NFL Week 9 Same Game Parlay & Prop Correlation Picks 2023
NFL Prop Bet Picks 2023 Week 9
Thursday Night Football Correlation Bets
Tennessee Titans vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Two ugly offenses are all we have tonight.
Before making prop bets, the first question is who will win and how high of a total do I expect. I have the game going under a low total of 36.5. This will be a game dominated by the running backs and missed passes.
With a high numbers of carries expected. I like to look at the second running back to get more touches than normal. The Steelers Jaylen Warren has gone over the 25.5 rushing yards prop in four of the last five games. I am looking at 35+ yards from him tonight.
With the running game working there will be less need to have Kenny Pickett pass the ball. Lets face it. If the Steelers can just run and play defense they will. I know there is a lot of talk about Will Levis and what he did against the Falcons but, the Steelers will be at home on a short week. The defense will have some film to go over and I expect the defense to get to Levis and make several errant throws. Again, with a low scoring close game the Titans will also be more likely to just run the ball and keep the game close to the fourth quarter.
Same Game Parlay based on the UNDER on the game total.
If you like an outcome then please use our NFL correlations betting database to do research and find the player prop bet that matches your game prediction.
Kenny Pickett
- Team : Pittsburgh Steelers
- Position : Quarterback
- Prop Bet : Passing Yards
- Betting Line : 215.5 u(-115)
Jaylen Warren
- Team : Pittsburgh Steelers
- Position : Running Back
- Prop Bet : Rushing Yards
- Betting Line : 25.5 o(-115)
Game Total
- Team : Titans vs Steelers
- Position : Team
- Prop Bet : Total
- Betting Line : 36.5 u(-110)
Straight Bets :
- Kenny Pickett : Passing Yards UNDER 215.5 (-115) Winner
- Jaylen Warren : Rushing Yards OVER 25.5 (-115) Winner
- Game Total : UNDER 36.5 (-110) Winner
Correlation Bet : +430 Winner
- Kenny Pickett : Passing Yards UNDER 215.5 (-115)
- Jaylen Warren : Rushing Yards OVER 25.5 (-115)
- Game Total : UNDER 36.5 (-110)
Bet BOTH the straight bets and the correlation bets if you are trying to make sports betting a part time or full time job. If you are just looking for a little entertainment then placing a small bet on the same game parlay can be fun. I do both. A majority of my money is on straight bets but I also put down a little on the Same Game Parlay.
If you want to understand why and how much of a correlation there is. Please read my article
NFL Same Game Parlay & Player Prop Bet Correlations & Strategy
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NFL Week 9 Same Game Parlay & Prop Correlation Picks 2023 Sunday bets to be released later this week.
Europe Sunday NFL Player Prop Bet Parlay
This Sunday the NFL is back in Europe with one of the top games of the year. What the hell are you doing NFL? A top game and it will start at 6:30am on the West Coast. How many viewers are you going to lose because your audience in cities like Las Vegas are still in bed asleep.
Great game to watch but I will get my action in early in case I oversleep.
Miami Dolphins vs Kansas City Chiefs
A high scoring game? Yep. The total is at 51 with a slight odds lean to the under. That is about what I have as a game total with my projection at 54 points. I won’t be betting on the total because I see better value on some of the touchdown scorers.
There are two players starting to emerge from the shadows of the star players. For the Dolphins, Jaylen Waddle has not gotten the press because of Tyreek Hill but he is getting open and as more teams scheme to stop Hill he will be getting more targets.
Travis Kelce has gotten a lot of press lately and he has been one of the best receivers in the NFL for years. Rookie Rashee Rice is getting more targets each week and it looks like Patrick Mahomes now trusts him. Rashee is in a prime spot to be a downfield threat for the Chiefs.
Just two picks? Yes, bets on both the straight bets and on the SGP are still a nice return.
Jaylen Waddle
- Team: Miami Dolphins
- Position: Wide Receiver
- Touchdown
- Betting Line: +150
Rashee Rice
- Team: Kansas City Chiefs
- Position: Wide Receiver
- Touchdown
- Betting Line: +245
Straight Bets :
- Jalen Waddle Anytime Touchdown +150
- Rasheed Rice Anytime Touchdown +245
Same Game Parlay : +625
- Jalen Waddle Anytime Touchdown +150
- Rasheed Rice Anytime Touchdown +245
Sunday NFL Player Prop Bet Parlay
Indianapolis Colts vs Carolina Panthers
A big question is should I use Jonathan Taylor now that he is healthy? Everyone is focusing on him while Zack Moss continues to produce. Yes, the usage for Moss has dropped since Taylor returned but the Colts are a run first team. Against one of the worst rushing defenses in the league the Colts will rush the ball 35+ times and may even hit 40+. What does this mean for Moss? I have him running 12+ times for over 58 yards and getting a touchdown.
This bet would not have had as much value before Taylor came back but now in the right situation, Moss is gold or should I say green.
Zack Moss
- Team: Indianapolis Colts
- Position: Running Back
- Rushing Yards
- Betting Line: 41.5 0(-120)
Zack Moss
- Team: Indianapolis Colts
- Position: Running Back
- Anytime Touchdown
- Betting Line: +170
Colts
- Team: Indianapolis Colts
- Position: Team
- Spread
- Betting Line: -2 0(-110)
Straight Bets :
- Zack Moss Rushing Yards : OVER 41.5 (-120)
- Zack Moss Anytime Touchdown : +170
- Colts Spread Bet -2
Correlation Bet : +525
- Zack Moss Rushing Yards : OVER 41.5 (-120)
- Zack Moss Anytime Touchdown : +170
- Colts Spread Bet -2
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NFL Player Prop Bet Model
NFL player prop bet picks are based on our exclusive betting model with over 75,000 player prop bet results since the 2015 season.There are many ways to bet on players in the NFL. Bet on a quarterbacks passing yards or interceptions. A running backs rushing or receiving yards. Not only are there more props to bet on but there are also more players to bet on. In 2015 when we started collecting player prop bet results. There were just over 6,000 prop bet results for the regular season. Compare that with over 15,000 player prop bet results for the 2022 season. In 2015 only the primary running back had props on him. Many tight ends didn’t have props to wager on. This all changed as fantasy football took off and people migrated over to making real money NFL bets on players.
NFL Player Prop Bet Strategy – Bet the Under
Somethings have not changed over the years. There is still a built in advantage for betting the under on NFL player props. Most fans want to bet the over and the sportsbook managers will take advantage of this by shading the lines a little bit. If Patrick Mahomes should have a passing yards prop of 285.5 yards. The books will put out a 290.5. They know the fans will still want to bet the over. If you are in it for entertainment then make the bet. However, if you are in it for the money then take advantage of the 3% built in edge for under bets.
Note: Gambling should be entertaining. Please do not gamble more than you can afford to lose. If you are having problems controlling your gambling please contact the National Council on Problem Gambling.
NFL Prop Bet Predictions 2023 will based on our exclusive betting model with over 75,000 player prop bet results since the 2017 season.There are many ways to bet on players in the NFL. One thing most prop bettors do not look at is how have other players done against an opposing defense on the same prop. It is a vital part of our NFL player prop prediction model.
As always, shop around for the best odds. I have 3 US sportsbooks and 3 offshore sportsbooks. The odds below are the first out so look for better odds.
