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NFL Same Game Parlay & Player Prop Correlations Strategy & Analytics

NFL Player Prop Bet Results for the 2021 Season by XSportsbook

NFL Same Game Parlay & Player Prop Bet Correlations Strategy & Analytics

XSportsbook has collected 13,487 player prop betting results from just the 2021 season and analyzed them for how likely each prop bet is to go over or go under the betting line. As you will see if you are not betting the under you are most likely losing money. However, that was not enough to take full advantage of the player prop betting information so I also ran the data against the spread betting results for every game of the 2021 season. There were 283 including the Super Bowl with 2 games finishing in a push against the spread.

FAQ for Same Game Parlay & Player Prop Bet Correlations

  • Is a quarterback more likely to go over or under on a passing yards prop when his team covers the spread?
  • How much money would I have won or lost by just betting the over on every player prop?
  • What is the best player prop to bet the over on when a team covers the spread?
  • What is the best player prop to bet the over on when a team loses against the spread?
  • What is the correlation between different prop bets and a game spread?

These and many more questions will be answered, and you will be able to see the math behind the answers. I would be willing to bet that most people will not like seeing the results but those of you who care more about winning money than the entertainment of gambling will be able to use these charts to change how you are betting.

Example of NFL Player Proposition Bet & Same Game Parlay

Let’s start with a real line from week one of the 2021 season in a game between the Dallas Cowboys and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Dak Prescott: Prop Bet Completions line 25.5, odds over (-135) & odds under (+105)

One thing that stands out is that the over and under are not at (-110) like you would normally see on game betting lines. This is common on player props because most gamblers want to bet the over so the over gets more action and that can cause the odds to be reduced or the prop bet line total to be moved.

What were the real results?

Dak had 42 completions and went over on his prop.

If you bet $100 on Dak to go over on his prop you would have won $74.07. Of course, a loss would have cost you $100. If the sportsbook had just two people bet, and one took the over and one took the under the sportsbook would have netted $25.93. I won’t go deeply into line shopping right now, but you could have found better than (-135) if you shopped around.

The same game had the Cowboys as 9-point dogs at (-110). They covered the spread so a bet on Dak to go over on his completions prop along with the Cowboys plus the points would have covered on a same game parlay. But would a spread win & an over on completions cover enough during the season to make this bet a regular part of your NFL betting?

A little of the math that I will go into deeper. The percentages are based on the over 13 thousand prop bet results from just last season. When a team covers the game point spread the over on the completions prop covered 40.2% of the time  on a straight bet. If you parlayed both a team to cover the spread and a quarterback to go over on his completions prop this bet would have paid off only 19.9% of the time. If they were truly independent betting odds the expectation would be for it to payout close to 25% of the time.

This bet, a team to cover the game point spread and a quarterback to go over on his completions prop has a negative betting correlation.

Are you starting to understand why every sportsbook in the US is pushing same game betting?

Independent Betting Odds vs Correlated Betting Odds

Independent Odds – Odds from two events which do not influence each other. Such as a football game point spread and a basketball game point spread. Since one result has no influence on the other, they are considered independent from each other. This is the typical line that sportsbooks have been posting for years. It is usually listed with a betting line such as Rams line -6, odds (-110) and, Lakers line -4, odds (-110). This two-team parlay would pay out $360 on a $100 wager. The win would be $260, and the bettor would get his $100 bet back.

Correlated Odds – Correlated odds have a mathematical likelihood to win/lose that is altered by one of the two betting results. Such as a running back going over on his rushing yards prop and a team covering the point spread. The results are clear. There is a correlation between a running back going over on his rushing yards prop and a team covering the point spread. If a team covers the game point spread, then a straight bet on a running back going over on his rushing yards prop hit 56.0% of the time last season. A two team same game parlay made on a team covering against the spread and a running back going over on his rushing yards prop bet cashed 28.5% of the time.

Why 25%? Look at the outcomes available.

The four outcomes possible:

  1. Team Covers & RB Over on Prop
  2. Team Covers & RB Under on Prop
  3. Team Fails to Cover & RB Over on Prop
  4. Team Fails to Cover & RB Under on Prop

If they are independent events, then each one should cover at close to 25.0% of the time. The 28.5% is an advantage for the bettor. Of course, the sportsbook managers know this, and they can adjust the odds to reduce the payout. Did they? You will find out in the same game parlay chart later. Always remember that correlation is not causation. However, you do not always have to know why something is correlated to make money off it.

NFL Player Prop Betting Results for the 2021 Season

NFL Player Prop Bet Results 2021

Chart 1

About Chart One

  • Tracked 13,487 from week one up to and including the Super Bowl.
  • The over on props covered 44.3% of the time.
  • The under on props covered 54.5% of the time.
  • Props broken down by player position and prop bet.
  • If you had bet $100 on every prop bet to go over, you would have lost $210,310
  • If you had bet $100 on every prop bet to go under, you would have won 43,974

How the chart is calculated

All bets are set to $100. This means that every losing bet is (-$100). The winning bets are calculated with the actual odds offered by the sportsbook. Look at the “All Props” row. 5,974 player props went over the betting line and 7,344 went under the betting line.

