NFL Thanksgiving Day Game Prop Bet Picks

NFL Week 12 Same Game Parlay & Prop Correlation Picks 2023


Thanksgiving NFL Player Prop Bet Parlay

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions

The Lions are heavy favorites at home and I am on them to cover. In fact, I have the the alternative spread as one of my bets.

Sam Laporta is getting plenty of targets with 69 so far this season. He has 50 receptions for 492 yards and 4 touchdowns. Those touchdowns are what interest me. All have been scored at home and in games where the Lions have won by double digits.

Jared Goff had an off week against the Bears throwing for three interceptions. I do not expect him to have back to back bad games. The line is set at 253.5 yards. He has gone over that total in four of the previous five weeks.

Sam Laporta

  • Team: Detroit Lions
  • Position: Tight End
  • Touchdowns
  • Betting Line: 0.5 o(-145)

Jared Goff

  • Team: Detroit Lions
  • Position: Quarterback Back
  • Passing Yards
  • Betting Line: 253.5 o(-117)

Game Spread

  • Team: Lions
  • Position: Team
  • Alternative Spread
  • Betting Line: Lions -9.5. (+100)

Straight Bets :

  • Sam Laporta Anytime Touchdown (+145)
  • Jared Goff Passing Yards OVER 253.5 (-117)
  • Alternative Spread Lions -9.5 (+100)

Same Game Parlay : +650

  • Sam Laporta Anytime Touchdown (+145)
  • Jared Goff Passing Yards OVER 253.5 (-117)
  • Alternative Spread Lions -9.5 (+100)

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Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys

Looks like another mismatch for Turkey Day. The Cowboys are 9.5 point favorites against the Commanders at home. Washington quarterback had been looking like he had a future until last weeks game against a relatively weak New York Giants defense. While the passing yards has gotten the notice he has gone over the 15.5 rushing yards prop number three straight games. Against a strong pass rush he will need to run the ball to bye time and to pick up a few first downs.

Dak can also run the ball to keep drives alive. His line is set at 14.5 rushing yards and he has gone over that number in three of the last five games. One of the time he went under was a 14 yard game. While I did not add it on my same game parlay. I do have a straight bet on Dak Prescott to score a touchdown at +425.

The Cowboys will be able to score 30+ against the Washington defense and Sam Howell may get garbage points late but he will get at least two touchdowns. The game total should surpass 50 points to make the third leg of the same game parlay.

Sam Howell

  • Team: Washington Commanders
  • Position: Quarterback
  • Prop Bet: Rushing Yards
  • Betting Line: 15.5  o(-115) 

Dak Prescott

  • Team: Dallas Cowboys
  • Position: Quarterback
  • Prop Bet: Rushing Yards
  • Betting Line: 14.5 o(-111) 

Game Total

  • Team: Commanders vs Cowboys
  • Position: Team
  • Alternative Total
  • Betting Line: 48.5. (-110)

Straight Bets :

  • Sam Howell Rushing Yards OVER 15.5 (-115)
  • Dak Prescott Rushing Yards OVER 14.5 (-11)
  • Game Total OVER 48.5 (-110)

Correlation Bet : +525

  • Sam Howell Rushing Yards OVER 15.5 (-115)
  • Dak Prescott Rushing Yards OVER 14.5 (-11)
  • Game Total OVER 48.5 (-110)

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NFL Player Prop Bet Model

NFL player prop bet picks are based on our exclusive betting model with over 75,000 player prop bet results since the 2015 season.There are many ways to bet on players in the NFL. Bet on a quarterbacks passing yards or interceptions. A running backs rushing or receiving yards. Not only are there more props to bet on but there are also more players to bet on. In 2015 when we started collecting player prop bet results. There were just over 6,000 prop bet results for the regular season. Compare that with over 15,000 player prop bet results for the 2022 season. In 2015 only the primary running back had props on him. Many tight ends didn’t have props to wager on. This all changed as fantasy football took off and people migrated over to making real money NFL bets on players.

NFL Player Prop Bet Strategy – Bet the Under

Somethings have not changed over the years. There is still a built in advantage for betting the under on NFL player props. Most fans want to bet the over and the sportsbook managers will take advantage of this by shading the lines a little bit. If Patrick Mahomes should have a passing yards prop of 285.5 yards. The books will put out a 290.5. They know the fans will still want to bet the over. If you are in it for entertainment then make the bet. However, if you are in it for the money then take advantage of the 3% built in edge for under bets.

Note: Gambling should be entertaining. Please do not gamble more than you can afford to lose. If you are having problems controlling your gambling please contact the National Council on Problem Gambling.

NFL Prop Bet Predictions 2023 will based on our exclusive betting model with over 75,000 player prop bet results since the 2017 season.There are many ways to bet on players in the NFL. One thing most prop bettors do not look at is how have other players done against an opposing defense on the same prop. It is a vital part of our NFL player prop prediction model.

As always, shop around for the best odds. I have 3 US sportsbooks and 3 offshore sportsbooks. The odds below are the first out so look for better odds.