.
The props are all on the alternative line. The return is not as great on the regular prop line but if you want to play for the big money here it is.
Tua Tagovailoa
- Team: Miami Dolphins
- Position: Quarterback
- Prop Bet: Passing Yards
- Betting Line: 300+ (+135)
Tyreek Hill
- Team: Miami Dolphins
- Position: Wide Receiver
- Prop Bet: Receiving Yards
- Betting Line: 100+ (+125)
Jalen Waddle
- Team: Miami Dolphins
- Position: Wide Receiver
- Prop Bet: Receiving Yards
- Betting Line: 75+ (+160)
Straight Bets :
- Game Total : OVER 47.5 (-110)
- Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards Prop : OVER
- Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards 100+ (+128)
- Jalen Waddle Receiving Yards 75+ (+160)
Correlation Bet : +1800
- Game Total OVER
- Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards Prop OVER
- Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards 100+ (+128)
- Jalen Waddle Receiving Yards 75+ (+160)
Washington Commanders vs Atlanta Falcons
Desmond Ridder has been a solid bet this season. He has gone over on his passing yards prop four out of the first five games. He gets a really weak Washington defense to go against today and he should easily go over his passing yards prop.
As long as Ridder flys below the ESPN hype machine he should be a solid option on the over on his passing prop bets. The Falcons are only a 1.5 point favorite at home and I also have them covering the spread to make my same game parlay.
Desmond Ridder
- Team: Atlanta Falcons
- Position: Quarterback
- Prop Bet: Passing Yards
- Betting Line: 201.5 0(-115)
Straight Bets :
- Falcons spread : -1.5 (-110)
- Desmond Ridder Passing Yards Prop : OVER
Correlation Bet : +255
- Falcons -1.5
- Desmond Ridder Passing Yards Prop OVER
T
NFL Player Prop Bet Model
NFL player prop bet picks are based on our exclusive betting model with over 75,000 player prop bet results since the 2015 season.There are many ways to bet on players in the NFL. Bet on a quarterbacks passing yards or interceptions. A running backs rushing or receiving yards. Not only are there more props to bet on but there are also more players to bet on. In 2015 when we started collecting player prop bet results. There were just over 6,000 prop bet results for the regular season. Compare that with over 15,000 player prop bet results for the 2022 season. In 2015 only the primary running back had props on him. Many tight ends didn’t have props to wager on. This all changed as fantasy football took off and people migrated over to making real money NFL bets on players.
NFL Player Prop Bet Strategy – Bet the Under
Somethings have not changed over the years. There is still a built in advantage for betting the under on NFL player props. Most fans want to bet the over and the sportsbook managers will take advantage of this by shading the lines a little bit. If Patrick Mahomes should have a passing yards prop of 285.5 yards. The books will put out a 290.5. They know the fans will still want to bet the over. If you are in it for entertainment then make the bet. However, if you are in it for the money then take advantage of the 3% built in edge for under bets.
Note: Gambling should be entertaining. Please do not gamble more than you can afford to lose. If you are having problems controlling your gambling please contact the National Council on Problem Gambling.
NFL Prop Bet Predictions 2023 will based on our exclusive betting model with over 75,000 player prop bet results since the 2017 season.There are many ways to bet on players in the NFL. One thing most prop bettors do not look at is how have other players done against an opposing defense on the same prop. It is a vital part of our NFL player prop prediction model.
As always, shop around for the best odds. I have 3 US sportsbooks and 3 offshore sportsbooks. The odds below are the first out so look for better odds.