  • Over Win – If you had bet $100 on the prop to go over this is your win
  • Over Loss – If you had bet $100 on the prop to go over this is your loss
  • Over P&L – The win minus the loss leaves a net profit or loss on over bets
  • Under Win – If you had bet $100 on the prop to go under this is your win
  • Under Loss – If you had bet $100 on the prop to go under this is your loss
  • Under P&L – The win minus the loss leaves a net profit or loss on under bets

Did you bet the under a lot last season? No? Thank you for keeping the odds in my favor.

NFL Player Prop Betting Results for the 2021 Season

NFL Player Prop Bet Results 2021

Chart 1

About Chart One

  • Tracked 13,487 from week one up to and including the Super Bowl.
  • The over on props covered 44.3% of the time.
  • The under on props covered 54.5% of the time.
  • Props broken down by player position and prop bet.
  • If you had bet $100 on every prop bet to go over, you would have lost $210,310
  • If you had bet $100 on every prop bet to go under, you would have won 43,974

How the chart is calculated

All bets are set to $100. This means that every losing bet is (-$100). The winning bets are calculated with the actual odds offered by the sportsbook. Look at the “All Props” row. 5,974 player props went over the betting line and 7,344 went under the betting line.

  • Over Win – If you had bet $100 on the prop to go over this is your win
  • Over Loss – If you had bet $100 on the prop to go over this is your loss
  • Over P&L – The win minus the loss leaves a net profit or loss on over bets
  • Under Win – If you had bet $100 on the prop to go under this is your win
  • Under Loss – If you had bet $100 on the prop to go under this is your loss
  • Under P&L – The win minus the loss leaves a net profit or loss on under bets

Did you bet the under a lot last season? No? Thank you for keeping the odds in my favor.

Average Prop Bet Payout on a Winning Bet

Average Payout on a winning NFL player prop bet

Chart 2

About Chart Two

  • Tracked 13,487 from week one up to and including the Super Bowl.
  • Real sportsbook odds are used.
  • Props broken down by player position and prop bet.
  • All results are based on $100 straight bets.
  • All player prop bet pushes are not included in win/loss

Which prop bet had the highest average winning payout?

This doesn’t mean the prop covered the most. Instead, I am looking at the real odds offered on all the props and calculating the odds offered on only the winning bets. For your information all losing bets are negative $100. A  player prop push is not included.  

The Passing Touchdown prop paid at over 100% on a winning bet! Bet it every time and make profit? No! This is the average amount when the quarterback goes over on his passing yards prop. Look at the number of times the prop went over the line and the number it went under the line. You can see that this prop was far more likely to go under than over. But, why a positive return? Because it was the scrubs who were covering. Fans love to bet the over on high profile quarterbacks but will usually not touch the over on some of the worst quarterbacks. The scrubs were profitable if you were betting them last season.

How does the Average Payout Correlate to the Betting Odds?

  • Odds -105 would pay $95.23
  • Odds -110 would pay $90.90
  • Odds -115 would pay $86.96
  • Odds -120 would pay $83.33

By taking a look at the payout you will be able to calculate the average odds offered for the winning bets.

Look at both the odds on a winning bet on the over and a winning bet on the under. See how they are different. This is caused by differing odds on the over and under. Such as a prop with the over at (-105) and the under at (-120).

Take another look at the passing touchdowns prop. I already pointed out the over paid out at over $100 on an average win but now take a look at the under bet. When the under covered the average payout was just $75.24. In chart 1 this bet hit at 57.3% of the time. How do sportsbooks minimize risk when a bet hits this often? They shave the odds a little to reduce your return.

Average Prop Bet Payout on a Winning Bet

Average Payout on a winning NFL player prop bet

Chart 2

About Chart Two

  • Tracked 13,487 from week one up to and including the Super Bowl.
  • Real sportsbook odds are used.
  • Props broken down by player position and prop bet.
  • All results are based on $100 straight bets.
  • All player prop bet pushes are not included in win/loss

Which prop bet had the highest average winning payout?

This doesn’t mean the prop covered the most. Instead, I am looking at the real odds offered on all the props and calculating the odds offered on only the winning bets. For your information all losing bets are negative $100. A  player prop push is not included.  

The Passing Touchdown prop paid at over 100% on a winning bet! Bet it every time and make profit? No! This is the average amount when the quarterback goes over on his passing yards prop. Look at the number of times the prop went over the line and the number it went under the line. You can see that this prop was far more likely to go under than over. But, why a positive return? Because it was the scrubs who were covering. Fans love to bet the over on high profile quarterbacks but will usually not touch the over on some of the worst quarterbacks. The scrubs were profitable if you were betting them last season.

