NFL AFC & NFC Championship Games Prop Bet Predictions

NFL Championship Games Prop Bet Picks & Prop Bet Correlation 2024

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Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens Prop Bet & Same Game Parlay Picks

Forget about the weather. Yes, I know rain with winds 10+ mph. Both of these quarterbacks have played in these types of games before and a slick field should help them score. Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson can extend plays and give wide receivers time to make a second move downfield. It is the defensive back that is in danger in this situation. One slip by a db and the a big play is coming. Look for several pick pass plays setup by the mobility of each quarterback.

Patrick Mahomes as a dog? Have to take the 4 points and a quarterback who has been a Super Bowl champion. I still can’t get past what Matthew Stafford was able to do to the Ravens defense. Mahomes will do more.

Correlation bets : Chiefs +4 (-110)

What happens when the Chiefs cover the point spread and the Ravens do not?

Rasheed Rice Receiving Yards Prop Bet Results

Rasheed has been a good over bet on his receiving yards props this season. He has gone over 12 times and under 5 times. Last week he went under in Buffalo as did Patrick Mahomes with his passing yards prop. This week he is in a good position to take advantage of a vulnerable Ravens secondary. When the Chiefs cover the point spread Rice has gone over on his receiving yards prop 7 times and under just 3 times.

Zay Flowers Receptions Prop Bet Results

When the Ravens failed to cover the point spread. Zay Flowers has gone over on his receptions prop 5 times and under 0 times. He gets targets when the Ravens are behind or in a close game.

Ravens 3rd Quarter Spread

The Ravens have been one of the best teams in the NFL at making halftime adjustments and that shows up in how they have done against the spread in the third quarter. At home this season the Ravens have covered the 3rd quarter spread 9 times and lost against the spread just 1 time. It might seem counter intuitive to take the Ravens for the 3rd quarter and the Chiefs for the game. However, who is better and coming back in the 4th quarter of a game than Patrick Mahomes?

Rasheed Rice Receiving Yards Prop Bet

  • Team: Kansas City Chiefs
  • Position: Wide Receiver
  • Prop Bet: Receiving Yards
  • Betting Line: 59.5 o(-115)

Zay Flowers Receptions Prop Bet

  • Team: Baltimore Ravens
  • Position: Wide Receiver
  • Prop Bet: Receptions
  • Betting Line: 4.5 0(+114)

Game Spread Bet

  • Team: Kansas City Chiefs
  • Position: Team
  • Prop Bet: Game Spread
  • Betting Line: +4.0 (-110)

Ravens 3rd Quarter Spread

  • Team: Baltimore Ravens
  • Position: Team
  • Bet: 3rd Quarter Spread
  • Betting Line: -0.5. (+110)

Straight Bets :

  • Rasheed Rice Receiving Yards OVER 59.5 (-115)
  • Zay Flowers Receptions OVER 4.5 (+114)
  • Chiefs Game Spread 4.5 (-110)
  • Ravens 3rd Quarter Spread -0.5 (+110)

Correlation Bet : +1800

  • Rasheed Rice Receiving Yards OVER 59.5 (-115)
  • Zay Flowers Receptions OVER 4.5 (+114)
  • Chiefs Game Spread 4.5 (-110)
  • Ravens 3rd Quarter Spread -0.5 (+110)

As always with same game parlays. You will see that I also straight bet my picks. I will also round robin my same game parlays. There isn’t an easy way to do this so I just stand at the kiosk making one parlay at a time. Time consuming but when I get 3 out of 5 or 4 out of 5 right. I am still making a profit.

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Detroit Lions vs San Francisco 49ers Prop Bet Picks & Same Game Parlay Correlation Bets

Correlation bets based on the Lions covering the 7.5 game spread

Lions to Cover The Game Point Spread

The 49ers have gotten a lot of good press this season and they are the number one seed in the NFC. However, they were outplayed by a Packers team that found a way to lose a game they should have won straight up. The Packers did cover the point spread and I like a Lions team to at least do the same this week. The Lions are a better team than Green Bay and that will show up in a game that will go down to the last minute. Take that points as long as you can get the Lions +7 or more.

