NFL Correlations & Same Game Parlay Picks 2023 Week 5
Week 5 NFL Prop Bet Picks 2023
Thursday Night Football Correlation Bets
Washington Commanders vs Chicago Bears
Thursday Night Football has the Washington Commanders visiting the Chicago Bears. Not exactly two teams you want to see on Thursday Night but you can still bet on it and there are some good correlations with the game prediction.
When making correlation bets the first thing to start with is what game outcome do you like. Spread or totals bet? Maybe both?
For this game I like the game total to go over 44.5 points and my same game parlay bets are based on this. However, if you like a different outcome then please use our NFL correlations betting database to do research and find the player prop bet that matches your game prediction.
For these picks I used the database to Choose Total from Splits and Over from Cor “correlations”.
Justin Fields
- Team : Chicago Bears
- Position : Quarterback
- Prop Bet : Rushing yards
- Betting Line : 47.5 0(-130) u(100)
Straight Bets :
- Game Total : OVER 44.5 (-110) Winner
- Justin Fields Rushing Yards Prop : OVER 47.5 (-130) Winner
Correlation Bet : Winner
- Game Total OVER
- Justin Fields Rushing Yards Prop OVER
- Draftkings +228
Sunday picks will be released on Saturday
Want to do your own research? Use our SGP Database for 2022 FREE
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Sunday NFL Correlations Bets
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills
To be played in Europe with a 6:30am Las Vegas Time kickoff.
Josh Allen has an interesting game total and rushing yards correlation. For the 2021 and 2022 seasons. When the Buffalo Bills game total went under, Josh Allen went over on his rushing yards prop 17 times and under just 2 times. That is the kind of consistency I like. What really got me about this bet is it has suck a high correlation that the odds should be less than 2.6×1. Instead I got 2.7×1 at Caesars.
Josh Allen
- Team: Buffalo Bills
- Position: Quarterback
- Rushing Yards
- Betting Line: 33.5 0(-117)
Straight Bets :
- Josh Allen OVER on Rushing Yards 33.5 (-117)
- Game Total UNDER 48.5 (-110)
Correlation Bet : +2.70
- Game Total UNDER
- Josh Allen OVER Rushing Yards OVER
New York Giants vs Miami Dolphins
This game has a very obvious prop bet and game total correlation. While it doesn’t pay as much as the one in the Jags vs Bills game I am still on it.
When the Dolphins games go over the point total over the last two seasons. Tua has gone over on his passing yards prop 8 times and under 1 time. Compare that to when the game total goes under. He went over on his passing yards prop 7 times and under 8 times.
Tua Tagovailoa
- Team: Miami Dolphins
- Position: Quarterback
- Prop Bet: Passing Yards
- Betting Line: 286.5 0(-114)
Straight Bets :
- Game Total : OVER 47.5 (-110)
- Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards Prop : OVER
Correlation Bet : +191
- Game Total OVER
- Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards Prop OVER
Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Lamar is a running back playing quarterback. Maybe? However, when he does pass the ball well the Ravens score a lot. When Lamar goes over on his passing yards prop, the Ravens games have gone over 9 times and under just 1 time. That is a nice odds boost on the game bet.
Lamar Jackson
- Team: Baltimore Ravens
- Position: Quarterback
- Prop Bet: Passing Yards
- Betting Line: 202.5 0(-127)
Straight Bets :
- Game Total : OVER 38.0 (-110)
- Lamar Jackson Passing Yards Prop : OVER 202.5 (-127)
Correlation Bet : +197
- Game Total OVER
- Lamar Jackson OVER
Kansas City Chiefs vs Minnesota Vikings
Kirk Cousins may win games or lose games but one thing is for sure. He will pass a lot. He has been a good bet to cover the over on his passing attempts prop for two straight seasons. I also like this game to be a quarterback dominated game so I am also on Patrick Mahomes. For him the over on his passing yards prop has a solid correlation since the running game has dropped off.
Kirk Cousins
- Team: Minnesota Vikings
- Position: Quarterback
- Prop Bet: Passing Attempts
- Betting Line: 39.5 0(-111)
Patrick Mahomes
- Team: Kansas City Chiefs
- Position: Quarterback
- Prop Bet: Passing Yards
- Betting Line: 291.5 0(-115)
Straight Bets :
- Kirk Cousins Passing Attempts : OVER 39.5 (-111)
- Patrick Mahones Passing Yards Prop : OVER 291.5 (-115)
Correlation Bet : +260
- Kirk Cousins OVER
- Patrick Mahomes OVER
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NFL Prop Bet Predictions 2023 will based on our exclusive betting model with over 75,000 player prop bet results since the 2017 season.There are many ways to bet on players in the NFL. One thing most prop bettors do not look at is how have other players done against an opposing defense on the same prop. It is a vital part of our NFL player prop prediction model.
As always, shop around for the best odds. I have 3 US sportsbooks and 3 offshore sportsbooks. The odds below are the first out so look for better odds.
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NFL Player Prop Bet Model
NFL player prop bet picks are based on our exclusive betting model with over 75,000 player prop bet results since the 2015 season.There are many ways to bet on players in the NFL. Bet on a quarterbacks passing yards or interceptions. A running backs rushing or receiving yards. Not only are there more props to bet on but there are also more players to bet on. In 2015 when we started collecting player prop bet results. There were just over 6,000 prop bet results for the regular season. Compare that with over 15,000 player prop bet results for the 2022 season. In 2015 only the primary running back had props on him. Many tight ends didn’t have props to wager on. This all changed as fantasy football took off and people migrated over to making real money NFL bets on players.
NFL Player Prop Bet Strategy – Bet the Under
Somethings have not changed over the years. There is still a built in advantage for betting the under on NFL player props. Most fans want to bet the over and the sportsbook managers will take advantage of this by shading the lines a little bit. If Patrick Mahomes should have a passing yards prop of 285.5 yards. The books will put out a 290.5. They know the fans will still want to bet the over. If you are in it for entertainment then make the bet. However, if you are in it for the money then take advantage of the 3% built in edge for under bets.
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