How does the Average Payout Correlate to the Betting Odds?

  • Odds -105 would pay $95.23
  • Odds -110 would pay $90.90
  • Odds -115 would pay $86.96
  • Odds -120 would pay $83.33

By taking a look at the payout you will be able to calculate the average odds offered for the winning bets.

Look at both the odds on a winning bet on the over and a winning bet on the under. See how they are different. This is caused by differing odds on the over and under. Such as a prop with the over at (-105) and the under at (-120).

Take another look at the passing touchdowns prop. I already pointed out the over paid out at over $100 on an average win but now take a look at the under bet. When the under covered the average payout was just $75.24. In chart 1 this bet hit at 57.3% of the time. How do sportsbooks minimize risk when a bet hits this often? They shave the odds a little to reduce your return.

How likely was an NFL Player Prop to Go Over / Under When a Team Covered, Lost or Pushed Against The Spread?

The next four charts show the percentage of each prop by Game ATS results. All 283 games were tracked and there were 2 games that ended in a push on the game point spread.

All Player Prop Bet Results 2021

NFL Player Prop Bet Results 2021

Chart 3

Prop Bet Results When a Team Covers the Game Point Spread

NFL Prop Bet Results when a team covered the point spread XSportsbook

Chart 4

Prop Bet Results When a Team Fails to Cover the Game Point Spread

NFL Player Prop Bet Results when a team lost against the point spread XSportsbook

Chart 5

Prop Bet Results When a Team Pushes the Game Point Spread

NFL Player Prop Bet Results when a team pushed against the point spread XSportsbook

Chart 6

Which Player Prop Had a High Correlation to the Game Point Spread?

You can look at each one to see how they correlated. Always look at the number of props offered for a particular bet before giving to much weight to a result.

The rushing yards prop bet had a good correlation to covering the spread. When an NFL team covered the game point spread the rushing yards prop went over 56.0% of the time. However, when a team failed to cover the point spread the rushing yards prop bet went over only 30.6% of the time.

Who says the running game doesn’t matter anymore.

Use this as quick guide to which player props you should add onto to your parlay if you like a team to cover the spread. Again, these are correlations not causation. But, adding three or four bets that are correlated will have a higher chance of cashing than going against the math.

How likely was an NFL Player Prop to Go Over / Under When a Team Covered, Lost or Pushed Against The Spread?

The next four charts show the percentage of each prop by Game ATS results. All 283 games were tracked and there were 2 games that ended in a push on the game point spread.

All Player Prop Bet Results 2021

NFL Player Prop Bet Results 2021

Chart 3

Prop Bet Results When a Team Covers the Game Point Spread

NFL Prop Bet Results when a team covered the point spread XSportsbook

Chart 4

Prop Bet Results When a Team Fails to Cover the Game Point Spread

NFL Player Prop Bet Results when a team lost against the point spread XSportsbook

Chart 5

Prop Bet Results When a Team Pushes the Game Point Spread

NFL Player Prop Bet Results when a team pushed against the point spread XSportsbook

Chart 6

Which Player Prop Had a High Correlation to the Game Point Spread?

You can look at each one to see how they correlated. Always look at the number of props offered for a particular bet before giving to much weight to a result.

The rushing yards prop bet had a good correlation to covering the spread. When an NFL team covered the game point spread the rushing yards prop went over 56.0% of the time. However, when a team failed to cover the point spread the rushing yards prop bet went over only 30.6% of the time.

Who says the running game doesn’t matter anymore.

Use this as quick guide to which player props you should add onto to your parlay if you like a team to cover the spread. Again, these are correlations not causation. But, adding three or four bets that are correlated will have a higher chance of cashing than going against the math.

NFL Player Prop Bet Profit & Loss

Profit & Loss on Betting ALL Player Props Only Over or Under

NFL Player Prop Bet Profit Loss for the 2021 Season by XSportsbook

Chart 7

About Chart 7

The chart is based on betting all props over or all props under.

  1. Over Win – If you only bet the over the amount won
  2. Over Loss – If you only bet the over the amount lost
  3. Under Win – If you only bet the under the amount won
  4. Under Loss – If you only bet the under the amount lost

If you had just blindly bet $100 on the under on all NFL player props tracked last season you would have ended up with a profit of $43,974. No thinking required. Just wake on Sunday and bet the under again and again. You wont get rich doing this but it is a good way to build a bankroll. By the end of the season you could be betting $200 or $300 on each under.

Straight Prop Bets Profit & Loss Based on Game Spread Outcomes

NFL Player Prop Betting Results by Position and Prop XSportsbook

Chart 8

About Chart 8

This takes the profit and loss shown in chart 7 and breaks it down into four outcomes.

