NFL Player Prop Bet Predictions 2023 Week 8

NFL Week 8 Same Game Parlay & Prop Correlation Picks 2023

NFL Prop Bet Picks 2023 Week 8

Thursday Night Football Correlation Bets

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Buffalo Bills

Buffalo has been a disappointment this season. How do the Bills get back on track? Play a below average team at home.

Before making prop bets, the first question is who will win and how high of a total do I expect. I have the Bills winning this game easily by double digits and that is good for Baker Mayfield bettors.

With the Bills up early, Mayfield will get plenty of attempts to bring the Bucs back in the game. Love the over on his props.

Same Game Parlay based on the UNDER on the game total.

If you like an outcome then please use our NFL correlations betting database to do research and find the player prop bet that matches your game prediction.

Baker Mayfield

  • Team : Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Position : Quarterback
  • Prop Bet : Passing Yards
  • Betting Line : 228.5 o(-115)

Baker Mayfield

  • Team : Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Position : Quarterback
  • Prop Bet : Passing Attempts
  • Betting Line : 33.5 o(-131)

Baker Mayfield

  • Team : Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Position : Quarterback
  • Prop Bet : Passing Completions
  • Betting Line : 21.5 o(-121)

Straight Bets :

  • Baker Mayfield : Completions OVER 21.5 (-121) Winner
  • Baker Mayfield : Passing Yards OVER 228.5 (-115) Winner
  • Baker Mayfield : Passing Attempts OVER 33.5 (-131) Winner

Correlation Bet : +135 NO Bet

  • Baker Mayfield : Completions OVER 21.5 (-121) 
  • Baker Mayfield : Passing Yards OVER 228.5 (-115) 
  • Baker Mayfield : Passing Attempts OVER 33.5 (-131)

 This is a vital part of prop betting. Sometimes the correlation between the bets is so high that the sportsbook offers no value in a same game parlay. This is one of those days. The +135 for all three to hit is just not worth the action. I am only straight betting this game.

If you want to understand why and how much of a correlation there is. Please read my article

 

NFL Same Game Parlay & Player Prop Bet Correlations & Strategy

 

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NFL Week 8 Same Game Parlay & Prop Correlation Picks 2023 Sunday bets to be released later this week.

 

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Sunday NFL Player Prop Bet Parlay

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Pittsburgh Steelers

The prop bets correlate to the total bet on the game.

The Jaguars will hold down the Steelers running game forcing Kenny Pickett into 37+ passing attempts. The high volume will get him over the hump on his passing yards prop. The Steelers defense can be beat. The Jags have a balanced offense with Etienne & Kirk both getting touches. The Steelers defense depends on the pass rush. They will get to Lawrence but when they don’t the defensive backs are vulnerable. Especially to wide receiver 1.

Game script. Jags shutdown the Steelers running game and force Pickett to throw. The Jags will run Etienne early to slow down the Steelers pass rush and then go downfield to Kirk looking for big plays.

The game will be played in a little rain but the wind is not projected to be high enough to affect the passing game.

Kenny Pickett

  • Team: Pittsburgh Steelers
  • Position: Quarterback
  • Passing Yards
  • Betting Line: 215.5 0(-120)

Travis Etienne

  • Team: Jacksonville Jaguars
  • Position: Running Back
  • Rushing Yards
  • Betting Line: 61.5 0(-115)

Christian Kirk

  • Team: Jacksonville Jaguars
  • Position: Wide Receiver
  • Receiving Yards
  • Betting Line: 54.5 0(-129)

Straight Bets :

  • Jaguars vs Steelers OVER 41.0
  • Kenny Pickett Passing Yards Prop : OVER 215.5 (-117)
  • Travis Etienne Rushing Yards : OVER 64.5 (-120)
  • Christian Kirk Receiving Yards : OVER 54.5 (-130)

Correlation Bet : +800

  • Jaguars vs Steelers OVER 41.0
  • Kenny Pickett Passing Yards Prop : OVER 215.5 (-120)
  • Travis Etienne Rushing Yards : OVER 615 (-120)
  • Christian Kirk Receiving Yards : OVER 54.5 (-120)

Houston Texans vs Carolina Panthers

CJ Stoud has been the better rookie quarterback and today he has a chance to show off his skills. Stroud is also on the better team which helps him a lot in his rookie development. Stroud gets a good match up against the Panthers weak passing defense. Can the Panthers score enough to get this game over the total? Yes, the passing game is starting to pick up with Bryce Young getting the ball to Adam Thielen combination. In fact, while I did not add him on the same game parlay. If I was going to add one more bet it would be Adam Thielen over on his receiving yards prop.

