NFL Wild Card Game Prop Bet Picks

NFL Wild Card Prop Bet Picks & Prop Bet Correlation 2024


Monday NFL Player Prop Bet Parlay

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Buffalo Bills

The Steelers made the playoffs. However, I don’t think they will be in long. The weather should play a factor in this game with snow showers and 15+ mph winds.

This season the Buffalo Bills have dominated the second quarter covering the spread 11 times and losing just 6 times. The Steelers on the other hand have covered only 5 times and lost against the spread 12 times. Lets face it. Emotion may work in the first quarter but talent and coaching dominate the second quarter.

For the Steelers there is a correlation that most people wouldn’t expect. When the Steelers fail to cover the 2nd quarter spread and receiving yards prop was offered on George Pickens. Pat Freiermuth went over on his receiving yards prop 2 times and under 8 times.

Correlation bets are determined by the main bet which in this case is the Buffalo Bills 2nd quarter spread of -3.5 +100.

James Cook

  • Team: Buffalo Bills
  • Position: Running Back
  • Prop Bet: Receiving Yards
  • Betting Line: 16.5 0(-110)

Pat Freiermuth

  • Team: Pittsburgh Steelers
  • Position: Tight End
  • Prop Bet: Receiving Yards
  • Betting Line: 21.5 u(-105)

2nd Quarter Spread

  • Team: Buffalo Bills
  • Position: Team
  • Prop Bet: 2nd Quarter Spread
  • Betting Line: -3.5 (+100)

Straight Bets :

  • 2nd Quarter Spread Bills -3.5 (+100) 
  • James Cook Receiving Yards Prop : OVER 16.5 (-110)
  • Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards Prop : UNDER 21.5 (-105)

Correlation Bet : +575

  • 2nd Quarter Spread Bills -3.5 (+100) 
  • James Cook Receiving Yards Prop : OVER 19.5 (-110)
  • Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards Prop : UNDER 21.5 (-120)

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Monday Night NFL Player Prop Bet Parlay

Philadelphia Eagles vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

No AJ Brown will hurt an already down Eagles offense. Who will replace him? Nobody. The Buccaneers are home dogs and this game should be a pick so I am on Tampa Bay plus the 3 points.

The main bet is the Buccaneers +3 points on the game spread.

It might not be on your list of prop bets with the Buccaneers winning against the spread but Dallas Goedert has gone over on his receiving yards prop 5 times and under just one time when the Eagles lose against the spread.

When Tampa Bay covers the point spread you can look directly at Baker Mayfield to over perform on expectations. When Tampa covers the point spread Baker has gone over on his passing yards prop 8 times and under 3 times. He has the same numbers on his passing touchdowns, going over 8 times and under just 3 times.

Dallas Goedert

  • Team: Philadelphia Eagles
  • Position: Tight End
  • Receiving Yards
  • Betting Line: 48.5 o(-115)

Baker Mayfield

  • Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Position: Quarterback
  • Passing Yards
  • Betting Line: 236.5 o(-120)

Baker Mayfield

  • Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Position: Quarterback
  • Passing Touchdowns
  • Betting Line: 1.5+ (+110)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Position: Team
  • Game Spread
  • Betting Line: +3 (-110)

Straight Bets :

  • Dallas Goedert Receiving Yards OVER 48.5 (-115)
  • Baker Mayfield Passing Yards OVER 236.5 (-120)
  • Baker Mayfield Passing Touchdowns OVER 1.5 (+110)
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers Game Spread +3 (-110)

Same Game Parlay : +700

  • Dallas Goedert Receiving Yards OVER 48.5 (-115)
  • Baker Mayfield Passing Yards OVER 236.5 (-120)
  • Baker Mayfield Passing Touchdowns OVER 1.5 (+110)
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers Game Spread +3 (-110)

Saturday NFL Playoff Prop Bet Picks

The NFL playoffs start on Saturday with Cleveland favored on the road in Houston.

Cleveland Browns vs Houston Texans Prop Bet Picks

The Texans have been one of the better teams at covering the 4th quarter spread this season. The Texans have covered the 4th quarter spread 12 times and failed to cover 5 times this season. The Browns have covered the 4th quarter spread 7 times and lost ATS 10 times. Even if the Texans are down going into the 4th quarter, they don’t give up.

In the games that he played in and the Texans covered the 4th quarter spread. CJ Stroud has gone over on his passing touchdowns prop 8 times and under 3 times.

Why fight the math?

Correlation bets are determined by the main bet which in this case is the Houston Texans 4th quarter spread of +0.5.

What about Flacco? He has had passing yards props up 5 times this season. All 5 times he went over the line. Not only has he gone over, the least he has covered the passing yards prop by is 54.5 yards.