  1. Game Spread Win & Prop Bet Over
  2. Game Spread Win & Prop Bet Under
  3. Game Spread Loss & Prop Bet Over
  4. Game Spread Loss & Prop Bet Under

 The 2 games that ended in a push against the spread are not included in this chart and this will cause a small difference the total profit and loss for prop bets.

I must emphasize that these are only straight player prop bets. The profit and loss is calculated using the real player prop betting odds. Once again, the amount bet is set to $100 so every losing bet is going to be (-$100).

The four buckets show that betting on the over on player props made your bookie very proud of you. Now take a look at the two buckets with prop bet under bets. Both had a positive return for the season.

The quarterbacks were profitable bets on the under when a team covered against the spread and running backs were a profitable bet on the under when a team failed to cover the spread.

Spread Loss & Prop Bet Under?

This one is a little confusing but as you can see it is quite profitable. How do I make this bet more often? Remember, these are same GAME parlays and not same TEAM parlays.

Example:

Rams are favored by 3.5 against the Bills

The rushing yards prop for the Bills Zach Moss is set to 65.5 yards at -110 on the over/under

The Rams win the game 31 to 24 and Moss rushes for 60 yards.

Bills lost against the spread so the bet would be on the Rams to cover AND the Bills Zach Moss to go under on his player prop.

NFL Player Prop Bet Profit & Loss

Profit & Loss on Betting ALL Player Props Only Over or Under

NFL Player Prop Bet Profit Loss for the 2021 Season by XSportsbook

Chart 7

About Chart 7

The chart is based on betting all props over or all props under.

  1. Over Win – If you only bet the over the amount won
  2. Over Loss – If you only bet the over the amount lost
  3. Under Win – If you only bet the under the amount won
  4. Under Loss – If you only bet the under the amount lost

If you had just blindly bet $100 on the under on all NFL player props tracked last season you would have ended up with a profit of $43,974. No thinking required. Just wake on Sunday and bet the under again and again. You wont get rich doing this but it is a good way to build a bankroll. By the end of the season you could be betting $200 or $300 on each under.

Straight Prop Bets Profit & Loss Based on Game Spread Outcomes

NFL Player Prop Betting Results by Position and Prop XSportsbook

Chart 8

About Chart 8

This takes the profit and loss shown in chart 7 and breaks it down into four outcomes.

  1. Game Spread Win & Prop Bet Over
  2. Game Spread Win & Prop Bet Under
  3. Game Spread Loss & Prop Bet Over
  4. Game Spread Loss & Prop Bet Under

 The 2 games that ended in a push against the spread are not included in this chart and this will cause a small difference the total profit and loss for prop bets.

I must emphasize that these are only straight player prop bets. The profit and loss is calculated using the real player prop betting odds. Once again, the amount bet is set to $100 so every losing bet is going to be (-$100).

The four buckets show that betting on the over on player props made your bookie very proud of you. Now take a look at the two buckets with prop bet under bets. Both had a positive return for the season.

The quarterbacks were profitable bets on the under when a team covered against the spread and running backs were a profitable bet on the under when a team failed to cover the spread.

Spread Loss & Prop Bet Under?

This one is a little confusing but as you can see it is quite profitable. How do I make this bet more often? Remember, these are same GAME parlays and not same TEAM parlays.

Example:

Rams are favored by 3.5 against the Bills

The rushing yards prop for the Bills Zach Moss is set to 65.5 yards at -110 on the over/under

The Rams win the game 31 to 24 and Moss rushes for 60 yards.

Bills lost against the spread so the bet would be on the Rams to cover AND the Bills Zach Moss to go under on his player prop.

Same Game Parlay Results Based on Game &  Prop Outcomes

NFL Same Game Parlay & Player Prop Correlations to Game Spread Results XSportsbook

Chart 9

About Chart 9

The percentages are a breakdown of prop & game parlay results for the 2021 NFL season. If the four outcomes were independent variables, then each of these four would be close to 25.0%.

  • Win/Over- 22.5%
  • Win/Under- 26.7%
  • Loss/Over- 21.7%
  • Loss/Under – 27.8%
  • Under less than 20.0% is red and over greater than 30.0% is green.

The chart is the result of a parlay of a prop bet to the game spread result. The two NFL games that resulted in a push against the spread are excluded from the results. The “Push” columns are for a push on the player prop.

The number of betting results can cause a significant variance and that needs to be a part of your research. You can look at the first chart to see the total number of bets for each player prop and make an assessment on if there are enough outcomes to base your bet on the data.

The interceptions prop bet has a nice correlation. If a team covers the spread it hits the over only 17.5% of the time but if a team loses against the spread then it hits the over 33.1% of the time.

While these are just two-event parlays with one prop and a game result. This can be used to add several correlated bets to a parlay on a game outcome.

Same Game Parlay Results Based on Game &  Prop Outcomes

NFL Same Game Parlay & Player Prop Correlations to Game Spread Results XSportsbook

Chart 9

About Chart 9

The percentages are a breakdown of prop & game parlay results for the 2021 NFL season. If the four outcomes were independent variables, then each of these four would be close to 25.0%.

