NFL Week 11 Same Game Parlay & Prop Correlation Picks 2023
NFL Prop Bet Picks 2023 Week 11
Thursday Night Football Correlation Bets
Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens
Same Game Parlay based on the OVER on the game total.
Both of these teams lost last week and both lost in the same way. The defenses let them down. This wasn’t a fluke as both teams can be passed on. Burrow is healthy and his receivers are healthy enough to start reminding fans of the Bengals of the last couple of seasons. What is different is the defense hasn’t been as good as previous seasons. C.J. Stroud is the top rookie offensive player but he was looking like an MVP against a Bengals secondary that could stay with Texan receivers.
Lamar Jackson has been putting up some decent passing and rushing numbers but against the Browns last week the defense fell apart. Baltimore can not depend on stopping teams and winning games if they score less than 24 points. The last time out against the Bengals. Mark Andrews had 5 receptions on 8 targets for 45 yards and a touchdown. Look for Andrews to be Jacksons primary target in the red zone again. In a game that should have both teams scoring 24+ points there are plenty of touchdowns to go around. Andrews should get at least one of them.
Joe Burrow
- Team : Cincinnati Bengals
- Position : Quarterback
- Prop Bet : Touchdown Passes
- Betting Line : 1.5+ (-110)
Mark Andrews
- Team : Baltimore Ravens
- Position : Tight End
- Prop Bet : Touchdown Scorer
- Betting Line : 0.5+ (+145)
Game Total
- Team : Bengals vs Ravens
- Position : Team
- Prop Bet : Total OVER
- Betting Line : 46.0 0(-110)
Straight Bets :
- Joe Burrow : Passing Touchdowns 1.5+ (-110) Loss
- Mark Andrews : Touchdowns 0.5+ (+145) Loss
- Game Total : OVER 46.0 (-110) Win
Correlation Bet : +430
- Joe Burrow : Passing Touchdowns 1.5+ (-110)
- Mark Andrews : Touchdowns 0.5+ (+145)
- Game Total : OVER 46.0 (-110)
Bet BOTH the straight bets and the correlation bets if you are trying to make sports betting a part time or full time job. If you are just looking for a little entertainment then placing a small bet on the same game parlay can be fun. I do both. A majority of my money is on straight bets but I also put down a little on the Same Game Parlay.
If you want to understand why and how much of a correlation there is. Please read my article
NFL Same Game Parlay & Player Prop Bet Correlations & Strategy
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Sunday NFL Player Prop Bet Parlay
New York Giants vs Washington Commanders
Two bad NFC East teams go at it in a game that only die hard fans and gamblers will care about.
The Commanders have found a quarterback in Sam Howell. He has gone over 300 passing yards in three straight games for Washington. There is some thought that the Commanders will get out to a large enough lead that he will not throw the ball enough to come close to 300 in this game. When these two teams played earlier in the season. The Washington offense only scored 7 points and how still had 249 passing yards as the Giants were able to shutdown the Washington running game.
Who else benefits from the Commanders not being able to run the ball on the Giants? Jahan Dotson and Logan Thomas. Much like fantasy football, prop betting also depends on the hand cuff play or correlation bet. Both will get 6+ targets and should have 4+ receptions each.
The last item to check is the weather. The wind is expected to be less than 10mph so it should have no effect on the passing game.
Sam Howell
- Team: Washington Commanders
- Position: Quarterback
- Passing Yards
- Betting Line: 254.5 0(+100)
Jahan Dotson
- Team: Washington Commanders
- Position: Wide Receiver
- Receiving Yards
- Betting Line: 37.5 (-115)
Logan Thomas
- Team: Washington Commanders
- Position: Tight End
- Receiving Yards
- Betting Line: -35.5 (-115)
Straight Bets :
- Sam Howell Passing Yards : OVER 254.5 Win
- Jahan Dotson Receiving Yards : OVER 37.5 Loss
- Logan Thomas Receiving Yards : OVER 35.5 Win
Correlation Bet : +365
- Sam Howell Passing Yards : OVER 254.5
- Jahan Dotson Receiving Yards : OVER 37.5
- Logan Thomas Receiving Yards : OVER 35.5
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Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions
Welcome to David Montgomery day. The former Bear has his chance to show what he can do when he is on a good team facing a bad team. The Bears are going nowhere. The Lions have the playoffs in site. One thing about the Lions offense, it is much better in a dome. The Lions will be able to run or pass against the Bears and as the Bears fall further behind expect the Lions to run the ball more.
