NFL Week 17 2023 Correlation Bets

NFL Week 17 Same Game Parlay & Prop Correlation Picks 2023

Saturday NFL Prop Bet Picks

NFL Week 17 Same Game Parlay Predictions for Week 17. Start off with a Saturday night game in Dallas.

Detroit Lions vs Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys are at home and that makes a big difference. For the Lions they are also a better team at home. No matter how good they look, the Lions on the road were crushed by the Ravens when they went to Baltimore. This game will not be that one sided but I am making my picks based on the Cowboys covering the point spread.

Correlation bets are determined by the main bet which in this case is the Dallas Cowboys -5.5 points.

Lets make this one a same game parlay by adding on two players that have had big seasons. Betting on both tight ends to score a touchdown in the game.

Jake Ferguson

  • Team: Dallas Cowboys
  • Position: Tight End
  • Prop Bet: Touchdown
  • Betting Line: 0.5+ (+130)

Sam LaPorta

  • Team: Detroit Lions
  • Position: Tight End
  • Prop Bet: Touchdown
  • Betting Line: 0.5+ (+180)

Game Spread

  • Team: Dallas Cowboys
  • Position: Team
  • Bet: Game Spread
  • Betting Line: -5.5. (-110)

Straight Bets :

  • Jake Ferguson to Score a Touchdown 0.5 (+130)
  • Sam LaPorta to Score a Touchdown 0.5 (+180)
  • Game Spread Cowboys -5.5 (-110)

Correlation Bet : +1200

  • Jake Ferguson to Score a Touchdown 0.5 (+130)
  • Sam LaPorta to Score a Touchdown 0.5 (+180)
  • Game Spread Cowboys -5.5 (-110)

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Sunday NFL Player Prop Bet Parlay

Miami Dolphins vs Baltimore Ravens

High scoring game or will the defense show up today? The weather will be good for offense with no rain and light winds. I know the Baltimore defense played great against the 49ers but these guys were ripped apart by the Rams two weeks ago. Last season when these two teams played Tagovailoa threw for 469 yards and six touchdowns as the Dolphins rallied from a 21-point fourth-quarter deficit to beat the Ravens 42-38.

Matthew Stafford threw for 294 yards and had 3 touchdowns without an interception. Baltimore can be passed on. Even the 49ers in a losing effort had Brandon Aiyuk go for 113 receiving yards.

Correlation bets based on main bet which is an alternate game total of over 50.0 points

Tyreek Hill Prop Bet Correlations

How do quarterbacks keep getting big numbers against the Ravens? How did Tua get over 400 passing yards against them last season? The Ravens safetys are not that good and they try and make up for it by gambling. It works out most of the time but when it goes wrong it is another big play. Hill will get at least one long play if not two.

When Dolphins games go over the game total. Tyreek Hill has gone over on his receiving yards prop 6 times and under 2 times.

Lamar Jackson Prop Bet Correlations

When the Ravens games have gone over the total. It is not his rushing yards that correlate the most but his passing yards.

When the Ravens games have gone over the total. Lamar has gone over on his passing yards prop 6 times and under 1 time.

Game Total Bet – Alternate Totals Bet

The game should have both teams scoring 24+ points so I really like the total more than any other bet. Both teams have the speed to break big plays.

Tyreek Hill

  • Team: Miami Dolphins
  • Position: Wide Receiver
  • Prop : Receiving Yards
  • Betting Line: 94.5 (-117)

Lamar Jackson

  • Team: Baltimore Ravens
  • Position : Quarterback
  • Prop : Passing Yards 231.5
  • Betting Line: 231.5  (-103)

Game Total

  • Team: Dolphins & Ravens
  • Position : Team
  • Prop : Game Total
  • Betting Line: 50.0 (+129)

Straight Bets :

  • Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards OVER 94.5 (-117)
  • Lamar Jackson Passing Yards OVER 231.5 (-103)
  • Game Total Alternate Line OVER 50.0 (+129)

Correlation Bet : +458

  • Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards OVER 94.5 (-117)
  • Lamar Jackson Passing Yards OVER 231.5 (-103)
  • Game Total Alternate Line OVER 50.0 (+129)

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NFL Player Prop Bet Model

NFL player prop bet picks are based on our exclusive betting model with over 75,000 player prop bet results since the 2015 season.There are many ways to bet on players in the NFL. Bet on a quarterbacks passing yards or interceptions. A running backs rushing or receiving yards. Not only are there more props to bet on but there are also more players to bet on. In 2015 when we started collecting player prop bet results. There were just over 6,000 prop bet results for the regular season. Compare that with over 15,000 player prop bet results for the 2022 season. In 2015 only the primary running back had props on him. Many tight ends didn’t have props to wager on. This all changed as fantasy football took off and people migrated over to making real money NFL bets on players.

NFL Player Prop Bet Strategy – Bet the Under

Somethings have not changed over the years. There is still a built in advantage for betting the under on NFL player props. Most fans want to bet the over and the sportsbook managers will take advantage of this by shading the lines a little bit. If Patrick Mahomes should have a passing yards prop of 285.5 yards. The books will put out a 290.5. They know the fans will still want to bet the over. If you are in it for entertainment then make the bet. However, if you are in it for the money then take advantage of the 3% built in edge for under bets.

Note: Gambling should be entertaining. Please do not gamble more than you can afford to lose. If you are having problems controlling your gambling please contact the National Council on Problem Gambling.

NFL Prop Bet Predictions 2023 will based on our exclusive betting model with over 75,000 player prop bet results since the 2017 season.There are many ways to bet on players in the NFL. One thing most prop bettors do not look at is how have other players done against an opposing defense on the same prop. It is a vital part of our NFL player prop prediction model.

As always, shop around for the best odds. I have 3 US sportsbooks and 3 offshore sportsbooks. The odds below are the first out so look for better odds.

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