  • Win/Over- 22.5%
  • Win/Under- 26.7%
  • Loss/Over- 21.7%
  • Loss/Under – 27.8%
  • Under less than 20.0% is red and over greater than 30.0% is green.

The chart is the result of a parlay of a prop bet to the game spread result. The two NFL games that resulted in a push against the spread are excluded from the results. The “Push” columns are for a push on the player prop.

The number of betting results can cause a significant variance and that needs to be a part of your research. You can look at the first chart to see the total number of bets for each player prop and make an assessment on if there are enough outcomes to base your bet on the data.

The interceptions prop bet has a nice correlation. If a team covers the spread it hits the over only 17.5% of the time but if a team loses against the spread then it hits the over 33.1% of the time.

While these are just two-event parlays with one prop and a game result. This can be used to add several correlated bets to a parlay on a game outcome.

NFL Same Game Parlay Correlations & Adjusted Odds

I know that math might not come into play for a lot of sports bettors out there and all I can say is thank you. Those who ignore math will make my odds that much sweeter.

Example:

Once again look at the “Same Game Parlay based on Spread Outcomes” chart 9 and look at the passing attempts prop bet. The same game parlay of a team covering the spread and a quarterback going over on his passing attempts prop only hit 17.3% of the time. Compare that to a spread loss and hitting the over on passing attempts which covered 31.3% of the time. This prop bet is a good example of the betting splits on a prop bets.

But most gamblers want to bet on a team to cover and a prop bet to go over. Yes, I hear you. The prop bet you should start considering is a team to cover the spread and a running back to go over on his rushing attempts prop. This hit 30.7% of the time!

The next chart adjusts for the likelihood of a prop bet and spread bet correlating.

Same Game Parlay Correlated Odds

Earlier I brought up independent odds which are what we are used to as sports bettors. For same game parlays you need to begin to adjust how you look at the odds of a bet based on the correlation of the two events.

NFL Same Game Parlay Odds Adjusted for Correlation XSportsbook

Chart 10

About Chart 10

If the four outcomes were independent variables, then each of these four odds would be 2.6.

  • Win/Over- 2.8
  • Win/Under- 2.4
  • Loss/Over- 2.9
  • Loss/Under – 2.3
  • 2.0 and under is red and 3.0 and over is green.

This chart gets a little complicated so I will break it down more than the previous ones.

Chart 10 does not include the props from the two games that ended in a push against the spread and it does also not include all player props that ended in a push. Now we have four buckets and each should have an outcome close to 2.6 to be considered truly independent variables.

Why 2.6 equals 25.0%

Traditional 2 Team Parlays Win / Loss

When it comes to 2 team parlays at -110 odds the win would be 2.6 to 1 or a payout of 3.6. A $100 bet on a winning combination would return $360 with a $260 win and the return of the initial $100 bet. The three losing parlays would each be a $100 loss. The difference between the payout of $360 and the four $100 bets would be $40. This is the profit for the sportsbook.

Four outcomes based on a two-team parlay with $100 bets with the Win/Over bet covering:

  1. Win/Over – Team covers the game point spread and the player goes over on his prop bet. Bet $100 and received $260 in profit and his $100 bet back for a total of $360.
  2. Win/Under – Team covers the game point spread and the player goes under on his prop bet. Bet $100 and lost (-$100)
  3. Loss/Over – Team loses the game point spread and the player goes over on his prop bet. Bet $100 and lost (-$100)
  4. Loss/Under – Team loses the game point spread and the player goes under on his prop bet. Bet $100 and lost (-$100)

Total bet: $400

Total payout: $360

Sportsbook profit: $40

Turning SGP Percentages Into Correlated Win

The “All Props” row in chart 10 is a good place to start. The four outcomes should have a payout of 2.6 on (-110) odds if they were independent odds. The percentages used below are taken from Chart 9 “The Same Game Parlay Results based on Spread Outcomes”. The props that ended in a push are removed for the SGP Adjusted Odds because a push on a SGP will most likely result in the bet being cancelled.