CJ Stroud

  • Team: Houston Texans
  • Position: Quarterback
  • Prop Bet: Touchdown Passes
  • Betting Line: 1.5 o(+114)

Joe Flacco

  • Team: Cleveland Browns
  • Position: Quarterback
  • Prop Bet: Passing Yards
  • Betting Line: 275.5 (-115)

Texans 4th Quarter Spread

  • Team: Houston Texans
  • Position: Team
  • Bet: 4th Quarter Spread
  • Betting Line: +0.5. (-120)

Straight Bets :

  • CJ Stroud Passing Touchdown OVER 1.5 (+114) WIN
  • Joe Flacco Passing Yards OVER 275.5 (-115) WIN
  • 4th QTR Spread Texans +0.5 (-120) WIN

Correlation Bet : +585 WIN

  • CJ Stroud Passing Touchdown OVER 1.5 (+114)
  • Joe Flacco Passing Yards OVER 275.5 (-115)
  • 4th QTR Spread Texans +0.5 (-120)

Miami Dolphins vs Kansas City Chiefs

Frozen fish? I know both teams play in the same weather but lets face it. The Dolphins downfield passing game will be hindered by the weather in Kansas City.

What is the main bet for this game? A totals bet on the game to go under.

Correlation bets based on main bet which is the game total to go under 44.0 (-110)

Game Total Under

Kansas City has been one of the better NFL defenses in the league and slowly the Chiefs offense has adjusted to playing a little more conservatively. Add to that, the Chiefs receivers drop balls during nice weather. What will happen with cold hands in this game. On the other side the Dolphins offense just hasn’t looked the same on the road. A cold road game is exactly what this offense did not need.

Tua Tagovailoa Prop Bet Correlations

Not too surprising on this prop. When Dolphins games have gone under the total. Tua has gone over on his passing touchdown prop 0 times and under 7 times. That is the type of correlation I like

Patrick Mahomes Prop Bet Correlations

This one might not be what you expect. When Chiefs games have gone under the total. Patrick Mahomes has gone over on his passing attempts prop 7 times and under just 2 times. One nice thing about Chiefs wide receivers inability to hold onto the ball. It increases the number of passing attempts Mahomes for a scoring drive.

Tua Tagovailoa

  • Team: Miami Dolphins
  • Position: Quarterback
  • Prop : Passing Touchdowns
  • Betting Line: 1.5 (-166)

Patrick Mahomes

  • Team: Kansas City Chiefs
  • Position : Quarterback
  • Prop : Passing Attempts
  • Betting Line: 33.5  (-115)

Game Total

  • Team: Dolphins & Chiefs
  • Position : Team
  • Prop : Game Total
  • Betting Line: 44.0 (-110)

Straight Bets :

  • Patrick Mahomes Passing Attempts OVER 33.5 (-115) WIN
  • Tua Tagovailoa Passing Touchdowns UNDER 1.5 (-166) WIN
  • Game Total UNDER 44.0 (-110) WIN

Correlation Bet : +420 WIN

  • Patrick Mahomes Passing Attempts OVER 33.5 (-115)
  • Tua Tagovailoa Passing Touchdowns UNDER 1.5 (-166)
  • Game Total UNDER 44.0 (-110)

Sunday NFL Wild Card Game Correlation Bets

Green Bay Packers vs Dallas Cowboys Correlation Bets

The Cowboys at home have been a different animal.

Correlation bets based on the Cowboys covering the 7.0 game point spread.

When the Cowboys cover the spread, Dak has gone over on his passing yards prop 7 times and under 3 times. He has also been good a not making interceptions, going over on the interceptions prop 3 times and under 7.

Back to interceptions. When the Packers lose against the spread, Jordan Love has gone over on his interceptions prop 8 times and under 0. Yes, he will throw a pick if the Cowboys cover.

Dak Prescott

  • Team: Dallas Cowboys
  • Position: Quarterback
  • Prop Bet: Passing Yards
  • Betting Line: 286.5 (-115)

Dak Prescott

  • Team: Dallas Cowboys
  • Position: Quarterback
  • Prop Bet: Interceptions
  • Betting Line: 0.5 (-115)

Jordan Love

  • Team: Green Bay Packers
  • Position: Quarterback
  • Prop Bet: Interceptions
  • Betting Line: 0.5 (-175)

Game Spread

  • Team: Dallas Cowboys
  • Position: Team
  • Prop Bet: Game Spread
  • Betting Line: -7.0 (-120)

Straight Bets :

  • Dak Prescott Passing Yards Prop OVER 278.5
  • Dak Prescott Interceptions Prop UNDER 0.5
  • Jordan Love Interceptions Prop OVER 0.5
  • Game Spread Cowboys -7.0

Correlation Bet : +650

  • Dak Prescott Passing Yards Prop OVER 278.5
  • Dak Prescott Interceptions Prop UNDER 0.5
  • Jordan Love Interceptions Prop OVER 0.5
  • Game Spread Cowboys -7.0

 

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Los Angeles Rams vs Detroit Lions

Correlation bets are made off of one primary game bet and then adding in prop bets that correlate to the outcome.

