NFL Player Prop Bet Picks Week 7

NFL Week 7 Same Game Parlay & Prop Correlation Picks 2023

NFL Prop Bet Picks 2023 Week 7

Thursday Night Football Correlation Bets

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New Orleans Saints

Thursday Night Football has the Jaguars visiting the Saints in New Orleans. Last season everything went right for Jacksonville in the second half of the season. This year has been a reality check. Yes, the Jags have some decent offensive players but overall this is still a bottom ten NFL roster. The Saints brought in Derek Carr to save the offense. It needs more than an average NFL quarterback to turn this team around. 

The under has been hitting at a pretty good clip this season and these two teams are contributors to it. The public has overrated both offenses because the quarterbacks are also overrated. Neither is a top 5 QB with the talent to lift  below average offenses. What will this Thursday Night Football game provide the viewing audience? A reminder that if it wasn’t for gambling half of the NFL games are unwatchable.

Same Game Parlay based on the UNDER on the game total.

If you like an outcome then please use our NFL correlations betting database to do research and find the player prop bet that matches your game prediction.

Derek Carr

  • Team : New Orleans Saints
  • Position : Quarterback
  • Prop Bet : Passing Yards
  • Betting Line : 238.5 o(+100)

Derek Carr

  • Team : New Orleans Saints
  • Position : Quarterback
  • Prop Bet : Interception
  • Betting Line : 0.5 o(-109)

Travis Etienne

  • Team : Jacksonville Jaguars
  • Position : Running Back
  • Prop Bet : Rushing Yards
  • Betting Line : 63.5 o(-115)

Game Total

  • Team : Jaguars vs Saints
  • Position : NA
  • Prop Bet : Total UNDER
  • Betting Line : 40.0  o(-110) u(-110)

Straight Bets :

  • Derek Carr : Interceptions OVER 0.5 (-109) 
  • Derek Carr : Passing Yards OVER 238.5 (+100) 
  • Travis Etienne :  Rushing Yards Prop OVER 63.5 (-115)
  • Game Total : UNDER 40.5 (-110)

Correlation Bet : +1400

  • Derek Carr : Interceptions OVER 0.5 (-109) 
  • Derek Carr : Passing Yards OVER 238.5 (+100) 
  • Travis Etienne :  Rushing Yards Prop OVER 63.5 (-115)
  • Game Total : UNDER 40.5 (-110)

An important part of betting on props is getting a game script in mind. The most effective offensive player on the field will be Travis Etienne. I know that Trevor Lawrence is questionable but it really doesn’t matter much if he starts or not. The Jags will need to stick with Etienne and the short passing game if they are going to have a chance of winning this game. The good news for the Jags is the Saints offense is not that explosive. If the Saints defense doesn’t force turnovers, the Saints will not be able to score more than 17 points. The Jags can play it conservative and still pull out a win.

What I expect is the game to be low scoring with the Jags able to get a little lead behind the running and receiving of Etienne. That said, Derek Carr does produce some decent passing numbers late in the game when the Saints are behind. But, just like in Las Vegas. He is also interception prone when his team is behind.

On the game total. Some sportsbooks have 40.5 and I would take it if it becomes available for the same game parlay. If not then shop around for the straight bets AND shop around for your straight prop bets. There are a lot of different lines out there. Always have more than one sportsbook for line shopping…. always.

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NFL Week 7 Same Game Parlay & Prop Correlation Picks 2023 Sunday bets to be released later this week.

 


Sunday NFL Player Prop Bet Parlay

This Sunday I am going with all day action on a three player prop bet parlay. All three players are in a good match up to have a high upside. One of the bets, receiving yards for Rasheed Rice is an alternative line bet. This is a good way to up the return on a parlay. Look for players that when they go over, they go over by a lot. Or, are in a good position for a high scoring game and more touches than normal.