The four outcomes are based on a $100 bet:

  1. Win/Over – Has a 22.5% of chance of paying out. Because this is less than the 25.0% chance that would be expected. The sportsbook should INCREASE the payout to make up for the lesser likelihood of a customer cashing. Do they? The sportsbooks shave this for all they can. This is one of the prime reasons for same game parlays being pushed so hard by casinos. If the payout was adjusted to the real likelihood of this parlay hitting it would have a baseline of 2.83. On a $100 two team parlay the win should be $283.
  2. Win/Under – This has a 26.7% likelihood of hitting so the sportsbook should REDUCE the payout based on the greater likelihood of this bet hitting. A return of 2.39 or $239 win on a $100 would be a baseline for making a bet. Some bettors will see that the odds are less than 2.6 and immediately think the sportsbook is trying to fleece them. Not so. The $239 win is legitimate. I have seen professional sports bettors make this mistake so if you understand this you know more than 99% of the people betting on NFL games.
  3. Loss/Over – Covered 21.7% of the time last season. This one is money for the sportsbooks if you are getting less than 2.91 on your parlay. Check the Same Game Parlay odds and see if it is not in your favor. You might get 2.6 and think that is normal and not give it a second thought. The math says you should shop around more. The baseline win would be $291.
  4. Loss/Under – Covering 27.8% of the time this was the most likely result of a two-team game spread & player prop parlay in 2021. Like the Win/Under parlay bet this one hit more than 25.0% of the time so odds that are less than 2.6 should be expected. This prop should have the lowest win of them all because of how often it hits.  The average win should be $227 or adjusted odds of 2.27.

Checking the Math on SGP Adjusted Odds

The total of $1040 is the win on four 2 team parlays with odds of 2.6.

Traditional two-team parlay

(1×2.6) * $100 = $260

(1×2.6) * $100 = $260

(1×2.6) * $100 = $260

(1×2.6) * $100 = $260

(4×2.6) * $100 = $1040

Same game parlay adjusted odds

(1×2.83) * $100 = $283

(1×2.39) * $100 = $239

(1×2.91) * $100 = $291

(1×2.27) * $100 = $227

Total win is $1040

NFL Same Game Parlay Correlations & Adjusted Odds

I know that math might not come into play for a lot of sports bettors out there and all I can say is thank you. Those who ignore math will make my odds that much sweeter.

Example:

Once again look at the “Same Game Parlay based on Spread Outcomes” chart 9 and look at the passing attempts prop bet. The same game parlay of a team covering the spread and a quarterback going over on his passing attempts prop only hit 17.3% of the time. Compare that to a spread loss and hitting the over on passing attempts which covered 31.3% of the time. This prop bet is a good example of the betting splits on a prop bets.

But most gamblers want to bet on a team to cover and a prop bet to go over. Yes, I hear you. The prop bet you should start considering is a team to cover the spread and a running back to go over on his rushing attempts prop. This hit 30.7% of the time!

The next chart adjusts for the likelihood of a prop bet and spread bet correlating.

Same Game Parlay Correlated Odds

Earlier I brought up independent odds which are what we are used to as sports bettors. For same game parlays you need to begin to adjust how you look at the odds of a bet based on the correlation of the two events.

NFL Same Game Parlay Odds Adjusted for Correlation XSportsbook

Chart 10

About Chart 10

If the four outcomes were independent variables, then each of these four odds would be 2.6.

  • Win/Over- 2.8
  • Win/Under- 2.4
  • Loss/Over- 2.9
  • Loss/Under – 2.3
  • 2.0 and under is red and 3.0 and over is green.

This chart gets a little complicated so I will break it down more than the previous ones.

Chart 10 does not include the props from the two games that ended in a push against the spread and it does also not include all player props that ended in a push. Now we have four buckets and each should have an outcome close to 2.6 to be considered truly independent variables.

Why 2.6 equals 25.0%

Traditional 2 Team Parlays Win / Loss

When it comes to 2 team parlays at -110 odds the win would be 2.6 to 1 or a payout of 3.6. A $100 bet on a winning combination would return $360 with a $260 win and the return of the initial $100 bet. The three losing parlays would each be a $100 loss. The difference between the payout of $360 and the four $100 bets would be $40. This is the profit for the sportsbook.

Four outcomes based on a two-team parlay with $100 bets with the Win/Over bet covering:

  1. Win/Over – Team covers the game point spread and the player goes over on his prop bet. Bet $100 and received $260 in profit and his $100 bet back for a total of $360.
  2. Win/Under – Team covers the game point spread and the player goes under on his prop bet. Bet $100 and lost (-$100)
  3. Loss/Over – Team loses the game point spread and the player goes over on his prop bet. Bet $100 and lost (-$100)
  4. Loss/Under – Team loses the game point spread and the player goes under on his prop bet. Bet $100 and lost (-$100)

Total bet: $400

Total payout: $360

Sportsbook profit: $40

Turning SGP Percentages Into Correlated Win

The “All Props” row in chart 10 is a good place to start. The four outcomes should have a payout of 2.6 on (-110) odds if they were independent odds. The percentages used below are taken from Chart 9 “The Same Game Parlay Results based on Spread Outcomes”. The props that ended in a push are removed for the SGP Adjusted Odds because a push on a SGP will most likely result in the bet being cancelled.