Chicago has been a good defense against the run this season. This is a volume bet based on Montgomery facing his old team and the Lions getting out to a double digit lead.
David Montgomery
- Team: Detroit Lions
- Position: Running Back
- Prop Bet: Rushing Yards ALT Line
- Betting Line: 75+ (+375)
David Montgomery
- Team: Detroit Lions
- Position: Running Back
- Prop Bet: Anytime Touchdown
- Betting Line: 0.5+ (-130)
Straight Bets :
- David Montgomery Alt Rushing Yards +375 Win
- David Montgomery Anytime Touchdown -130 Win
Correlation Bet : +430
- David Montgomery Alt Rushing Yards +375
- David Montgomery Anytime Touchdown -130
Monday NFL Correlations Bets
Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs
A rematch of one of the betters Super Bowls will take place in Kansas City tonight. The weather should be light rain and about 10mph winds at kickoff. There will be a more steady rain during the day and that should help the offense a little with a slippery field helping receivers.
A big change from last season is the Eagles pass defense. The Eagles have gone from one of the best at holding opponents under on passing yards props to one of the worst this season. With the Chiefs lack of a steady running game, look for Patrick Mahomes to pass early and often. Rashee Rice will be the receiver I have the most faith in going over on his receiving yards prop tonight.
The Eagles offense will be more balance with Jalen Hurts and D’ Andre Swift both a running threat. Swift should get 15+ carries and Hurts 9+ carries tonight.
Patrick Mahomes
- Team: Kansas City Chiefs
- Position: Quarterback
- Prop Bet: Passing Yards
- Betting Line: 283.5 o(-115)
Rashee Rice
- Team: Kansas City Chiefs
- Position: Wide Receiver
- Prop Bet: Receiving Yards
- Betting Line: 43.5 o(-125)
Jalen Hurts
- Team: Philadelphia Eagles
- Position: Quarterback
- Prop Bet: Rushing Yards
- Betting Line: 38.5 o(-115)
Total Bet
- Team: Eagles vs Chiefs
- Position: Team
- Prop Bet: Total Over
- Betting Line: 45.5 (-110)
Straight Bets :
- Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop OVER 283.5
- Jalen Hurts Rushing Yards Prop OVER 38.5
- Rasheed Rice Receiving Yards Prop OVER 43.5
- Game Total OVER 45.5
Correlation Bet : +625
- Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop OVER 283.5
- Jalen Hurts Rushing Yards Prop OVER 38.5
- Rasheed Rice Receiving Yards Prop OVER 43.5
- Game Total OVER 45.5
NFL Player Prop Bet Model
NFL player prop bet picks are based on our exclusive betting model with over 75,000 player prop bet results since the 2015 season.There are many ways to bet on players in the NFL. Bet on a quarterbacks passing yards or interceptions. A running backs rushing or receiving yards. Not only are there more props to bet on but there are also more players to bet on. In 2015 when we started collecting player prop bet results. There were just over 6,000 prop bet results for the regular season. Compare that with over 15,000 player prop bet results for the 2022 season. In 2015 only the primary running back had props on him. Many tight ends didn’t have props to wager on. This all changed as fantasy football took off and people migrated over to making real money NFL bets on players.
NFL Player Prop Bet Strategy – Bet the Under
Somethings have not changed over the years. There is still a built in advantage for betting the under on NFL player props. Most fans want to bet the over and the sportsbook managers will take advantage of this by shading the lines a little bit. If Patrick Mahomes should have a passing yards prop of 285.5 yards. The books will put out a 290.5. They know the fans will still want to bet the over. If you are in it for entertainment then make the bet. However, if you are in it for the money then take advantage of the 3% built in edge for under bets.
Note: Gambling should be entertaining. Please do not gamble more than you can afford to lose. If you are having problems controlling your gambling please contact the National Council on Problem Gambling.
NFL Prop Bet Predictions 2023 will based on our exclusive betting model with over 75,000 player prop bet results since the 2017 season.There are many ways to bet on players in the NFL. One thing most prop bettors do not look at is how have other players done against an opposing defense on the same prop. It is a vital part of our NFL player prop prediction model.
As always, shop around for the best odds. I have 3 US sportsbooks and 3 offshore sportsbooks. The odds below are the first out so look for better odds.