Brian Robinson

  • Team: Washington Commanders
  • Position: Running Back
  • Rushing Yards
  • Betting Line: 62.5 0(-125)

Rashee Rice

  • Team: Kansas City Chiefs
  • Position: Wide Receiver
  • Receiving Yards
  • Betting Line: 50+ (+155)

Jaylen Waddle

  • Team: Miami Dolphins
  • Position: Wide Receiver
  • Receiving Yards
  • Betting Line: 60.5 0(-129)

Straight Bets :

  • Brian Robinson Rushing Yards OVER 62.5(-125) 
  • Rasheed Rice Receiving Yards 50+ (-155)
  • Jaylen Waddle Receiving Yards OVER 60.5 (-120)

Correlation Bet : +698

  • Brian Robinson Rushing Yards OVER 62.5 Loser
  • Rasheed Rice Receiving Yards 50+ (-155) Winner
  • Jaylen Waddle Receiving Yards OVER 60.5 Winner

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Monday NFL Correlations Bets

San Francisco 49ers vs Minnesota Vikings

Monday Night Football will have the 49ers traveling to Minnesota to as 6.5 point favorites. Shop around because the line is moving to 7 at some sportsbooks.

The Vikings are one of the worst teams in the NFL at allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete passes. This is a good bounce back spot for Brock Purdy to get back on track. On the other side, the Minnesota Vikings live or die on the arm of Kirk Cousins. The 49ers defense will be able to control the line of scrimmage shutting down the Vikings run game early and force the Vikings to almost exclusively pass after the first quarter.

Kirk Cousins

  • Team: Minnesota Vikings
  • Position: Quarterback
  • Prop Bet: Passing Attempts
  • Betting Line: 36.5 o(-106)

Kirk Cousins

  • Team: Minnesota Vikings
  • Position: Quarterback
  • Prop Bet: Interceptions
  • Betting Line: 0.5 o(-135)

Brock Purdy

  • Team: San Francisco 49ers
  • Position: Quarterback
  • Prop Bet: Passing Attempts
  • Betting Line: 28.5 o(-121)

Alternative Spread Bet

  • Team: San Francisco 49ers
  • Position: Team
  • Prop Bet: 49ers -3.0
  • Betting Line: -3.0 (-224)

Straight Bets :

  • Kirk Cousins Completions Prop OVER -106
  • Kirk Cousins Interceptions Prop OVER -135
  • Brock Purdy Passing Attempts Prop OVER -121
  • 49ers -3.0 Point Spread -224

Correlation Bet : +850

  • Kirk Cousins Completions Prop OVER -106
  • Kirk Cousins Interceptions Prop OVER -135
  • Brock Purdy Passing Attempts Prop OVER -121
  • 49ers -3.0 Point Spread -224

 

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NFL Player Prop Bet Model

NFL player prop bet picks are based on our exclusive betting model with over 75,000 player prop bet results since the 2015 season.There are many ways to bet on players in the NFL. Bet on a quarterbacks passing yards or interceptions. A running backs rushing or receiving yards. Not only are there more props to bet on but there are also more players to bet on. In 2015 when we started collecting player prop bet results. There were just over 6,000 prop bet results for the regular season. Compare that with over 15,000 player prop bet results for the 2022 season. In 2015 only the primary running back had props on him. Many tight ends didn’t have props to wager on. This all changed as fantasy football took off and people migrated over to making real money NFL bets on players.

NFL Player Prop Bet Strategy – Bet the Under

Somethings have not changed over the years. There is still a built in advantage for betting the under on NFL player props. Most fans want to bet the over and the sportsbook managers will take advantage of this by shading the lines a little bit. If Patrick Mahomes should have a passing yards prop of 285.5 yards. The books will put out a 290.5. They know the fans will still want to bet the over. If you are in it for entertainment then make the bet. However, if you are in it for the money then take advantage of the 3% built in edge for under bets.

Note: Gambling should be entertaining. Please do not gamble more than you can afford to lose. If you are having problems controlling your gambling please contact the National Council on Problem Gambling.

NFL Prop Bet Predictions 2023 will based on our exclusive betting model with over 75,000 player prop bet results since the 2017 season.There are many ways to bet on players in the NFL. One thing most prop bettors do not look at is how have other players done against an opposing defense on the same prop. It is a vital part of our NFL player prop prediction model.

As always, shop around for the best odds. I have 3 US sportsbooks and 3 offshore sportsbooks. The odds below are the first out so look for better odds.