The four outcomes are based on a $100 bet:

  1. Win/Over – Has a 22.5% of chance of paying out. Because this is less than the 25.0% chance that would be expected. The sportsbook should INCREASE the payout to make up for the lesser likelihood of a customer cashing. Do they? The sportsbooks shave this for all they can. This is one of the prime reasons for same game parlays being pushed so hard by casinos. If the payout was adjusted to the real likelihood of this parlay hitting it would have a baseline of 2.83. On a $100 two team parlay the win should be $283.
  2. Win/Under – This has a 26.7% likelihood of hitting so the sportsbook should REDUCE the payout based on the greater likelihood of this bet hitting. A return of 2.39 or $239 win on a $100 would be a baseline for making a bet. Some bettors will see that the odds are less than 2.6 and immediately think the sportsbook is trying to fleece them. Not so. The $239 win is legitimate. I have seen professional sports bettors make this mistake so if you understand this you know more than 99% of the people betting on NFL games.
  3. Loss/Over – Covered 21.7% of the time last season. This one is money for the sportsbooks if you are getting less than 2.91 on your parlay. Check the Same Game Parlay odds and see if it is not in your favor. You might get 2.6 and think that is normal and not give it a second thought. The math says you should shop around more. The baseline win would be $291.
  4. Loss/Under – Covering 27.8% of the time this was the most likely result of a two-team game spread & player prop parlay in 2021. Like the Win/Under parlay bet this one hit more than 25.0% of the time so odds that are less than 2.6 should be expected. This prop should have the lowest win of them all because of how often it hits.  The average win should be $227 or adjusted odds of 2.27.

Checking the Math on SGP Adjusted Odds

The total of $1040 is the win on four 2 team parlays with odds of 2.6.

Traditional two-team parlay

(1×2.6) * $100 = $260

(1×2.6) * $100 = $260

(1×2.6) * $100 = $260

(1×2.6) * $100 = $260

(4×2.6) * $100 = $1040

Same game parlay adjusted odds

(1×2.83) * $100 = $283

(1×2.39) * $100 = $239

(1×2.91) * $100 = $291

(1×2.27) * $100 = $227

Total win is $1040

Adjusted Win Based on Percentage of SPG Results

How much should I win on a 2-team parlay if SGP adjusted odds are used?

Same Game Parlay Win Based on Correlated Odds XSportsbook

Chart 11

About Chart 11

  • The prop bet push column is set to zero. On a two team SGP bet most sportsbooks will cancel the bet.
  • The red means that a bet has an adjusted win less than the $260 on a normal parlay
  • The green means that a bet has an adjusted win more than the $260 on a normal parlay.

Same Game Parlay Expected Win

Use this chart as a cheat sheet against the odds offered by your sportsbook. Enter a side on the game spread then pick one of the prop bets and compare the return the sportsbook is offering to the chart. This chart gives a baseline to start with. If the odds vary a little this is to be expected because of some players have a higher or lower correlation to the point spread. However, if there is a significant variance then you should shop around for bettor odds at another sportsbook.

Adjusted Win Based on Percentage of SPG Results

How much should I win on a 2-team parlay if SGP adjusted odds are used?

Same Game Parlay Win Based on Correlated Odds XSportsbook

Chart 11

About Chart 11

  • The prop bet push column is set to zero. On a two team SGP bet most sportsbooks will cancel the bet.
  • The red means that a bet has an adjusted win less than the $260 on a normal parlay
  • The green means that a bet has an adjusted win more than the $260 on a normal parlay.

Same Game Parlay Expected Win

Use this chart as a cheat sheet against the odds offered by your sportsbook. Enter a side on the game spread then pick one of the prop bets and compare the return the sportsbook is offering to the chart. This chart gives a baseline to start with. If the odds vary a little this is to be expected because of some players have a higher or lower correlation to the point spread. However, if there is a significant variance then you should shop around for bettor odds at another sportsbook.

Same Game Parlay & Player Prop Betting Strategy

Now that the math homework is complete the next question is how do I take advantage of this?

  1. Same Game Parlay NOT Same Team Parlay

Too many bettors just limit the betting to one side of a game. They are usually fans of a team and they bet the spread with the over and then add on some of their favorite players to go over on a prop. Yes, this hits occasionally just like any lottery bet. If you want to bet for the money instead of entertainment, then look at the “Game Spread Win” & “Came Spread Loss” charts and try to add on bets that will correlate with the spread outcome you are betting on. If you love the Ravens to cover the spread, then add on their opponents running backs to go under on rushing yards.

  1. Bet the under

Look at the math. Player prop bets often have 80%+ on the over and the sportsbook managers just book those bets and then sit back and laugh at the public. Think about how a game will play out if the side you are on covers. Will the running back on your team have a big day? There is only one ball so if a team can run the ball why would they pass a lot? What will that do to the wide receiver and tight end receptions?

  1. Correlation is not causation

The math above is the correlation but does not provide causation. Meaning this is not a predictive model that will tell you how each player will do each week. I run into guys with advanced math degrees in the sportsbook every year. They all think they have created a betting model that will make them rich. Yet, every year the casinos continue to make money. I bet on likelihoods. I just decide if I like a team to cover the spread then add on the four or five most correlated props. Not groundbreaking betting models but, I make a profit and I have time for a life.