CJ Stroud

  • Team: Houston Texans
  • Position: Quarterback
  • Prop Bet: Passing Yards
  • Betting Line: 275+ (+210) 

Game Total

  • Team: Houston Texans vs Carolina Panthers
  • Position: Team
  • Prop Bet: Total Over
  • Betting Line: 43.0 (-110)

Straight Bets :

  • CJ Stroud Alt Passing Yards +275
  • Game Total : OVER 43.0

Correlation Bet : +300

  • CJ Stroud Alt Passing Yards +275
  • Game Total : OVER 43.0

Monday NFL Correlations Bets

Detroit Lions vs Las Vegas Raiders

The Lions got rolled last time out by the Ravens on the road. The Lions defense has gotten a lot of credit but take a look at some of the offenses they have played against; Falcons, Packers and, Panthers. Yes, they did a good job against the Chiefs in week one but in week two the Seahawks put up 37 points. The Lions offense is better in a dome and the Raiders dome along with weak defensive backs should provide a chance for Goff to put up big numbers.

On the Raiders side, Jimmy G is back. Yes, he is the best quarterback on the roster and when he gets time he will get off some deep passes. Taking props based on the game going over the 45.5 total.

Jared Goff

  • Team: Detroit Lions
  • Position: Quarterback
  • Prop Bet: Passing Touchdowns
  • Betting Line: 2.5 o(+210)

Jimmy Garoppolo

  • Team: Las Vegas Raiders
  • Position: Quarterback
  • Prop Bet: Touchdown Passes
  • Betting Line: 1.5 o(+104)

Jakobi Meyers

  • Team: Las Vegas Raiders
  • Position: Wide Receiver
  • Prop Bet: Receiving Yards
  • Betting Line: 61.5 o(-119)

Total Bet

  • Team: Lions vs Raiders
  • Position: Team
  • Prop Bet: Total Over
  • Betting Line: 45.5 (-110)

Straight Bets :

  • Jared Goff Passing Touchdowns Prop OVER 2.5
  • Jimmy Garoppolo Touchdowns Prop OVER 1.5
  • Jakobi Meyers Receiving Yards Prop OVER 61.5
  • Game Total OVER 45.5

Correlation Bet : +900

  • Jared Goff Passing Touchdowns Prop OVER 2.5
  • Jimmy Garoppolo Touchdowns Prop OVER 1.5
  • Jakobi Meyers Receiving Yards Prop OVER 61.5
  • Game Total OVER 45.5

 

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NFL Player Prop Bet Model

NFL player prop bet picks are based on our exclusive betting model with over 75,000 player prop bet results since the 2015 season.There are many ways to bet on players in the NFL. Bet on a quarterbacks passing yards or interceptions. A running backs rushing or receiving yards. Not only are there more props to bet on but there are also more players to bet on. In 2015 when we started collecting player prop bet results. There were just over 6,000 prop bet results for the regular season. Compare that with over 15,000 player prop bet results for the 2022 season. In 2015 only the primary running back had props on him. Many tight ends didn’t have props to wager on. This all changed as fantasy football took off and people migrated over to making real money NFL bets on players.

NFL Player Prop Bet Strategy – Bet the Under

Somethings have not changed over the years. There is still a built in advantage for betting the under on NFL player props. Most fans want to bet the over and the sportsbook managers will take advantage of this by shading the lines a little bit. If Patrick Mahomes should have a passing yards prop of 285.5 yards. The books will put out a 290.5. They know the fans will still want to bet the over. If you are in it for entertainment then make the bet. However, if you are in it for the money then take advantage of the 3% built in edge for under bets.

Note: Gambling should be entertaining. Please do not gamble more than you can afford to lose. If you are having problems controlling your gambling please contact the National Council on Problem Gambling.

NFL Prop Bet Predictions 2023 will based on our exclusive betting model with over 75,000 player prop bet results since the 2017 season.There are many ways to bet on players in the NFL. One thing most prop bettors do not look at is how have other players done against an opposing defense on the same prop. It is a vital part of our NFL player prop prediction model.

As always, shop around for the best odds. I have 3 US sportsbooks and 3 offshore sportsbooks. The odds below are the first out so look for better odds.