NFL Prop Bet Predictions 2023 Week 14

NFL Week 14 Same Game Parlay & Prop Correlation Picks 2023


Sunday Night NFL Player Prop Bet Parlay

Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys

The Eagles whipped the Cowboys last time they played but the Cowboys are favored at home in this game.

What has changed? The Eagles pass defense has been exploited week after week. The Cowboys will need to pass to win this game and this fits into a three event same game parlay.

Jalen Hurts has been a touchdown machine but now he gets his tight end Dallas Goedert back. Dallas will be an alternative to Jalen inside of the 20 yard line. If the Eagles are inside the three yard line it is still Hurts but in the 5 to 20 yard red zone area. Dallas will get his targets.

Dak Prescott

  • Team: Dallas Cowboys
  • Position: Quarterback
  • Passing Yards
  • Betting Line: 300.5 o(-115)

Jake Ferguson

  • Team: Detroit Lions
  • Position: Quarterback Back
  • Receiving Yards
  • Betting Line: 43.5 o(-117)

Dallas Goedert

  • Team: Philadelphia Eagles
  • Position: Tight End
  • Anytime Touchdown
  • Betting Line: 0.5+ (+300)

Straight Bets :

  • Dallas Goedert Anytime Touchdown (+300)
  • Dak Prescott Passing Yards OVER 300.5 (-117)
  • Jake Furgeson Receiving Yards OVER 43.5 (-115)

Same Game Parlay : +1000

  • Dallas Goedert Anytime Touchdown (+300)
  • Dak Prescott Passing Yards OVER 300.5 (-117)
  • Jake Furgeson Receiving Yards OVER 43.5 (-115)

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NFL Prop Bet Picks 2023 Week 14

Thursday Night Football Correlation Bets

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots

Billy Zappe vs Mitch Trubisky?

I will not be watching this game. I can’t. This game might produce a few big plays but overall this should be a game of mistakes. My money is going on special teams wagers. I like both kickers to have good games with field goals being the primary scoring of both teams.

Checked the weather and the wind should not be a factor for the kickers.

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Chris Boswell

  • Team : Pittsburgh Steelers
  • Position : Kicker
  • Prop Bet : Kicking Points
  • Betting Line : 6.5+ (-133)

Chad Ryland

  • Team : New England Patriots
  • Position : Kicker
  • Prop Bet : Kicking Points
  • Betting Line : 4.5+ (-106)

Straight Bets :

  • Chris Boswell : Kicking Points 6.5+ (-133) 
  • Chad Ryland : Kicking Points 4.5+ (-106) 

Correlation Bet : +300

  • Chris Boswell : Kicking Points 6.5+ (-133) 
  • Chad Ryland : Kicking Points 4.5+ (-106) 

Bet BOTH the straight bets and the correlation bets if you are trying to make sports betting a part time or full time job. If you are just looking for a little entertainment then placing a small bet on the same game parlay can be fun. I do both. A majority of my money is on straight bets but I also put down a little on the Same Game Parlay.

If you want to understand why and how much of a correlation there is. Please read my article

 

NFL Same Game Parlay & Player Prop Bet Correlations & Strategy

 

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Sunday NFL Player Prop Bet Parlay

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears

Justin Fields has a good opportunity for a big game today against the Lions. The Lions are last in the NFL for giving up rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks. The Bears can run the ball and control the clock against the Lions.

Justin Fields

  • Team: Chicago Bears
  • Position: Quarterback
  • Rushing Yards
  • Betting Line: 70+ (+100)

Justin Fields

  • Team: Chicago Bears
  • Position: Quarterback
  • Anytime Touchdown
  • Betting Line: 0.5+ (+165)

Straight Bets :

  • Justin Fields Rushing Yards : OVER 70 +100
  • Justin Fields Anytime Touchdown : OVER 0.5 +165

Correlation Bet : +305

  • Justin Fields Rushing Yards : OVER 70
  • Justin Fields Anytime Touchdown : OVER 0.5

Los Angeles Rams vs Baltimore Ravens

Another quarterback bet. The weather in Baltimore should be rainy with some wind. Why throw the ball when you can just run it 40+ times and win? Get ready for a lot of Lamar Jackson and Gus Edwards. You can add Edwards to your bet if you like but my model has Jackson as the man today.

Lamar Jackson

  • Team: Baltimore Ravens
  • Position: Quarterback
  • Prop Bet: Rushing Yards
  • Betting Line: 70+ (230) 

Lamar Jackson

  • Team: Baltimore Ravens
  • Position: Quarterback
  • Prop Bet: Anytime Touchdwon
  • Betting Line: 0.5+ (+125)

1st Half Spread

  • Team: Baltimore Ravens
  • Position: Team
  • Spread
  • Betting Line: -4.5. (+100)

Straight Bets :

  • Lamar Jackson Rushing Yards OVER 15.5 (-115)
  • Lamar Jackson Anytime Touchdown (+125)
  • 1st Half Spread Ravens -4.5 (+100)

Correlation Bet : +675

  • Lamar Jackson Rushing Yards OVER 15.5 (-115)
  • Lamar Jackson Anytime Touchdown (+125)
  • 1st Half Spread Ravens -4.5 (+100)

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NFL Player Prop Bet Model

NFL player prop bet picks are based on our exclusive betting model with over 75,000 player prop bet results since the 2015 season.There are many ways to bet on players in the NFL. Bet on a quarterbacks passing yards or interceptions. A running backs rushing or receiving yards. Not only are there more props to bet on but there are also more players to bet on. In 2015 when we started collecting player prop bet results. There were just over 6,000 prop bet results for the regular season. Compare that with over 15,000 player prop bet results for the 2022 season. In 2015 only the primary running back had props on him. Many tight ends didn’t have props to wager on. This all changed as fantasy football took off and people migrated over to making real money NFL bets on players.

NFL Player Prop Bet Strategy – Bet the Under

Somethings have not changed over the years. There is still a built in advantage for betting the under on NFL player props. Most fans want to bet the over and the sportsbook managers will take advantage of this by shading the lines a little bit. If Patrick Mahomes should have a passing yards prop of 285.5 yards. The books will put out a 290.5. They know the fans will still want to bet the over. If you are in it for entertainment then make the bet. However, if you are in it for the money then take advantage of the 3% built in edge for under bets.

Note: Gambling should be entertaining. Please do not gamble more than you can afford to lose. If you are having problems controlling your gambling please contact the National Council on Problem Gambling.

NFL Prop Bet Predictions 2023 will based on our exclusive betting model with over 75,000 player prop bet results since the 2017 season.There are many ways to bet on players in the NFL. One thing most prop bettors do not look at is how have other players done against an opposing defense on the same prop. It is a vital part of our NFL player prop prediction model.

As always, shop around for the best odds. I have 3 US sportsbooks and 3 offshore sportsbooks. The odds below are the first out so look for better odds.