NFL Division Playoff Games Same Game Parlay Predictions

NFL Division Games Prop Bet Picks & Prop Bet Correlation 2024

Houston Texans vs Baltimore Ravens Prop Bet & Same Game Parlay Picks

The Texans travel to Baltimore for a cold weather game as 9.5 point dogs. One thing in the Texans favor is that the Ravens have similar strengths and weaknesses on the defensive side of the ball as the Browns had. CJ Stroud was able to buy enough time for his receivers to get open against a Cleveland defense that is dependent on the pass rush to coverup for a relatively weak secondary. The Ravens have a similar problem on defense. You only need to look at what the Rams were able to do against Baltimore to know that there will be receivers open if Stroud can avoid the initial wave of Ravens blitzers.

Will the Texans win outright like they did against the Browns? I don’t see it happening this year but they will be able to keep it close and to no more than a one score game.

Correlation bets : Texans +7.5 (+104) on the alternate spread line.

What happens when the Texans cover the point spread and the Ravens do not?

CJ Stroud Passing Yards Prop Bet Results

When the Texans have covered the game point spread. CJ Stroud has gone over on his passing yards prop 7 times and under 2 times. This team is dependent on Stroud. The game narrative also lends itself to Stroud going over. For the Texans to get out to an early lead Stroud will need to make a few big plays like Stafford did against the Ravens a few weeks ago. However, if the Texans fall behind early. It is a playoff game so expect Stroud to pick up yards with a high pass volume effort. I would also look at alternative passing yards props on Stroud up to 275+ for straight bets.

Lamar Jackson Passing Yards Prop Bet Results

When the Ravens failed to cover the point spread. Lamar Jackson went over on his passing yards prop 4 times and under 1 time. This does not mean that the Ravens lost the game. It just means that in closer games the Ravens will be more likely to trust Jackson passing the ball more than they have in the past. For comparison. When the Ravens cover the game point spread, Lamar Jackson has gone over on his passing yards prop 5 times and under 6 times.

Nico Collins Receiving Yards Prop Bet Results

When the Texans have covered the game spread, Collins has gone over on his receiving yards prop 6 times and under 2 times. Add this to what the Rams did against Baltimore with both, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua going over the 77.5 yard line that Nico has in this game. Yes, the Ravens will get to Stroud several times in the game but that all out pressure will not always get to the mobile quarterback and when it does not. Look for a big play by Nico Collins.

Ravens 3rd Quarter Spread

The Ravens have been one of the best teams in the NFL at making halftime adjustments and that shows up in how they have done against the spread in the third quarter. At home this season the Ravens have covered the 3rd quarter spread 8 times and lost against the spread just 1 time. It might seem counter intuitive to take the Ravens for the 3rd quarter and the Texans for the game. However, a lead after three quarters does not mean a lead at the end of the game. If it means the Ravens play conservative in the 4th quarter while the Texans are trying for garbage points. That still counts when it is time to cash.

CJ Stroud Passing Yards Prop Bet

  • Team: Houston Texans
  • Position: Quarterback
  • Prop Bet: Passing Yards
  • Betting Line: 235.5 o(-135)

Lamar Jackson Passing Yards Prop Bet

  • Team: Baltimore Ravens
  • Position: Quarterback
  • Prop Bet: Passing Yards
  • Betting Line: 226.5 (-115)

Nico Collins Receiving Yards Prop Bet

  • Team: Houston Texans
  • Position: Wide Receiver
  • Prop Bet: Receiving Yards
  • Betting Line: 77.5 (-115)

Texans Alternate Game Spread

  • Team: Houston Texans
  • Position: Team
  • Bet: Alternate Game Spread
  • Betting Line: +7.5. (+104)

Ravens 3rd Quarter Spread

  • Team: Baltimore Ravens
  • Position: Team
  • Bet: 3rd Quarter Spread
  • Betting Line: -2.5. (-130)

Straight Bets :

  • CJ Stroud Passing Yards OVER 235.5 (-135)
  • Lamar Jackson Passing Yards OVER 226.5 (-115)
  • Nico Collins Receiving Yards OVER 77.5 (-115)
  • Texans Alternate Game Spread +7.5 (+104)
  • Ravens 3rd Quarter Spread -2.5 (-130)

Correlation Bet : +2000

  • CJ Stroud Passing Yards OVER 235.5 (-135)
  • Lamar Jackson Passing Yards OVER 226.5 (-115)
  • Nico Collins Receiving Yards OVER 77.5 (-115)
  • Texans Alternate Game Spread +7.5 (+104)
  • Ravens 3rd Quarter Spread -2.5 (-130)

As always with same game parlays. You will see that I also straight bet my picks. I will also round robin my same game parlays. There isn’t an easy way to do this so I just stand at the kiosk making one parlay at a time. Time consuming but when I get 3 out of 5 or 4 out of 5 right. I am still making a profit.

