NFL Prop Bet Predictions Week 13 2023

NFL Week 13 Same Game Parlay & Prop Correlation Picks 2023

NFL Prop Bet Picks 2023 Week 13

Thursday Night Football Correlation Bets

Dallas Cowboys vs Seattle Seahawks

Same Game Parlay based on the Cowboys covering.

When the Cowboys win, they win big. Most of the Cowboys damage has been against teams with below .500 records and the Seahawks have a winning record at 6-5. However, this game is a good matchup for the Cowboys

Dak will have the time to throw against the Seahawks and the red zone offense should get a good workout tonight. Jake Ferguson had three straight games with a touchdown before the last two games. He should get 6+ targets with 2+ in the red zone. Betting on him to score a touchdown and go over on his receiving yards prop. The 35.5 yards is as high as I would go so if the line moves above either take an alt line or lay off the bet.

What is wrong with Pollard this season? He isn’t dominating like a number one back should. He has gone 50+ rushing yards the five games and Thursday Night should be no different. The hard part about betting on Pollard is that he is such a good receiver that sometimes the Cowboys use the short pass like a rushing play. That works out well for the offense but if you bet on him to go over on rushing yards it can be a little frustrating. As a rule, when a running back is a good runner and receiver I like to bet the combined yardage prop. If he pops he a short pass or a run for a long gain then I capture whichever one it is on my bet.

The last bet is an alternative spread bet. I have the Cowboys at -10 points. Not a big difference and at +101 is is worth the risk.

Important note on the alt line. If you are betting at ESPN Bet then if the Cowboys win by 10 your whole bet will be a push instead of winning on three legs. Recommendation is that only use ESPN BET for straight prop bets if it has a good number but use other sportsbooks for same game parlays.

If you haven’t checked out Bovada lately. The site has upgraded the player prop selection and is a viable second book to have when line shopping.

 

 

Jake Ferguson

  • Team : Dallas Cowboys
  • Position : Tight End
  • Prop Bet : Anytime Touchdown
  • Betting Line : 0.5+ (+130)

Jake Ferguson

  • Team : Dallas Cowboys
  • Position : Tight End
  • Prop Bet : Receiving Yards
  • Betting Line : 35.5+ (-115)

Tony Pollard

  • Team : Dallas Cowboys
  • Position : Running Back
  • Prop Bet : Rushing & Receiving Yards
  • Betting Line : 87.5+ (-115)

Game Spread

  • Team : Cowboys
  • Position : Team
  • Prop Bet : Alternate Line
  • Betting Line : -10.0 (+101)

Straight Bets :

  • Jake Ferguson: Anytime Touchdown 0.5+ (+130) WIN
  • Jake Ferguson: Receiving Yards 35.5+ (-115) WIN
  • Tony Pollard : Combined Yards 87.5+ (-115) LOSS
  • Cowboys Alternate Spread : -10.0 (+101) LOSS

Correlation Bet : +900

  • Jake Ferguson: Anytime Touchdown 0.5+ (+130)
  • Jake Ferguson: Receiving Yards 35.5+ (-115)
  • Tony Pollard : Combined Yards 87.5+ (-115)
  • Cowboys Alternate Spread : -10.0 (+101)

Bet BOTH the straight bets and the correlation bets if you are trying to make sports betting a part time or full time job. If you are just looking for a little entertainment then placing a small bet on the same game parlay can be fun. I do both. A majority of my money is on straight bets but I also put down a little on the Same Game Parlay.

If you want to understand why and how much of a correlation there is. Please read my article

 

NFL Same Game Parlay & Player Prop Bet Correlations & Strategy

 

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Sunday NFL Player Prop Bet Parlay

Detroit Lions vs New Orleans Saints

The Lions on the road? If they are in a dome it is like a home game for this offense. The Saints? This team is 5-6 and not going anywhere this season. Absolutely no consistency on offense for New Orleans this season.

The Lions can come out strong passing the ball against the Saints and then lean on the run later in the game with a double digit lead. For betting Goff has been targeting Amon-Ra St. Brown 9+ times a game over the last 6 games. Should be another double digit game in targets with 7+ receptions. The yardage prop is still to low for this guy so eat it up while you can.

Who else has been getting targets recently? Sam Laporta, the rookie tight end. He has 5+ targets in the last 6 games. Not as many yards as you would like but he is getting consistent targets. That should translate into more yards and touchdown opportunities.

Sam LaPorta

  • Team: Detroit Lions
  • Position: Tight End
  • Receiving Yards
  • Betting Line: 40.5 0(-115)

Sam LaPorta

  • Team: Detroit Lions
  • Position: Tight End
  • Anytime Touchdown
  • Betting Line: 0.5+ (+220)

Amon-Ra St. Brown

  • Team: Detroit Lions
  • Position: Wide Receiver
  • Receiving Yards
  • Betting Line: 81.5 (-117)

Amon-Ra St. Brown

  • Team: Detroit Lions
  • Position: Wide Receiver
  • Anytime Touchdown
  • Betting Line: 0.5+ (+105)

Straight Bets :

  • Sam LaPorta Reciving Yards : OVER 40.5
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards : OVER 81.5
  • Sam LaPorta Anytime Touchdown : OVER 0.5
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime Touchdown : OVER 0.5

Correlation Bet : +1700

  • Sam LaPorta Reciving Yards : OVER 40.5
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards : OVER 81.5
  • Sam LaPorta Anytime Touchdown : OVER 0.5
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime Touchdown : OVER 0.5

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NFL Player Prop Bet Model

NFL player prop bet picks are based on our exclusive betting model with over 75,000 player prop bet results since the 2015 season.There are many ways to bet on players in the NFL. Bet on a quarterbacks passing yards or interceptions. A running backs rushing or receiving yards. Not only are there more props to bet on but there are also more players to bet on. In 2015 when we started collecting player prop bet results. There were just over 6,000 prop bet results for the regular season. Compare that with over 15,000 player prop bet results for the 2022 season. In 2015 only the primary running back had props on him. Many tight ends didn’t have props to wager on. This all changed as fantasy football took off and people migrated over to making real money NFL bets on players.

NFL Player Prop Bet Strategy – Bet the Under

Somethings have not changed over the years. There is still a built in advantage for betting the under on NFL player props. Most fans want to bet the over and the sportsbook managers will take advantage of this by shading the lines a little bit. If Patrick Mahomes should have a passing yards prop of 285.5 yards. The books will put out a 290.5. They know the fans will still want to bet the over. If you are in it for entertainment then make the bet. However, if you are in it for the money then take advantage of the 3% built in edge for under bets.

Note: Gambling should be entertaining. Please do not gamble more than you can afford to lose. If you are having problems controlling your gambling please contact the National Council on Problem Gambling.

NFL Prop Bet Predictions 2023 will based on our exclusive betting model with over 75,000 player prop bet results since the 2017 season.There are many ways to bet on players in the NFL. One thing most prop bettors do not look at is how have other players done against an opposing defense on the same prop. It is a vital part of our NFL player prop prediction model.

As always, shop around for the best odds. I have 3 US sportsbooks and 3 offshore sportsbooks. The odds below are the first out so look for better odds.