  1. Round robin your bets

Making a same game parlay bet that has four or more bets can make for a bad day. How many times have you seen some guy post his bet on Reddit and get 7 out of 8 right. What does that pay? Nothing. To make money consistently you need to start round robbing your bets. One major reason is often overlooked. If you are betting on five players and one gets injured in the first quarter your parlay is blown unless you were betting the under. I have to admit here that I have bet the under on a prop and watched the player limp off the field in the first quarter and the first thought I had was “I cashed”. For those of you who have never made a round robin bet before. It is all combinations of your bet. If you have a four-team parlay and you round robin the bet on the three leg. That would mean you have four 3 team parlays going. Another reason to round robin your bet is that some sportsbooks will cancel the bet if a player doesn’t get into a game. Nothing like watching all of your research going to waste because of one player.

  1. Several sports betting accounts

There are good reasons for having more than one account. I have been bet limited in the past and sportsbooks do not tell you in advance that your betting limit has been reduced. I had one NFL Sunday that I found out an hour before kickoff that I could only make $50 straight bets. I had another sportsbook refuse my round robin bets. What did I do? I went to my other books and bet. I got my action in and then went back to the sportsbooks that limited me and bitched at them. They didn’t up my limits, but I got my action in and I was able to tell the sportsbook manager how ball less he was..

If you are betting with an app then the sportsbook tracks everything you do. They know if you are wining. They know what type of bet you are winning on. Win three or four weeks in a row and you will try to make a bet at Fanduel only to find out that you are now limited to $2 bets. The response will always be the same. We are in the entertainment business and do not accept professional bettors. What is a professional? Anyone who wins too much. I use five onshore sportsbooks and three offshore books. Laying my action off at different books keeps anyone of them from losing too much money.

Another vital reason to have more than one betting account. Line shopping. The chart on Same Game Parlay Adjusted odds provides a baseline to measure the odds offered by a sportsbook. The odds on these bets are all over the place. Not only the odds but also the lines can be different. One sportsbook might have Josh Allen over 285.5 passing yards while another has him over 290.5 passing yards. If the odds are the same, then take advantage of the better line. But what if they are not the same. If the book that has Allen at 290.5 passing yards is also offering a higher return on my bet. Then I might divide my money up between the two sportsbooks based on the return.

A very good reason to have several accounts. The new customer bonuses. Use them. Sign up at 2 new sportsbooks and use the bonus on opposite sides of the same game. If the Ravens are 3.5-point favorites over the Browns. Bet the Ravens -3.5 at one book and the Browns +3.5 at the other.

  1. Injury reports

Not the nicest thing to bet on but it is money. A receiver who has a bad hamstring and who is a game time decision to start is not a bad under bet. Most books only require him to be on the field for one play. If that hamstring tightens up, then he is money in the bank. If it is a straight player prop and he does not play then most sportsbooks will just cancel the bet. If it is a SPG then the whole parlay may be cancelled. For SGP parlays I will wait to the last minute to bet and then use a round robin to make sure all of my action isn’t cancelled because one player does not play.

  1. Receiving targets

What is the game flow? Some teams pass more to the tight end while others will go to the wideouts. How about when a team covers vs when it does not cover? Some teams will pass more to the running backs when they are behind while others will try to go deep more. If a player is out, then try and find out which receiver had more targets the last time he didn’t play.

  1. Good sites for prop betting data

Where can I find receiving targets? Try Rotowire. They do a really good job of breaking down the data for individual players for prop betting. Use this to see who how the targets flow from one player to another player each week. Look for a correlation between covering the spread or losing and how that altered a position receiving targets.

For game flow information and defensive insights, I use Football Outsiders. This is one of the best sites for understanding how good a defense really is. A running back may have been had three straight good games but was that against three of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL?

  1. What sportsbooks offer Same Game Parlays?

More are jumping on this action all of the time but to begin the 2022 NFL season here is the list I currently have.

Fanduel – The leader in this area and one of the places I have an account.

Draftkings – A close second but the odds are not shown for individual legs on a bet & I like to see those when I am making a round robin bet.

PointsBet – Like BetMGM it is better than nothing, but it doesn’t have the betting menu of FD or DK.

 Bovada – Located in Canada they offer sports betting to 45 states in the US. Bovada is offering a limited time sign up bonus to new customers.

BetOnline – BetOnline has a great advertising advantage because they offer betting in all 50 states. You don’t have to worry about crossing state lines to make a wager or using a proxy to make your super contest entries. BetOnline is offering a welcome bonus & has an NFL Super Contest

MyBookie – Like Bovada they offer sports betting in 45 states.  MyBookie is offering a 100% welcome bonus up to $1,000

Read more from XSportsbook.com

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