NFL Week 15 Prop Bets 2023

NFL Week 15 Same Game Parlay & Prop Correlation Picks 2023


Sunday NFL Player Prop Bet Parlay

Dallas Cowboys vs Buffalo Bills

The biggest game of the day is in Buffalo, with the Cowboys chasing the Eagles for the top spot in the NFC East. The Bills are in trouble and need to win to have a real chance at the playoffs.

The weather is going to be decent for this time of the year. Yes, a steady rain but the wind will be below 10mph at kickoff and that should mean the passing game is in play.

The bets below are correlation bets. They are the outcomes that align with my game betting pick which is the Bills -2 against the spread.

Dak Prescott Prop Bet Correlations

When the Cowboys have lost against the spread. Dak has gone over on his passing yards prop 3 times and under 1 time. He covered the prop line by; 15.5, 115.5 and, 17.5 passing yards.

If you like the Cowboys to cover then adding Dak on your prop bet isn’t a bad choice. When the Cowboys have covered the spread, Dak has gone over 6 times and under 3 times.

As you can see, betting on Dak to go over on passing yards has been a money maker this season.

Dalton Kincaid Prop Bet Correlations

For Dalton Kincaid I am taking the over on his reception yards prop. This season he has gone over 4 times and under 1 time when the Bills cover the point spread. A nice correlation. However, if you like the Cowboys to cover the spread. Dalton Kincaid has also gone over 4 times and under 1 time when the Bills lose against the spread. So, just like Dak you have a chance to use these correlations if you like the Cowboys to cover the spread.

Dak Prescott

  • Team: Dallas Cowboys
  • Position: Quarterback
  • Prop : Passing Yards
  • Betting Line: 269.5+ (-115)

Dalton Kincaid

  • Team: Buffalo Bills
  • Position : Tight End
  • Prop : Receptions
  • Betting Line: 4.5+ (-125)

Buffalo Bills

  • Team: Buffalo Bills
  • Position : Team
  • Prop : Game Spread
  • Betting Line: -2.0 (-110)

Straight Bets :

  • Dak Prescott Passing Yards : OVER 269.5 (-115)
  • Dalton Kincaid Receptions : OVER 4.5 (-125)
  • Buffalo Bills Game Spread : WIN -2.0 (-110)

Correlation Bet : +600

  • Dak Prescott Passing Yards : OVER 269.5
  • Dalton Kincaid Receptions : OVER 4.5
  • Buffalo Bills Game Spread : WIN -2.0

 

Dallas Cowboy Correlation Bet +480

If you make the same bets but take the Cowboys on the spread you will not make as much money.

Correlation Bet : +480

  • Dak Prescott Passing Yards : OVER 269.5
  • Dalton Kincaid Receptions : OVER 4.5
  • Dallas Cowboys Game Spread : WIN +2.0

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NFL Prop Bet Picks 2023 Week 14

Thursday Night Football Correlation Bets

Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders

Easton Stick?

He has been with the Chargers long enough to know the offense so the full playbook should be available to him. However, the Chargers lack of a running game puts him in a bad position. Add to that, no Keenan Allen to be a safety valve taking in short passes and this will be a long night for Stick. He does have one good thing going for him tonight. He is facing one of the worst teams in the NFL so there won’t be the pressure on him to score a lot of points.

Aidan O’Connell will be the Raiders quarterback tonight. Not much confidence in him to do more than he did last week against the Vikings. He has gone 200 passing yards in 2 of his 5 starts.

I know some will look at this as something that should not be considered but I will add it into my process for betting. I do not think both quarterbacks will complete this game. Not just because of injury but also because of non performance. Desperate teams will have a quick hook in the second half for either quarterback if he is not performing.

I will not be watching this game. I can’t. This game might produce a few big plays but overall this should be a game of mistakes. My money is going on unders and special teams wagers.

If you haven’t checked out Bovada lately. The site has upgraded the player prop selection and is a viable second book to have when line shopping.

 

 

Daniel Carson

  • Team : Las Vegas Raiders
  • Position : Kicker
  • Prop Bet :Field Goals
  • Betting Line : 1.5+ (-135)

Easton Stick

  • Team : Los Angeles Chargers
  • Position : Quarterback
  • Prop Bet : Passing Yards
  • Betting Line : 188.5 (-105)

Aidan O’Connell

  • Team : Las Vegas Raiders
  • Position : Quarterback
  • Prop Bet : Passing Yards
  • Betting Line : 198.5 (-115)

Straight Bets :

  • Daniel Carlson: Field Goals 1.5+ (-135) 
  • Easton Stick : Passing Yards UNDER 188.5 (-105) 
  • Aidan O’Connell : Passing Yards UNDER 195.5 (-115)

Correlation Bet : +415

  • Daniel Carlson: Field Goals 1.5+ (-135) 
  • Easton Stick : Passing Yards UNDER 188.5 (-105) 
  • Aidan O’Connell : Passing Yards UNDER 195.5 (-115)

Bet BOTH the straight bets and the correlation bets if you are trying to make sports betting a part time or full time job. If you are just looking for a little entertainment then placing a small bet on the same game parlay can be fun. I do both. A majority of my money is on straight bets but I also put down a little on the Same Game Parlay.

If you want to understand why and how much of a correlation there is. Please read my article

 

NFL Same Game Parlay & Player Prop Bet Correlations & Strategy

 

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NFL Player Prop Bet Model

NFL player prop bet picks are based on our exclusive betting model with over 75,000 player prop bet results since the 2015 season.There are many ways to bet on players in the NFL. Bet on a quarterbacks passing yards or interceptions. A running backs rushing or receiving yards. Not only are there more props to bet on but there are also more players to bet on. In 2015 when we started collecting player prop bet results. There were just over 6,000 prop bet results for the regular season. Compare that with over 15,000 player prop bet results for the 2022 season. In 2015 only the primary running back had props on him. Many tight ends didn’t have props to wager on. This all changed as fantasy football took off and people migrated over to making real money NFL bets on players.

NFL Player Prop Bet Strategy – Bet the Under

Somethings have not changed over the years. There is still a built in advantage for betting the under on NFL player props. Most fans want to bet the over and the sportsbook managers will take advantage of this by shading the lines a little bit. If Patrick Mahomes should have a passing yards prop of 285.5 yards. The books will put out a 290.5. They know the fans will still want to bet the over. If you are in it for entertainment then make the bet. However, if you are in it for the money then take advantage of the 3% built in edge for under bets.

Note: Gambling should be entertaining. Please do not gamble more than you can afford to lose. If you are having problems controlling your gambling please contact the National Council on Problem Gambling.

NFL Prop Bet Predictions 2023 will based on our exclusive betting model with over 75,000 player prop bet results since the 2017 season.There are many ways to bet on players in the NFL. One thing most prop bettors do not look at is how have other players done against an opposing defense on the same prop. It is a vital part of our NFL player prop prediction model.

As always, shop around for the best odds. I have 3 US sportsbooks and 3 offshore sportsbooks. The odds below are the first out so look for better odds.