Primary bet : Rams vs Lions OVER 52.5 points.

Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. Sometimes a shootout is just a shootout.

The Rams offense is healthy and they now have rookies with a full season of experience with the playbook. Matthew Stafford is coming home and he will be flinging the ball. Goff has a lot to prove? So does the entire Detroit organization. They made the trade that gave the Rams a Super Bowl victory and now it is time to show Lions fans that Detroit still got the better of the trade.

Lets start with the quarterbacks and the obvious. When Lions games have gone over the total, Jared Goff has gone over on his passing touchdowns props 8 times and under 3 times.

When Rams games have gone over the total, Matthew Stafford has gone over on his passing yards 6 times and under 2 times.

Kyren Williams is another player to add to the correlated bet. When the Rams games have gone over the total he has gone over on his rushing yards prop 5 times and under just 1 time. The Rams use him to setup play action and will keep using him to keep the pass rush off of Stafford.

Want to add on a receiver? He might not be the biggest name in this game but Tyler Higbee but when he has been in the game and the Rams have gone over on the game total. He went over on his receiving yards prop 6 times and under just 1 time.

If you haven’t checked out Bovada lately. The site has upgraded the player prop selection and is a viable second book to have when line shopping.

 

 

Matthew Stafford

  • Team : Las Angels Rams
  • Position : Quarterback
  • Prop Bet : Passing Yards
  • Betting Line : 279.5+ (-115)

Jared Goff

  • Team : Detroit Lions
  • Position : Quarterback
  • Prop Bet : Passing Touchdowns
  • Betting Line : 1.5 (-145)

Kyren Williams

  • Team : Los Angeles Rams
  • Position : Running Back
  • Prop Bet : Rushing Yards
  • Betting Line : 81.5 (-115)

Tyler Higbee

  • Team : Los Angeles Rams
  • Position : Tight End
  • Prop Bet : Receiving Yards
  • Betting Line : 28.5 (-115)

Game Total

  • Team : Both
  • Position : Total
  • Prop Bet : Game Total OVER
  • Betting Line : 52.5 (-110)

Straight Bets :

  • Matthew Stafford : Passing Yards OVER 279.5 (-115)
  • Jared Goff : Passing Touchdowns OVER 1.5 (-145)
  • Kyren Williams : Rushing Yards OVER 81.5 (-115)
  • Tyler Higbee : Receiving Yards OVER 28.5 (-115)
  • Game Total : OVER 52.5 (-110)

Correlation Bet : +900

  • Matthew Stafford : Passing Yards OVER 279.5 (-115)
  • Jared Goff : Passing Touchdowns OVER 1.5 (-145)
  • Kyren Williams : Rushing Yards OVER 81.5 (-115)
  • Tyler Higbee : Receiving Yards OVER 28.5 (-115)
  • Game Total : OVER 52.5 (-110)

Bet BOTH the straight bets and the correlation bets if you are trying to make sports betting a part time or full time job. If you are just looking for a little entertainment then placing a small bet on the same game parlay can be fun. I do both. A majority of my money is on straight bets but I also put down a little on the Same Game Parlay.

If you want to understand why and how much of a correlation there is. Please read my article

 

NFL Same Game Parlay & Player Prop Bet Correlations & Strategy

 

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NFL Player Prop Bet Model

NFL player prop bet picks are based on our exclusive betting model with over 75,000 player prop bet results since the 2015 season.There are many ways to bet on players in the NFL. Bet on a quarterbacks passing yards or interceptions. A running backs rushing or receiving yards. Not only are there more props to bet on but there are also more players to bet on. In 2015 when we started collecting player prop bet results. There were just over 6,000 prop bet results for the regular season. Compare that with over 15,000 player prop bet results for the 2022 season. In 2015 only the primary running back had props on him. Many tight ends didn’t have props to wager on. This all changed as fantasy football took off and people migrated over to making real money NFL bets on players.

NFL Player Prop Bet Strategy – Bet the Under

Somethings have not changed over the years. There is still a built in advantage for betting the under on NFL player props. Most fans want to bet the over and the sportsbook managers will take advantage of this by shading the lines a little bit. If Patrick Mahomes should have a passing yards prop of 285.5 yards. The books will put out a 290.5. They know the fans will still want to bet the over. If you are in it for entertainment then make the bet. However, if you are in it for the money then take advantage of the 3% built in edge for under bets.

Note: Gambling should be entertaining. Please do not gamble more than you can afford to lose. If you are having problems controlling your gambling please contact the National Council on Problem Gambling.

NFL Prop Bet Predictions 2023 will based on our exclusive betting model with over 75,000 player prop bet results since the 2017 season.There are many ways to bet on players in the NFL. One thing most prop bettors do not look at is how have other players done against an opposing defense on the same prop. It is a vital part of our NFL player prop prediction model.

As always, shop around for the best odds. I have 3 US sportsbooks and 3 offshore sportsbooks. The odds below are the first out so look for better odds.

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