NFL Same Game Parlay & Player Prop Bet Correlations Strategy & Analytics
XSportsbook has collected 13,487 player prop betting results from just the 2021 to 2022 season and analyzed the NFL same game parlay outcomes. As you will see if you are not betting the under you are most likely losing money. However, that was not enough to take full advantage of the player prop betting information so I also ran the data against the spread betting results for every game of the 2021 season.
With this information I was able to correlate the likelyhood of a prop bet going over or under based on if the game either went over or under the AND if a team covered the point spread.
Looking for Player Prop Correlation Results?
FAQ for Same Game Parlay & Player Prop Bet Correlations
- Is a quarterback more likely to go over or under on a passing yards prop when his team covers the spread?
- How much money would I have won or lost by just betting the over on every player prop?
- What is the best player prop to bet the over on when a team covers the spread?
- What is the best player prop to bet the over on when a team loses against the spread?
- What is the correlation between different prop bets and a game spread?
These and many more questions will be answered, and you will be able to see the math behind the answers. I would be willing to bet that most people will not like seeing the results but those of you who care more about winning money than the entertainment of gambling will be able to use these charts to change how you are betting.
Example of NFL Player Proposition Bet & Same Game Parlay
Let’s start with a real line from week one of the 2021 season in a game between the Dallas Cowboys and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Dak Prescott: Prop Bet Completions line 25.5, odds over (-135) & odds under (+105)
One thing that stands out is that the over and under are not at (-110) like you would normally see on game betting lines. This is common on player props because most gamblers want to bet the over so the over gets more action and that can cause the odds to be reduced or the prop bet line total to be moved.
What were the real results?
Dak had 42 completions and went over on his prop.
If you bet $100 on Dak to go over on his prop you would have won $74.07. Of course, a loss would have cost you $100. If the sportsbook had just two people bet, and one took the over and one took the under the sportsbook would have netted $25.93. I won’t go deeply into line shopping right now, but you could have found better than (-135) if you shopped around.
The same game had the Cowboys as 9-point dogs at (-110). They covered the spread so a bet on Dak to go over on his completions prop along with the Cowboys plus the points would have covered on a same game parlay. But would a spread win & an over on completions cover enough during the season to make this bet a regular part of your NFL betting?
A little of the math that I will go into deeper. The percentages are based on the over 13 thousand prop bet results from just last season. When a team covers the game point spread the over on the completions prop covered 40.2% of the time on a straight bet. If you parlayed both a team to cover the spread and a quarterback to go over on his completions prop this bet would have paid off only 19.9% of the time. If they were truly independent betting odds the expectation would be for it to payout close to 25% of the time.
This bet, a team to cover the game point spread and a quarterback to go over on his completions prop has a negative betting correlation.
Are you starting to understand why every sportsbook in the US is pushing same game betting?
Independent Betting Odds vs Correlated Betting Odds
Independent Odds – Odds from two events which do not influence each other. Such as a football game point spread and a basketball game point spread. Since one result has no influence on the other, they are considered independent from each other. This is the typical line that sportsbooks have been posting for years. It is usually listed with a betting line such as Rams line -6, odds (-110) and, Lakers line -4, odds (-110). This two-team parlay would pay out $360 on a $100 wager. The win would be $260, and the bettor would get his $100 bet back.
Correlated Odds – Correlated odds have a mathematical likelihood to win/lose that is altered by one of the two betting results. Such as a running back going over on his rushing yards prop and a team covering the point spread. The results are clear. There is a correlation between a running back going over on his rushing yards prop and a team covering the point spread. If a team covers the game point spread, then a straight bet on a running back going over on his rushing yards prop hit 56.0% of the time last season. A two team same game parlay made on a team covering against the spread and a running back going over on his rushing yards prop bet cashed 28.5% of the time.
Why 25%? Look at the outcomes available.
The four outcomes possible:
- Team Covers & RB Over on Prop
- Team Covers & RB Under on Prop
- Team Fails to Cover & RB Over on Prop
- Team Fails to Cover & RB Under on Prop
If they are independent events, then each one should cover at close to 25.0% of the time. The 28.5% is an advantage for the bettor. Of course, the sportsbook managers know this, and they can adjust the odds to reduce the payout. Did they? You will find out in the same game parlay chart later. Always remember that correlation is not causation. However, you do not always have to know why something is correlated to make money off it.
Same Game Parlay & Player Prop Betting Strategy
Now that the math homework is complete the next question is how do I take advantage of this?
- Same Game Parlay NOT Same Team Parlay
Too many bettors just limit the betting to one side of a game. They are usually fans of a team and they bet the spread with the over and then add on some of their favorite players to go over on a prop. Yes, this hits occasionally just like any lottery bet. If you want to bet for the money instead of entertainment, then look at the “Game Spread Win” & “Came Spread Loss” charts and try to add on bets that will correlate with the spread outcome you are betting on. If you love the Ravens to cover the spread, then add on their opponents running backs to go under on rushing yards.