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Green Bay Packers vs San Francisco 49ers Correlation Bets

Correlation bets based on the Packers covering the 7.5 alternative game point spread.

Green Bay to Cover The Game Point Spread

The Packers have been playing better and better as the season went on and the young receivers became more immersed in the offense. I know the 49ers have had some big wins this season but they have also had some big losses. This is a team that can be passed on.

The key here is the 49ers are giving too many points. This is a spread bet on a money line bet. I have the game as the 49ers -6.5 points so I am taking the dog to cover and I am correlating my bets to a Packers win ATS. I am also taking the Packers at +7.5 at +109 on the alternate betting line. As long as I can get more than a touchdown and a positive return I am on the Packers to cover.

Jordan Love Prop Bet Correlations

One thing I like about correlation betting is that some are just obvious. When the Packers cover the game point spread, Jordan Love has gone over on his passing touchdowns prop 8 times and under just 1 time. On his passing yards prop he has also gone over 8 times and under just 1 time. That is what I like to see.

Brock Purdy Prop Bet Correlations

Brock has also had an obvious betting correlation. When the San Francisco 49ers fail to cover the game point spread. Brock has gone over on his interceptions prop 5 times and under just 1 time.

On the other side of this. If you like the 49ers to cover the 9.5 point spread. When the 49ers cover the game point spread Brock has gone over on his interceptions prop 1 time and under 8 times. That is a strong correlation to use to bump up your return on your bet.

Brandon Aiyuk Prop Bet Correlations

This one is a little unexpected but if you think about it there is a legitimate narrative to the correlation. When the 49ers lose against the point spread. Brandon Aiyuk has gone over on his receptions prop 5 times and under 1 time. Much like Brock, he consistently covers his prop when the 49ers are in close games or are losing.

Jordan Love Passing Yards Prop Bet

  • Team: Green Bay Packers
  • Position: Quarterback
  • Prop Bet: Passing Yards
  • Betting Line: 249.5 (-115)

Jordan Love Passing Touchdowns Prop Bet

  • Team: Green Bay Packers
  • Position: Quarterback
  • Prop Bet: Passing Touchdowns
  • Betting Line: 1.5 (-115)

Brock Purdy Interceptions Prop Bet

  • Team: San Francisco 49ers
  • Position: Quarterback
  • Prop Bet: Interceptions
  • Betting Line: 0.5 (-105)

Brandon Aiyuk Receptions Prop Bet

  • Team: San Francisco 49ers
  • Position: Wide Receiver
  • Prop Bet: Receptions
  • Betting Line: 4.5 (-125)

Packers Alternate Game Spread

  • Team: Green Bay Packers
  • Position: Team
  • Prop Bet: Alternate Game Spread
  • Betting Line: +7.5 (+109)

Straight Bets :

  • Jordan Love Passing Yards Prop OVER 249.5 (-115)
  • Jordan Love Passing Touchdowns Prop OVER 1.5 (-115)
  • Brandon Aiyuk Receptions Prop OVER 4.5 (-125)
  • Brock Purdy Interceptions Prop OVER 0.5 (-105)
  • Game Spread Packers +7.5 (+109)

Correlation Bet : +1000

  • Jordan Love Passing Yards Prop OVER 249.5 (-115)
  • Jordan Love Passing Touchdowns Prop OVER 1.5 (-115)
  • Brandon Aiyuk Receptions Prop OVER 4.5 (-125)
  • Brock Purdy Interceptions Prop OVER 0.5 (-105)
  • Game Spread Packers +7.5 (+109)

 

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Kansas City Chiefs  vs Buffalo Bills Prop Bet Picks & Same Game Parlay Prediction Division Playoff Game

Correlation bets based on main bet which is the game total to go under 45.5 (-110)

Game Total Under

Kansas City has been one of the better NFL defenses in the league and slowly the Chiefs offense has adjusted to playing a little more conservatively. Add to that, the Chiefs receivers drop balls during nice weather. What will happen with cold hands in this game. Against the Dolphins the Chiefs managed just 26 points with 2 touchdowns and 4 field goals. In past seasons those field goals would have been touchdowns. The Chiefs offense has more problems than just dropped receptions. The running game is not going to dominate and against a Bills defense that is better against the pass than the run this will be a missed opportunity. Another reason for the Chiefs offensive decline is Travis Kelce. Those injuries and age have added up. He is still a good receiver at times but he is on the sidelines too much to dominate a game.