Brock Purdy Passing Yards Prop Bet Correlations

Brock doesn’t throw for a lot of yards unless the 49ers are not covering the game point spread. When the 49ers fail to cover the game point spread. Brock Purdy has gone over on his passing yards prop 6 times and under just 1 times. Yes, it is obvious that if the 49ers are behind he will throw more. Good, the stats back up the narrative.

Jahmyr Gibbs Rushing Yards Prop Bet Correlations

He has been used more and more. In my opinion he still hasn’t been used enough. He can break a long one against anyone including the 49ers. The Packers were able to run against the 49ers defense last week and the Lions will be able to do the same. He is cheap at anything under 59.5 yards.

When the Lions cover the point spread Jahmyr Gibbs has gone over on his rushing yards prop 8 times and under just 2 times.

George Kittle Receiving Yards Prop Bet Correlations

You would expect Kittle to do better when the 49ers cover the point spread. Actually, it is just the opposite. When the 49ers cover the game point spread Kittle has gone over on his receiving yards prop 5 times and under 4 times. However, when the 49ers lose against the game point spread. George Kittle has gone over on his receiving yards prop 6 times and under just 1 time. Look for Kittle to have another big game against the Lions just like he did against the Packers.

Brock Purdy Passing Yards Prop Bet

  • Team: San Francisco 49ers
  • Position: Quarterback
  • Prop Bet: Passing Yards
  • Betting Line: 277.5 (-115)

Jahmyr Gibbs Rushing Yards Prop Bet

  • Team: Detroit Lions
  • Position: Running Back
  • Prop Bet: Rushing Yards
  • Betting Line: 48.5 (-110)

George Kittle Receiving Yards Prop Bet

  • Team: San Francisco 49ers
  • Position: Quarterback
  • Prop Bet: Interceptions
  • Betting Line: 61.5 (-115)

Lions Game Spread

  • Team: Detroit Lions
  • Position: Team
  • Prop Bet: Game Spread
  • Betting Line: +7.5 (-115)

Straight Bets :

  • Brock Purdy Passing Yards Prop OVER 277.5 (-115)
  • Jahmyr Gibbs Rushing Yards Prop OVER 48.5 (-110)
  • George Kittle Receiving Yards Prop OVER 61.5 (-115)
  • Game Spread Lions+7.5 (-120)

Correlation Bet : +700

  • Brock Purdy Passing Yards Prop OVER 277.5 (-115)
  • Jahmyr Gibbs Rushing Yards Prop OVER 48.5 (-110)
  • George Kittle Receiving Yards Prop OVER 61.5 (-115)
  • Game Spread Lions+7.5 (-120)

 

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NFL Player Prop Bet Model

NFL player prop bet picks are based on our exclusive betting model with over 75,000 player prop bet results since the 2015 season.There are many ways to bet on players in the NFL. Bet on a quarterbacks passing yards or interceptions. A running backs rushing or receiving yards. Not only are there more props to bet on but there are also more players to bet on. In 2015 when we started collecting player prop bet results. There were just over 6,000 prop bet results for the regular season. Compare that with over 15,000 player prop bet results for the 2022 season. In 2015 only the primary running back had props on him. Many tight ends didn’t have props to wager on. This all changed as fantasy football took off and people migrated over to making real money NFL bets on players.

NFL Player Prop Bet Strategy – Bet the Under

Somethings have not changed over the years. There is still a built in advantage for betting the under on NFL player props. Most fans want to bet the over and the sportsbook managers will take advantage of this by shading the lines a little bit. If Patrick Mahomes should have a passing yards prop of 285.5 yards. The books will put out a 290.5. They know the fans will still want to bet the over. If you are in it for entertainment then make the bet. However, if you are in it for the money then take advantage of the 3% built in edge for under bets.

Note: Gambling should be entertaining. Please do not gamble more than you can afford to lose. If you are having problems controlling your gambling please contact the National Council on Problem Gambling.

NFL Prop Bet Predictions 2023 will based on our exclusive betting model with over 75,000 player prop bet results since the 2017 season.There are many ways to bet on players in the NFL. One thing most prop bettors do not look at is how have other players done against an opposing defense on the same prop. It is a vital part of our NFL player prop prediction model.

As always, shop around for the best odds. I have 3 US sportsbooks and 3 offshore sportsbooks. The odds below are the first out so look for better odds.

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