NFL Week 18 2024 Player Prop Bet & Correlation Picks

NFL Week 18 Same Game Parlay & Prop Correlation Picks 2024

Saturday NFL Prop Bet Picks

NFL Week 18 Same Game Parlay Predictions start off with a game in Indianapolis.

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts

The Colts still have a decent chance to make the playoffs but they will need to win to get in as a loss will end their season. The Texans also have a chance to get into the playoffs with a win. I like this scenario because both teams will be playing starters till the end and this makes the season correlations relevant.

The Texans have been one of the better teams at covering the 4th quarter spread this season. With both teams playing starters to the end. Stick with what they have shown in the previous 17 weeks of action.

Correlation bets are determined by the main bet which in this case is the Houston Texans 4th quarter spread of -0.5.

The Texans have covered the 4th quarter spread 11 times and failed to cover 5 times this season. The Colts have gone 8 and 8 on the 4th quarter spread. I like the way Houston plays out the game till the end. Even if the Texans start the 4th quarter down by double digits. All they need to do is cover the -0.5 spread.

Dameon Pierce has a nice if not strange correlation to the Texans covering the 4th quarter spread. When Pierce has had a rushing yards prop available and the Texans have covered the 4th quarter spread. He has gone over on his rushing yards prop one time and under six times.

Why fight the math?

CJ Stroud

  • Team: Houston Texans
  • Position: Quarterback
  • Prop Bet: Touchdown Passes
  • Betting Line: 1.5 o(-130)

Dameon Pierce

  • Team: Houston Texans
  • Position: Running Back
  • Prop Bet: Rushing Yards
  • Betting Line: 12.5 u(-110)

Texans 4th Quarter Spread

  • Team: Houston Texans
  • Position: Team
  • Bet: 4th Qtr Spread
  • Betting Line: -0.5. (+110)

Straight Bets :

  • CJ Stroud Passing Touchdown OVER 1.5 (-130)
  • Dameon Pierce Rushing Yards UNDER 12.5 (-110)
  • 4th QTR Spread Texans -0.5 (+110)

Correlation Bet : +650

  • CJ Stroud Passing Touchdown OVER 1.5 (-130)
  • Dameon Pierce Rushing Yards UNDER 12.5 (-110)
  • 4th QTR Spread Texans -0.5 (+110)

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Sunday NFL Player Prop Bet Parlay

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

High scoring game or will the defense show up today? The game is what I like at the end of the season. Both teams looking for the win so they can claim the AFC East Division title. Both teams playing their regulars.

What is the main bet for this game? A totals bet but not the one you are used to. This is based on the 2nd quarter total going over.

Correlation bets based on main bet which is the 2nd quarter combined total going over 15.5 points.

Combined 2nd Quarter Total Bet

Both teams have been at their best on offense in the second quarter this season. The Bills have gone over 9 times and under 6 with 1 push.

The Dolphins have gone over 12 times and under just 3 times in the second quarter when the passing attempts prop on Tua was offered. This is a combined total for both teams.

Tua Tagovailoa Prop Bet Correlations

This is going to be counter intuitive. That is a good thing in prop betting because it means the line wont be bet up. When the Dolphins games have gone over on the 2nd quarter total. Tua has gone over on his game passing attempts 2 times and under 10 times. Ya, that is one where the math will confound expectations.

When the 2nd quarter total has gone under. Tua has gone over all 3 times on his passing attempts prop. Again, I am betting on the math.

Stefon Diggs Prop Bet Correlations

This is not what you expect to see when a team covers a total, even if it is just a second quarter total. But, why fight the math? When the Bills games have gone over in the second quarter, Diggs has gone over on his receiving yards prop 1 time and under 8 times. Again, these are correlations based on this seasons results.

Tua Tagovailoa

  • Team: Miami Dolphins
  • Position: Quarter Backack
  • Prop : Passing Attempts
  • Betting Line: 34.5 (+100)

Stefon Diggs

  • Team: Buffalo Bills
  • Position : Wide Receiver
  • Prop : Receiving Yards
  • Betting Line: 61.5  (-120)

2nd Quarter Total

  • Team: Dolphins & Bills
  • Position : Team
  • Prop : 2nd Qtr Total
  • Betting Line: 15.5 (-110)

Straight Bets :

  • Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards UNDER 61.5 (-120)
  • Tua Tagovailoa Passing Attempts UNDER 34.5 (100)
  • 2nd Quarter Total OVER 15.0 (-110)

Correlation Bet : +700

  • Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards UNDER 61.5 (-120)
  • Tua Tagovailoa Passing Attempts UNDER 34.5 (100)
  • 2nd Quarter Total OVER 15.0 (-110)

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NFL Player Prop Bet Model

NFL player prop bet picks are based on our exclusive betting model with over 75,000 player prop bet results since the 2015 season.There are many ways to bet on players in the NFL. Bet on a quarterbacks passing yards or interceptions. A running backs rushing or receiving yards. Not only are there more props to bet on but there are also more players to bet on. In 2015 when we started collecting player prop bet results. There were just over 6,000 prop bet results for the regular season. Compare that with over 15,000 player prop bet results for the 2022 season. In 2015 only the primary running back had props on him. Many tight ends didn’t have props to wager on. This all changed as fantasy football took off and people migrated over to making real money NFL bets on players.

NFL Player Prop Bet Strategy – Bet the Under

Somethings have not changed over the years. There is still a built in advantage for betting the under on NFL player props. Most fans want to bet the over and the sportsbook managers will take advantage of this by shading the lines a little bit. If Patrick Mahomes should have a passing yards prop of 285.5 yards. The books will put out a 290.5. They know the fans will still want to bet the over. If you are in it for entertainment then make the bet. However, if you are in it for the money then take advantage of the 3% built in edge for under bets.

Note: Gambling should be entertaining. Please do not gamble more than you can afford to lose. If you are having problems controlling your gambling please contact the National Council on Problem Gambling.

NFL Prop Bet Predictions 2023 will based on our exclusive betting model with over 75,000 player prop bet results since the 2017 season.There are many ways to bet on players in the NFL. One thing most prop bettors do not look at is how have other players done against an opposing defense on the same prop. It is a vital part of our NFL player prop prediction model.

As always, shop around for the best odds. I have 3 US sportsbooks and 3 offshore sportsbooks. The odds below are the first out so look for better odds.

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