NFL Week 16 Same Game Parlay & Prop Correlation Picks 2023


Saturday NFL Prop Bet Picks

Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers have quit. Some players might still be playing hard but the overall look of the team against the Raiders was the season is over. The Bills are in playoff mode and this is a good time for them to play against a team that has quit. Not looking for a close game that is worth watching unless you have money on the game. I do.

Correlation bets are determined by the main bet which in this case is the Buffalo Bills -12.5 points.

This may seam counter intuitive but Josh Allen has a nice under bet when the Bills cover the spread. In 2023 when the Bills cover the spread, Josh Allen has gone over on his rushing yards prop bet 1 time and under 5 times. Why run Josh when you have a lead?

So who gets the carries when the Bills cover the spread? James Cook. When the Bills cover the game point spread, he has gone over on his rushing yards prop 5 times and under just 1 time.

This is what I mean by correlation. The math aligns with an outcome and a narrative can be ascribed to the outcome.

The Bills are winning big so Josh will just hand off to Cook and use play action passing to grind up the Chargers defense.

Josh Allen

  • Team: Buffalo Bills
  • Position: Quarterback
  • Prop Bet: Rushing Yards
  • Betting Line: 29.5- (-115) 

James Cook

  • Team: Buffalo Bills
  • Position: Running Back
  • Prop Bet: Rushing yards
  • Betting Line: 68.5+ (-115)

Game Spread

  • Team: Buffalo Bills
  • Position: Team
  • Bet: Game Spread
  • Betting Line: -12.5. (-110)

Straight Bets :

  • Josh Allen Rushing Yards UNDER 29.5 (-115)
  • Jame Cook Rushing Yards OVER 69.5 (-115)
  • Game Spread Bills -12.5 (-110)

Correlation Bet : +575

  • Josh Allen Rushing Yards UNDER 29.5 (-115)
  • Jame Cook Rushing Yards OVER 69.5 (-115)
  • Game Spread Bills -12.5 (-110)

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Sunday NFL Player Prop Bet Parlay

Dallas Cowboys vs Miami Dolphins

Start with the expected outcome. The total is sitting at 50 points and that is too high for this game. I know people like scoring but this game should be a very close game that ends up in the mid 40s for a game point total.

Correlation bet based on main bet which is a game total under 50.0 points

CeeDee Lamb Prop Bet Correlations

How does Lamb do when the Cowboys games go under on the game total? Look no further than his receptions prop. When the Cowboys games go under the total, he has gone over 1 time and under 4 times. Compare this to when the Cowboys games go over the total. Over on this prop 5 times and under 3 times.

Tua Tagovailoa Prop Bet Correlations

Tua has some strong prop bet correlations based on the Dolphins going over or under the total. Overall, he has gone over 3 times and under 10 times on his passing attempts prop. When the Dolphins do not go over the total, he has gone over 0 times and under 5 times. Nice correlation.

Game Total Bet

Bet the under? Yes, both offensive lines are beat up. Neither quarterback will have a lot of time to throw the ball. Both teams will be trying to get a lead by running the ball to make play action passing available later in the game. If you are looking to add more props on then look at Mossert and the over on his combined receiving yards and rushing yards prop. I didn’t add him on to this prop bet but when the game total goes under. Mossert has gone over on his combined rushing and receiving yards prop 4 times and under 2 times. Not enough for me to add it on but it is close enough to consider.

CeeDee Lamb

  • Team: Dallas Cowboys
  • Position: Wide Receiver
  • Prop : Receptions
  • Betting Line: 7.5- (-135)

Tua Tagovailoa

  • Team: Miami Dolphins
  • Position : Quarterback
  • Prop : Passing Attempts
  • Betting Line: 33.5- (-115)

Game Total

  • Team: Dolphins Cowboys
  • Position : Team
  • Prop : Game Total
  • Betting Line: 50.0 (-110)

Straight Bets :

  • CeeDee Lamb Receptions UNDER 7.5 (-135)
  • Tua Tagolaivoa Passing Attempts UNDER  33.5 (-115)
  • Game Total UNDER 50.0 (-110)

Correlation Bet : +420

  • CeeDee Lamb Receptions UNDER 7.5 (-135)
  • Tua Tagolaivoa Passing Attempts UNDER  33.5 (-115)
  • Game Total UNDER 50.0 (-110)

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Monday NFL Correlations Bets

Baltimore Ravens vs San Francisco 49ers

Super Bowl preview?

The 49ers might well win this game. However, I have the game coming down to the last series and most likely decided by a field goal or less. I am taking the Ravens as long as I can get +4 points or more.

Correlation bets based on the Ravens covering the 5.5 game point spread.

These are two of the best teams in the NFL and look for a physical and close game that will be a lot of fun to watch. Big hits and defense are going to dominate the game.

These two player props will appear not to go together but the math is what I am betting on.

When the San Francisco 49ers Lose Against the Spread

Brandon Aiyuk has gone over on his receiving yards prop 4 times and under 1 time. However, when the 49ers has lost against the spread, Brock Purdy has gone over on his passing yards prop 3 times and under 1 time. Yes, for Purdy to under and Aiyuk to go over does seem less probable. That is why it gets a nice return but the math favors this bet.