- Bet the under
Look at the math. Player prop bets often have 80%+ on the over and the sportsbook managers just book those bets and then sit back and laugh at the public. Think about how a game will play out if the side you are on covers. Will the running back on your team have a big day? There is only one ball so if a team can run the ball why would they pass a lot? What will that do to the wide receiver and tight end receptions?
- Correlation is not causation
The math above is the correlation but does not provide causation. Meaning this is not a predictive model that will tell you how each player will do each week. I run into guys with advanced math degrees in the sportsbook every year. They all think they have created a betting model that will make them rich. Yet, every year the casinos continue to make money. I bet on likelihoods. I just decide if I like a team to cover the spread then add on the four or five most correlated props. Not groundbreaking betting models but, I make a profit and I have time for a life.
- Round robin your bets
Making a same game parlay bet that has four or more bets can make for a bad day. How many times have you seen some guy post his bet on Reddit and get 7 out of 8 right. What does that pay? Nothing. To make money consistently you need to start round robbing your bets. One major reason is often overlooked. If you are betting on five players and one gets injured in the first quarter your parlay is blown unless you were betting the under. I have to admit here that I have bet the under on a prop and watched the player limp off the field in the first quarter and the first thought I had was “I cashed”. For those of you who have never made a round robin bet before. It is all combinations of your bet. If you have a four-team parlay and you round robin the bet on the three leg. That would mean you have four 3 team parlays going. Another reason to round robin your bet is that some sportsbooks will cancel the bet if a player doesn’t get into a game. Nothing like watching all of your research going to waste because of one player.
- Several sports betting accounts
There are good reasons for having more than one account. I have been bet limited in the past and sportsbooks do not tell you in advance that your betting limit has been reduced. I had one NFL Sunday that I found out an hour before kickoff that I could only make $50 straight bets. I had another sportsbook refuse my round robin bets. What did I do? I went to my other books and bet. I got my action in and then went back to the sportsbooks that limited me and bitched at them. They didn’t up my limits, but I got my action in and I was able to tell the sportsbook manager how ball less he was..
If you are betting with an app then the sportsbook tracks everything you do. They know if you are wining. They know what type of bet you are winning on. Win three or four weeks in a row and you will try to make a bet at Fanduel only to find out that you are now limited to $2 bets. The response will always be the same. We are in the entertainment business and do not accept professional bettors. What is a professional? Anyone who wins too much. I use five onshore sportsbooks and three offshore books. Laying my action off at different books keeps anyone of them from losing too much money.
Another vital reason to have more than one betting account. Line shopping. The chart on Same Game Parlay Adjusted odds provides a baseline to measure the odds offered by a sportsbook. The odds on these bets are all over the place. Not only the odds but also the lines can be different. One sportsbook might have Josh Allen over 285.5 passing yards while another has him over 290.5 passing yards. If the odds are the same, then take advantage of the better line. But what if they are not the same. If the book that has Allen at 290.5 passing yards is also offering a higher return on my bet. Then I might divide my money up between the two sportsbooks based on the return.
A very good reason to have several accounts. The new customer bonuses. Use them. Sign up at 2 new sportsbooks and use the bonus on opposite sides of the same game. If the Ravens are 3.5-point favorites over the Browns. Bet the Ravens -3.5 at one book and the Browns +3.5 at the other.
- Injury reports
Not the nicest thing to bet on but it is money. A receiver who has a bad hamstring and who is a game time decision to start is not a bad under bet. Most books only require him to be on the field for one play. If that hamstring tightens up, then he is money in the bank. If it is a straight player prop and he does not play then most sportsbooks will just cancel the bet. If it is a SPG then the whole parlay may be cancelled. For SGP parlays I will wait to the last minute to bet and then use a round robin to make sure all of my action isn’t cancelled because one player does not play.
- Receiving targets
What is the game flow? Some teams pass more to the tight end while others will go to the wideouts. How about when a team covers vs when it does not cover? Some teams will pass more to the running backs when they are behind while others will try to go deep more. If a player is out, then try and find out which receiver had more targets the last time he didn’t play.
- Good sites for prop betting data
Where can I find receiving targets? Try Rotowire. They do a really good job of breaking down the data for individual players for prop betting. Use this to see who how the targets flow from one player to another player each week. Look for a correlation between covering the spread or losing and how that altered a position receiving targets.
For game flow information and defensive insights, I use Football Outsiders. This is one of the best sites for understanding how good a defense really is. A running back may have been had three straight good games but was that against three of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL?
- What sportsbooks offer Same Game Parlays?
More are jumping on this action all of the time but to begin the 2022 NFL season here is the list I currently have.
Fanduel – The leader in this area and one of the places I have an account.
Draftkings – A close second but the odds are not shown for individual legs on a bet & I like to see those when I am making a round robin bet.
PointsBet – Like BetMGM it is better than nothing, but it doesn’t have the betting menu of FD or DK.
Bovada – Offers sports betting to 45 states in the US.
BetOnline – BetOnline has a great advertising advantage because they offer betting in all 50 states.
MyBookie – Like Bovada they offer sports betting in 45 states.