The Bills offensive has been explosive and turnover prone. In a game where the Bills defense will be able to keep the Chiefs from scoring on big plays and forcing them to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns. There is no need to get too risky with the ball.

Patrick Mahomes Prop Bet Correlations

This one might not be what you expect. When Chiefs games have gone under the total. Patrick Mahomes has gone over on his passing attempts prop 8 times and under just 2 times. One nice thing about Chiefs wide receivers inability to hold onto the ball. It increases the number of passing attempts Mahomes for a scoring drive. No more long passes for touchdowns. Instead there are a lot of short or mid range passes and that adds up over the course of a game.

Another nice correlation with Mahomes and Chiefs game totals. When Chiefs games have gone under the total. Patrick Mahomes has gone under on his passing touchdowns prop 10 times and over just 1 times. This gives you an idea of how little anyone else on this offense is contributing.

Josh Allen Prop Bet Correlations

Josh Allen has been a turnover machine this season. No reason to think it will suddenly end against a good Chiefs pass defense. When Bills games have gone under the total. Josh Allen has gone over 0.5 interceptions 10 times and under just 1 time. That is a correlation worth putting a little money on.

Travis Kelce Prop Bet Correlations

Travis Kelce was once the best tight end in football. Now he is one of those players that played the game one too many seasons. He will still make some plays but not enough to go over on his expectations by the Taylor Swift crowd. Lets face it, Kelce is a good bet against this season and his stats when the Chiefs games go under the total are an example. When Chiefs game totals have gone under, Kelce has gone over on his receiving yards prop 3 times and under 7 times.

Patrick Mahomes Passing Attempts Prop Bet

  • Team: Kansas City Chiefs
  • Position : Quarterback
  • Prop : Passing Attempts
  • Betting Line: 35.5  (-105)

Patrick Mahomes Passing Touchdowns Prop Bet

  • Team: Kansas City Chiefs
  • Position : Quarterback
  • Prop : Passing Touchdowns
  • Betting Line: 1.5  (+110)

Josh Allen Interceptions Prop Bet

  • Team: Buffalo Bills
  • Position: Quarterback
  • Prop : Interceptions
  • Betting Line: 0.5 (-105)

Game Total

  • Team: Chiefs vs Bills
  • Position : Team
  • Prop : Game Total
  • Betting Line: 45.5 (-110)

Straight Bets :

  • Patrick Mahomes Passing Attempts OVER 35.5 (-105)
  • Patrick Mahomes Passing Touchdowns UNDER 1.5 (+110) 
  • Josh Allen Interceptions OVER 0.5 (-105)
  • Game Total UNDER 45.5 (-110) 

Correlation Bet : +1000

  • Patrick Mahomes Passing Attempts OVER 35.5 (-105)
  • Patrick Mahomes Passing Touchdowns UNDER 1.5 (+110) 
  • Josh Allen Interceptions OVER 0.5 (-105)
  • Game Total UNDER 45.5 (-110) 

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Detroit Lions Correlation Bets

Primary bet : Bucs vs Lions OVER 49.0 points.

Neither team is going to be able to run the ball consistantly enough to control the game. This will leave both quarterbacks throwing the ball 35+ times and a few big passing plays will lead to quick scores. By big passing plays I include interceptions. Even if the int isn’t a pick six, it will still set up the other teams offense in good field position.

Jared Goff Prop Bet Correlations

Looking for an obvious correlation to boost your bet on the game total going over? When Lions games have gone over the point total, Goff has gone over on his passing touchdowns prop 8 times and under 3 times.

Rachaad White Prop Bet Correlations

Rachaad White is a duel threat at running back but he really comes into play when game totals go over. He went over all 6 games where the combined rushing yards and receiving yards prop was offered when Bucs games went over on the total. I always prefer the combined yardage prop for a running back that can also catch the ball because if he pops a big run or a long reception, they both count.