Brock Purdy

  • Team: San Francisco 49ers
  • Position: Quarterback
  • Prop Bet: Passing Yards
  • Betting Line: 252.5 (-115)

Brandon Aiyuk

  • Team: San Francisco 49ers
  • Position: Wide Receiver
  • Prop Bet: Receiving Yards
  • Betting Line: 63.5 o(-115)

Game Spread

  • Team: Baltimore Ravens
  • Position: Team
  • Prop Bet: Game Spread
  • Betting Line: +5.5 (-110)

Straight Bets :

  • Brock Purdy Passing Yards Prop UNDER 252.5
  • Brandon Aiyuk Receiving Yards Prop OVER 63.5
  • Game Spread Ravens +5.5 (-110)

Correlation Bet : +750

  • Brock Purdy Passing Yards Prop UNDER 252.5
  • Brandon Aiyuk Receiving Yards Prop OVER 63.5
  • Game Spread Ravens +5.5 (-110)

 

NFL Prop Bet Picks 2023 Week 16

Thursday Night Football Correlation Bets

New Orleans Saints vs Los Angeles Rams

Correlation bets are made off of one primary game bet and then adding in prop bets that correlate to the outcome.

Primary bet : Saints vs Rams OVER 45.0 points.

The Rams have been winning games with offense recently. Scoring at least 28 points in the last 4 games. The Saints have put up at least 24 points in the last 3 games. When points are going to be scored by these two teams the first place to look for a prop bet is with the quarterbacks.

There is a good correlation between the game going over/under and Matthew Stafford passing yards. When the Rams game total has gone over he has gone over 4 times and under 2 times. When Rams games have gone under the total he has gone over on his passing yards prop 2 times and under 5 times.

He might not be listed as a quarterback but Taysom Hill has a good correlation with the total. When Saints games have gone over the total he has gone over on his rushing yards prop 3 times and under 1 time. When Saints games go under the total he has gone over on his rushing yards prop 3 times and under 5 times.

Kyren Williams is another player to add to the correlated bet. When the Rams games have gone over the total he has gone over on his combined rushing and receiving yards prop 5 times and under 0 times.

 

If you haven’t checked out Bovada lately. The site has upgraded the player prop selection and is a viable second book to have when line shopping.

 

 

Matthew Stafford

  • Team : Las Angels Rams
  • Position : Quarterback
  • Prop Bet : Passing Yards
  • Betting Line : 249.5+ (-115)

Taysom Hill

  • Team : New Orleans Saints
  • Position : Quarterback
  • Prop Bet : Rushing Yards
  • Betting Line : 16.5 (-115)

Kyren Williams

  • Team : Los Angeles Rams
  • Position : Running Back
  • Prop Bet : Combined Rush & Rec Yards
  • Betting Line : 115.5 (-115)

Game Total

  • Team : Both
  • Position : Total
  • Prop Bet : Game Total OVER
  • Betting Line : 45.0 (-110)

Straight Bets :

  • Matthew Stafford : Passing Yards OVER 249.5 (-115) WIN
  • Taysom Hill : Rushing Yards OVER 16.5 (-115) LOSS
  • Kyren Williams : Combined Rush & Rec OVER 115.5 (-115) LOSS
  • Game Total : OVER 45.0 (-110) WIN

Correlation Bet : +800 LOSS

  • Matthew Stafford : Passing Yards OVER 249.5 (-115) WIN
  • Taysom Hill : Rushing Yards OVER 16.5 (-115) LOSS
  • Kyren Williams : Combined Rush & Rec OVER 115.5 (-115) LOSS
  • Game Total : OVER 45.0 (-110) WIN

Two right and two wrong. Another reminder why I also straight bet these props. An overall loss but by straight betting the loss is manageable.

Bet BOTH the straight bets and the correlation bets if you are trying to make sports betting a part time or full time job. If you are just looking for a little entertainment then placing a small bet on the same game parlay can be fun. I do both. A majority of my money is on straight bets but I also put down a little on the Same Game Parlay.

If you want to understand why and how much of a correlation there is. Please read my article

 

NFL Same Game Parlay & Player Prop Bet Correlations & Strategy

 

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NFL Player Prop Bet Model

NFL player prop bet picks are based on our exclusive betting model with over 75,000 player prop bet results since the 2015 season.There are many ways to bet on players in the NFL. Bet on a quarterbacks passing yards or interceptions. A running backs rushing or receiving yards. Not only are there more props to bet on but there are also more players to bet on. In 2015 when we started collecting player prop bet results. There were just over 6,000 prop bet results for the regular season. Compare that with over 15,000 player prop bet results for the 2022 season. In 2015 only the primary running back had props on him. Many tight ends didn’t have props to wager on. This all changed as fantasy football took off and people migrated over to making real money NFL bets on players.

NFL Player Prop Bet Strategy – Bet the Under

Somethings have not changed over the years. There is still a built in advantage for betting the under on NFL player props. Most fans want to bet the over and the sportsbook managers will take advantage of this by shading the lines a little bit. If Patrick Mahomes should have a passing yards prop of 285.5 yards. The books will put out a 290.5. They know the fans will still want to bet the over. If you are in it for entertainment then make the bet. However, if you are in it for the money then take advantage of the 3% built in edge for under bets.

Note: Gambling should be entertaining. Please do not gamble more than you can afford to lose. If you are having problems controlling your gambling please contact the National Council on Problem Gambling.

NFL Prop Bet Predictions 2023 will based on our exclusive betting model with over 75,000 player prop bet results since the 2017 season.There are many ways to bet on players in the NFL. One thing most prop bettors do not look at is how have other players done against an opposing defense on the same prop. It is a vital part of our NFL player prop prediction model.

As always, shop around for the best odds. I have 3 US sportsbooks and 3 offshore sportsbooks. The odds below are the first out so look for better odds.