NFL Week 10 Same Game Parlay & Prop Correlation Picks 2023
NFL Prop Bet Picks 2023 Week 10
Thursday Night Football Correlation Bets
Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears
Same Game Parlay based on the UNDER on the game total.
It does not look like Justin Fields will be starting and even if he did he would not be a throwing threat. The Bears will need to run the ball no matter who is at quarterback. The key here is that the Panthers are last in DVOA against the rush. Whoever starts at running back will get carries but so will who doesn’t start. That is where there is value.
Bryce Young was not able to take advantage of a relatively weak Colts defense last week and there is no reason to expect him to be better against the Bears defense. This will be another boost to the Bears running game. All they have to do is what the Colts did last week and just run all day.
With the Bears running the ball and the Panthers offense not able to put up big numbers the total of 38.0 is something to jump on for a same game parlay with the running backs.
D’ Onta Foreman
- Team : Chicago Bears
- Position : Running Back
- Prop Bet : Rushing Yards
- Betting Line : 62.5 0(-115)
Roschon Johnson
- Team : Chicago Bears
- Position : Running Back
- Prop Bet : Rushing Yards
- Betting Line : 23.5 o(-115)
Game Total
- Team : Panthers vs Bears
- Position : Team
- Prop Bet : Total UNDER
- Betting Line : 39.0 u(-110)
Straight Bets :
- Roschon Johnson : Rushing Yards OVER 23.5 (-115)
- D’Onta Foreman : Rushing Yards OVER 62.5 (-115)
- Game Total : UNDER 38.0 (-110)
Correlation Bet : +575
- Roschon Johnson : Rushing Yards OVER 23.5 (-115)
- D’Onta Foreman : Rushing Yards OVER 62.5 (-115)
- Game Total : UNDER 38.0 (-110)
Bet BOTH the straight bets and the correlation bets if you are trying to make sports betting a part time or full time job. If you are just looking for a little entertainment then placing a small bet on the same game parlay can be fun. I do both. A majority of my money is on straight bets but I also put down a little on the Same Game Parlay.
If you want to understand why and how much of a correlation there is. Please read my article
NFL Same Game Parlay & Player Prop Bet Correlations & Strategy
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Europe Sunday NFL Player Prop Bet Parlay
Indianapolis Colts vs New England Patriots
Why would I wake up early for this game? Not much scoring expected and that is the prop bet correlation I will be taking. The main bet is the game to go under the 43.0 total.
With Jonathan Taylor back he is expected to get most of the carries but not all of them. Zack Moss will still get his carries in a close low scoring game. I have him getting 6+ carries so the money is on him to go over on his low rushing yards total.
Who else benefits from a close low scoring game? Rhamondre Stevenson. He might not average 4 yards a carry and still go over on his rushing yards prop.
Just two prop picks and a game total pick. Yes, and I will wake up in the 4th quarter and see if I am going to cash.
Zack Moss
- Team: Indianapolis Colts
- Position: Running Back
- Rushing Yards
- Betting Line: 27.5 o(-115)
Rhamondre Stevenson
- Team: New England Patriots
- Position: Running Back
- Rushing Yards
- Betting Line: 48.5 o(-115)
Game Total
- Team: Colts vs Patriots
- Position: Team
- Game Total
- Betting Line: 43. u(-110)
Straight Bets :
- Zack Moss Rushing Yards OVER 27.5 (-115)
- Rhamondre Stevenson Rushing Yards OVER 48.5 (-115)
- Game Total UNDER 43.0
Same Game Parlay : +650
- Zack Moss Rushing Yards OVER 27.5 (-115)
- Rhamondre Stevenson Rushing Yards OVER 48.5 (-115)
- Game Total UNDER 43.0
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NFL Player Prop Bet Model
NFL player prop bet picks are based on our exclusive betting model with over 75,000 player prop bet results since the 2015 season.There are many ways to bet on players in the NFL. Bet on a quarterbacks passing yards or interceptions. A running backs rushing or receiving yards. Not only are there more props to bet on but there are also more players to bet on. In 2015 when we started collecting player prop bet results. There were just over 6,000 prop bet results for the regular season. Compare that with over 15,000 player prop bet results for the 2022 season. In 2015 only the primary running back had props on him. Many tight ends didn’t have props to wager on. This all changed as fantasy football took off and people migrated over to making real money NFL bets on players.
NFL Player Prop Bet Strategy – Bet the Under
Somethings have not changed over the years. There is still a built in advantage for betting the under on NFL player props. Most fans want to bet the over and the sportsbook managers will take advantage of this by shading the lines a little bit. If Patrick Mahomes should have a passing yards prop of 285.5 yards. The books will put out a 290.5. They know the fans will still want to bet the over. If you are in it for entertainment then make the bet. However, if you are in it for the money then take advantage of the 3% built in edge for under bets.
Note: Gambling should be entertaining. Please do not gamble more than you can afford to lose. If you are having problems controlling your gambling please contact the National Council on Problem Gambling.
NFL Prop Bet Predictions 2023 will based on our exclusive betting model with over 75,000 player prop bet results since the 2017 season.There are many ways to bet on players in the NFL. One thing most prop bettors do not look at is how have other players done against an opposing defense on the same prop. It is a vital part of our NFL player prop prediction model.
As always, shop around for the best odds. I have 3 US sportsbooks and 3 offshore sportsbooks. The odds below are the first out so look for better odds.