Amon Ra St. Brown Prop Bet Correlations

Not the most common prop bet but it pays like all of the rest. When Detroit Lions games have gone over on the point total. Amon Ra St. Brown has gone over on his longest reception prop 7 times and under 2 times. I do like him to get at least one long reception against a Bucs defense that was lucky not to face AJ Brown last week.

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Jared Goff Passing Touchdowns Prop

  • Team : Detroit Lions
  • Position : Quarterback
  • Prop Bet : Passing Touchdowns
  • Betting Line : 1.5 (-166)

Rashaad White Combined Yard Prop

  • Team : Detroit Lions
  • Position : Running Back
  • Prop Bet : Combined Rushing & Receiving Yards
  • Betting Line : 80.5 (-115)

Amon Ra St. Brown Longest Recption

  • Team : Detroit Lions
  • Position : Wide Receiver
  • Prop Bet : Longest Recption
  • Betting Line : 25.5 (-115)

Game Total

  • Team : Both
  • Position : Total
  • Prop Bet : Game Total OVER
  • Betting Line : 49.0 (-110)

Straight Bets :

  • Jared Goff : Passing Touchdowns OVER 1.5 (-166)
  • Rashaad White : Combined Rushing & Receiving Yards 80.5 (–15)
  • Amon Ra St. Brown : Longest Reception 25.5 (-115)
  • Game Total OVER 49.0 (-110)

Correlation Bet : +272 – Note

  • Jared Goff : Passing Touchdowns OVER 1.5 (-166)
  • Rashaad White : Combined Rushing & Receiving Yards 80.5 (–15)
  • Amon Ra St. Brown : Longest Reception 25.5 (-115)
  • Game Total OVER 49.0 (-110)

Note: The odds for all four on one same game parlay have not yet been offered. Sportsbooks will sometimes hold off to limit liability on bets. The +272 does NOT include the Amon Ra St. Brown longest reception prop bet in the parlay. I will keep shopping around until I find all of them or I will round robin them at different sportsbooks. This is one key to prop betting. Have several sportsbook accounts so you can shop around.

I have both onshore and offshore accounts so when a line isn’t offered at one book I just move on to the next one to make my bet.

Bet BOTH the straight bets and the correlation bets if you are trying to make sports betting a part time or full time job. If you are just looking for a little entertainment then placing a small bet on the same game parlay can be fun. I do both. A majority of my money is on straight bets but I also put down a little on the Same Game Parlay.

If you want to understand why and how much of a correlation there is. Please read my article

 

NFL Same Game Parlay & Player Prop Bet Correlations & Strategy

 

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NFL Player Prop Bet Model

NFL player prop bet picks are based on our exclusive betting model with over 75,000 player prop bet results since the 2015 season.There are many ways to bet on players in the NFL. Bet on a quarterbacks passing yards or interceptions. A running backs rushing or receiving yards. Not only are there more props to bet on but there are also more players to bet on. In 2015 when we started collecting player prop bet results. There were just over 6,000 prop bet results for the regular season. Compare that with over 15,000 player prop bet results for the 2022 season. In 2015 only the primary running back had props on him. Many tight ends didn’t have props to wager on. This all changed as fantasy football took off and people migrated over to making real money NFL bets on players.

NFL Player Prop Bet Strategy – Bet the Under

Somethings have not changed over the years. There is still a built in advantage for betting the under on NFL player props. Most fans want to bet the over and the sportsbook managers will take advantage of this by shading the lines a little bit. If Patrick Mahomes should have a passing yards prop of 285.5 yards. The books will put out a 290.5. They know the fans will still want to bet the over. If you are in it for entertainment then make the bet. However, if you are in it for the money then take advantage of the 3% built in edge for under bets.

Note: Gambling should be entertaining. Please do not gamble more than you can afford to lose. If you are having problems controlling your gambling please contact the National Council on Problem Gambling.

NFL Prop Bet Predictions 2023 will based on our exclusive betting model with over 75,000 player prop bet results since the 2017 season.There are many ways to bet on players in the NFL. One thing most prop bettors do not look at is how have other players done against an opposing defense on the same prop. It is a vital part of our NFL player prop prediction model.

As always, shop around for the best odds. I have 3 US sportsbooks and 3 offshore sportsbooks. The odds below are the first out so look for better odds.

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