Commanders vs Bears Same Game Parlay Picks
Carson Wentz has gone over on his completions props all five times this season. It hasn’t been pretty as the Commanders will run the ball a lot in the first half and then go to more play action in the second half. One frustrating part of betting the over on the completions prop is watching Wentz look deep when there are wide open receivers short and then see him getting sacked. Wentz can easily beat the over again if he just gets his head out of his ass. A good trend is that last season Taylor Heinicke went over on 9 completions props and under on 5. This means it isn’t just the quarterback but it is part of the offensive system.
Justin Fields is on the opposite end. He has gone over on just 1 completions prop and under on 4. The reason isn’t just inaccurate passing as he has also gone under on passing attempts all 5 times this season. The Bears offensive system is designed around the run and until Fields can become more accurate as a passer the offense will not be throwing the ball more.
Look at the change in Wentz going from the Colts to the Commanders. When prop betting the offensive system matters a lot. This is one of the keys to making adjustments in the betting model.
Antonio Gibson has been a strong under play this season. He has gone under on all 5 rushing yards and rushing attempts props. A good sign that the Commanders are putting the ball in Carson Wentz hands to win or lose the game. This also correlates to J.D. McKissic going over on 4 out of 5 receptions props this season. Another benefiturary of the offensive system for the Commanders is Logan Thomas. He has gone over on 8 of 11 props this season. Compare that to last season when he went under on 76.5% of his prop bets.
Commanders vs Bears Player Prop & Game Predictions
Score Prediction : Commanders 23 – Bears 16
Player Prop Bet Predictions using Bovada Odds
- Commanders -1 (-110)
- Carson Wentz Completions OVER 20.5 (-120)
- Justin Fields Completions UNDER 13.5 (+100)
- Antonio Gibson Rushing Yards UNDER 18.5 (-115)
- J.D. McKissic Receptions OVER 2.5 (-160)
- Most Rushing Yards in the game Justin Fields +750
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